‍Central Asia and The Caucasus Journal

Abstract The South Caucasus region, as part of Iran's civilizational sphere, is of geostrategic importance to the Islamic Republic of Iran beyond the equations related to state-nation relations and geographical borders. Among the countries of the South Caucasus, the Republic of Azerbaijan is of particular importance to Iran in terms of its size, population, natural resources, extensive border with Iran, Shiite religion, Azeri ethnicity, and cultural and civilizational issues. Despite the great potential for convergence and cooperation between the two countries, the instability of bilateral relations has been the main characteristic of the relations between the two countries throughout the history of more than 30 years of relations. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan are two neighboring countries with high cultural similarities that have been in an unstable atmosphere of bilateral relations due to numerous factors. The two countries have many aspects of interaction in bilateral relations in such a way that the scope of issues involved in bilateral relations is very large and diverse and covers a range of political, cultural, economic, military, environmental, and social issues. Therefore, managing bilateral relations in such conditions is very difficult. In this study, an attempt has been made to examine the effective roots in the convergence and divergence of the two countries by applying the theory of layered analysis of causes and to present suggestions for improving bilateral relations. The approach of this research is descriptive-analytical, its method is qualitative and the method of collecting information is library.

Abstract توافق آتش‌بس نوامبر ۲۰۲۰ میان جمهوری آذربایجان و ارمنستان در خصوص منطقه قره‌باغ، نقطه عطفی در ساختار ژئوپلیتیک قفقاز جنوبی محسوب می‌شود که مرزهای سیاسی و موازنه‌های امنیتی منطقه را بازتعریف کرده است. این توافق نه‌تنها قدرت بازیگران محلی را تغییر داد، بلکه نفوذ بازیگران فرامنطقه‌ای را نیز گسترش داد و چالش‌ها و فرصت‌های جدیدی را برای کشورهای همجوار، به‌ویژه جمهوری اسلامی ایران، ایجاد نمود. از منظر راهبردی ایران، پیامدهای این تحولات دوگانه است: از یک سو، بازگشایی مسیرهای ترانزیتی و امکان توسعه زیرساخت‌های انرژی و حمل‌ونقل، فرصت‌های اقتصادی قابل‌توجهی را فراهم ساخته و نقش ایران را به‌عنوان یک بازیگر کلیدی منطقه‌ای تقویت می‌کند؛ از سوی دیگر، تغییر موازنه‌های امنیتی و افزایش حضور نظامی و سیاسی بازیگران خارجی، تهدیدهای بالقوه‌ای برای ثبات مرزهای شمال غربی و امنیت ملی ایران ایجاد می‌کند. این پژوهش با بهره‌گیری از روش تحلیل کیفی، تحولات ژئوپلیتیک پس از توافق ۲۰۲۰ و پیامدهای آن بر منافع اقتصادی و امنیتی ایران را بررسی و ارزیابی می‌کند. یافته‌ها تأکید می‌کنند که اتخاذ سیاست‌های هوشمندانه، متوازن و چندجانبه در تعامل با بازیگران منطقه‌ای، برای حفظ و ارتقای منافع ملی ایران حیاتی است.

Abstract The South Caucasus has always been of interest to major powers, and after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, it became a stage for regional and extra-regional power competition. Iran and Russia are among the countries that have focused on the South Caucasus and have sought to expand their influence in this region. This region holds significant strategic importance for both Iran and Russia. One of the important crises in the South Caucasus is the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which has had various stages throughout history. The First Nagorno-Karabakh War continued from 1991 to 1994. The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War began on September 27, 2020, and lasted for 44 days. According to the authors, the concept of a "shatter belt" can provide a useful framework for analyzing Iran and Russia's approach to the first and second Nagorno-Karabakh war. In this study, the South Caucasus is considered a shatter belt. In response to the question of "what approach Iran and Russia had towards the first and second Nagorno-Karabakh wars and what factors influenced their approach," the authors propose the hypothesis that "factors such as interest in preserving regional independence and security, mediating in regional conflicts, competing with regional and global powers, internal factors of each country, and the need to realize national interests have influenced Iran and Russia's approach to the first and second Nagorno-Karabakh wars." A descriptive-analytical method has been used to answer this question.