نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
استادیار گروه علوم سیاسی دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران
چکیده
شواهد موجود حاکی از فقدان هرگونه درگیری جدی در شمالگان است، اما تلاش مسکو برای تقویت دارایی ها و مواضع نظامی خود در این منطقه از سوی محافل رسانه ای و سیاسی غرب به طور عمده به نظامی گری تعبیر شده است. با این همه، تأکید تمامی اسناد راهبردی روسیه بر انتفاع اقتصادی روسیه از منابع و مسیرهای ناوبری شمالگان است و به هیچ تهدید نظامی خاصی در این منطقه ارجاع نمی دهند. این نوشتار با هدف ارزیابی ماهیت حضور و گسترش نظامی مسکو در ناحیه شمالگان فدراسیون روسیه به منظور کشف نسبت آن با دو مقوله نوسازی نظامی و نظامی گری تدوین شده است. بنابراین پرسش محوری مقاله این است که آیا «ماهیت حضور و گسترش توانایی های نظامی روسیه در شمالگان طی یک دهه اخیر به طور عمده مبتنی بر نوسازی نظامی بوده و یا نظامی گری؟و چرا؟» پاسخ اولیه این بوده است که «ماهیت حضور و گسترش توانایی های نظامی روسیه در شمالگان طی یک دهه اخیر به دلیل اهداف راهبردی مسکو (شامل دفاع از حق حاکمیت این کشور در ناحیه شمالگان فدراسیون روسیه در برابر ناتو، حمایت از منافع اقتصادی و کشتیرانی و بهره مندی از آنها و رسمیت بخشیدن به نقش روسیه بهعنوان یک قدرت بزرگ) مبتنی بر نوسازی نظامی و نه نظامی گری بوده است». یافته های مقاله نیز با روش توصیفی-تحلیلی و توسل به دوگانه تدافعی-تهاجمی تحت رویکرد نظری نوواقعگرایی صورت پذیرفته است.
کلیدواژه‌ها
- قنبری، سمیه (1396)، «محدودیتهای مشارکت روسیه و چین در شمالگان»، فصلنامه مطالعات آسیای مرکزی و قفقاز، دوره بیستوسوم، شماره 99، صص 125-153.
- قنبری، سمیه (1397)، «تحلیلی بر تمایز رفتاری روسیه در اوکراین و شمالگان»، فصلنامه مطالعات آسیای مرکزی و قفقاز، دوره بیستوپنجم، شماره 104، صص 93-118.
- AFP (12 Jun 2018), “Norway Wants to Double US Marines and Deploy Them
Closer to Russia”, Agence France Presse, Available at:
https://www.military.com/daily-news/2018/06/12/norway-wants-double-us-troops-and-deploy-them-closer-russia.html, Accessed on: 19/12/2018.
- Baker, J. K. (2016), “Department of Defense Arctic Strategy: Building Resiliency on Thin Ice”, U.S. Army War College, 1 April, Available at:
https://publications.armywarcollege.edu/pubs/731.pdf, Accessed on: 26/12/2018.
- Blunden, M. (2012), “Geopolitics and the Northern Sea Route”, International
Affairs 88(1): 15-129.
- Coffey, L. and Kochis, D. (2016), “NATO Summit 2016: Time for an Arctic Strategy”, Issue Brief (The Heritage Foundation), No. 4578, 16 June, April, Available at: http://thf-reports.s3.amazonaws.com/2016/IB4578.pdf, Accessed on: 19/12/2018.
- Conley, H. A. and Rohloff, C. (2015), The New Ice Curtain: Russia's Strategic Reach to the Arctic, London: CSIS.
- Fahey, S. (2018), “Access Control: Freedom of the Seas in the Arctic and the Russian Northern Sea Route Regime”, Harvard National Security Journal 9(3): 154-200.
- Flake, L. E. (2014), “Russia’s Security Intentions in a Melting Arctic”,
Military and Strategic Affairs 6(1): 99-116.
- Forsyth, M. J. (2018), “Why Alaska and the Arctic Are Critical to the National Security of the United States”, Military Review 98(1): 113-119.
- Grant, S. D. (2010), Polar Imperative: A History of Arctic Sovereignty in North America, Vancouver: Douglas & McIntyre.
- GRF (2013), “The Strategy for the Development of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation and National Security Efforts for the Period up to 2020”, Government of the Russian Federation, Available at: http://www.research.kobe-u.ac.jp/gsics-pcrc/sympo/20160728/documents/Keynote/Russian%20Arctic%20strategy%202013.pdf, Accessed on: 21/11/2018.
- Heininen, L. (2018), “Arctic Geopolitics from Classical to Critical Approach –Importance of Immaterial Factors”, Geography, Environment, Sustainability 11(1): 171-186.
- Hّnneland, G. (2014), Arctic Politics, the Law of the Sea and Russian Identity: The Barents Sea Delimitation Agreement in Russian Public Debate, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.
- Hّnneland, G. (2016), Russia and the Arctic: Environment, Identity and Foreign Policy, London: I.B.Tauris.
- Keil, K. (2014), "The Arctic: A new region of conflict? The case of oil and gas", Cooperation and Conflict 49(2): 162-190.
- Keil, K. (2014), “The Arctic: A New Region of Conflict? The Case of Oil and Gas,” Cooperation andConflict 49(2): 162-190.
- Khrushcheva, O. and Poberezhskaya, M. (2016), "The Arctic in the political discourse of Russian leaders: the national pride and economic ambitions", East European Politics 32(4): 547-566.
- Kubiak, K. (2019), “Towards a More Stable NATO-Russia Relationship”, European Leadership Network, February, Available at:
https://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/31012019-Towards-a-more-stable-Russia-NATO-relationship.pdf, Accessed on: 11/3/2019.
- Kuersten, A. (2016), “The Arctic Five versus the Arctic Council”, in: L. Heininen, H. Exner-Pirot and J. Plouffe (eds.), The Arctic Yearbook: 20 Years of Regional Cooperation and Policy-Shaping (pp. 389-395), Akureyri: University of the Arctic.
- LaGrone, S. (2017), “Cold War Allies U.K., U.S. and Norway Team Up for a New Generation of Russian Sub Hunts”, U.S. Naval Institute, 30 June, Available at: https://news.usni.org/2017/06/30/cold-war-allies-u-k-u-s-norway-team-new-generation-russian-sub-hunts, (Accessed on: 8/12/2018).
- Lamy, S. L. (2017), “The U.S. Arctic Policy Agenda: The State Trumps Other Interests”, in: L. Heininen (ed.), Future Security of the Global Arctic: State Policy, Economic Security and Climate (pp.77-98), London: Palgrave Macmillan.
- Laruelle, M. (2009), “Russia’s Arctic Ambitions: Transforming the ‘Cost of Cold’”, Policy Brief (The Institute for Security & Development Policy) 9(7): 1-3.
- McCannon, J. (1998), Red Arctic: Polar Exploration and the Myth of the North in the Soviet Union, 1932-1939, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
- Mearsheimer, J. J. (2013), “Structural Realism”, in: T. Dunne, M. Kurki and S. Smith (eds.), International Relations Theories: Discipline and Diversity (pp. 71-88), Oxford: Oxford University Press.
- Mearsheimer, J. J. (2014), The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, New York: W.W. Norton & Company.
- Mikkola, H. (2019), “The Geostrategic Arctic : Hard Security in the High North”, Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA), No. 259, Available at: https://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/31012019-Towards-a-more-stable-Russia-NATO-relationship.pdf, (Accessed on: 28/4/2019).
- Moe, A. and Stokke, O. S. (2019), “Asian Countries and Arctic Shipping: Policies, Interests and Footprints on Governance”, Arctic Review on Law and Politics 10(2): 24–52.
- Nilsen, T. (2017), “Take a Look Inside Russia’s Northernmost Arctic Military Base”, The Barents Observer, 18 April, Available at:
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2017/04/take-look-inside-russias-northernmost-arctic-military-base, Accessed on: 12/12/2018.
- Oye, K. A. (2015), “The mitigation of Anarchy: The conditions for cooperation in world politics”, in: Jervis, R. (ed.), International politics: enduring concepts and contemporary issues (pp. 67-79), New Jersey: Pearson Higher.
- Paraskova, T. (2018), “Russia's Oil Revenue Is About to Soar”, Business Insider, 14 May, Available at: https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-oil-revenue-about-to-soar-2018-5, (Accessed on: 21/11/2018).
- Pezard, S. (2018), “The New Geopolitics of the Arctic; Russia’s and China’s Evolving Role in the Region”, RAND, 26 November, Available at: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/testimonies/CT500/CT500/RAND_CT500.pdf, Accessed on: 12/12/2018.
- Pezard, S., Tingstad, A., Abel, L. V. and Stephenson, S. (2017), Maintaining Arctic Cooperation with Russia; Planning for Regional Change inthe Far North, Santa Monica: RAND.
- Pritchin, S. (2018), “Russia’s Untapped Arctic Potential”, Chatham House, 29 January, Available at: https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/russia-s-untapped-arctic-potential, Accessed on: 21/11/2018.
- Rotnem, T. E. (2018), “Putin’s Arctic Strategy; Collaboration or Conflict after Ukraine?”, Problems of Post-Communism 65(1): 1-17.
- Spohr, A. P., Hring, J. S., Cerioli, L. G., Lersch, B. and Soares, J. G. A. (2013), “The Militarization of the Arctic: Political, Economic and Climate Challenges”, UFRGS Model United Nations Journal 1(3): 11-70.
- Trenin, D. (2016), “The Revival of the Russian Military; How Moscow Reloaded”, Foreign Affairs 95(3): 23–29.
- USDD (8 November 2018), “U.S. Joins 30 Other Nations for Largest NATO Exercise Since Cold War”, U.S Defense Department, Available at: https://publications.armywarcollege.edu/pubs/731.pdf, Accessed on:
22/12/2018.
- Vinogradov, S. and Azubuike, S. I. (2018), “Arctic Hydrocarbon Exploration and Production: Evaluating the Legal Regime for Offshore Accidential Pollution Liability”, in: L. Heininen and H. Exner-Pirot (eds.), Arctic Yearbook (pp. 307-327), Akureyri: University of the Arctic.
- Waltz, K. N. (1979), Theory of International Politics, New York: Random House.
- Wehrmann, D. (2018), Critical Geopolitics of the Polar Regions: An Inter-American Perspective, New York: Routledge.
- Wezeman, S. T. (2016), “Military Capabilities in the Arctic: A New Cold War in the High North?”, SIPRI Background Paper, October, Available at: https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/Military-capabilities-in-the-Arctic.pdf, Accessed on: 17/12/2018.
- Голдин, В. И., Соколова, Ф. Х. и Паникар, М. М. (2017), Дискуссия Учебно-Методические Материалы; Международные Отношения ен Арктик, Москва: Российский совет по международным делам (РСМД).
- Казакбаева, Г. М. (2016), “Формирование Российской Национальной Идентичности и "Особый Путь" России”, Вестник Вэгу 1(81): 66-75.
- Стрельцова, Д. В. (2018), Армии на Современном Востоке, Москва: Аспект Пресс.
)