‍Central Asia and The Caucasus Journal

Abstract In today's world, economic sanctions are one of the main foreign policy tools of Western countries to exert pressure on target countries in order to change their political and economic behavior. In addition to having direct effects on the economy and domestic politics of the countries under sanctions, these sanctions cause changes in international relations and strengthen regional cooperation. The main question of this article is to what extent have Western sanctions played a role in strengthening the position of BRICS and the Eurasian Economic Union between 2012 and 2024? The main hypothesis of the article is that these sanctions have led to changes in the trade and economic patterns of these organizations and have accelerated economic processes independent of the West. In this study, using a comparative analysis method based on documentary sources and historical data, the development and strengthening process of these organizations in the face of Western sanctions has been examined. The results show that Western sanctions, especially after political and economic crises in the member states of these organizations, have acted as a factor in increasing economic, trade, and political cooperation among BRICS and Eurasian Economic Union members. Ultimately, this study concludes that Western sanctions can play a positive role in strengthening non-Western organizations, but there are several challenges in the field of internal integration and resource management that require further attention.

Abstract The literature of international relations suggests that domestic political and social interactions play a significant role in shaping the foreign policies of states. Within this framework, the present study aims to design and explain a model of political and social interactions between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan and to explore how these interactions influence Iran’s foreign policy. The main research question is: how do Iran’s internal dynamics impact its foreign policy towards Azerbaijan? To answer this question, a sequential exploratory mixed-methods approach was adopted. In the qualitative phase, grounded theory and in-depth interviews were used to identify the main components of the interaction model. Subsequently, a quantitative phase using structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) tested the relationships among variables. The findings indicate that elements such as national interests, social participation, diplomatic inefficiencies, media control, and balance-oriented strategies play a vital role in shaping Iran’s foreign policy. The quantitative results confirmed the validity and reliability of the model and emphasized the importance of internal factors in foreign policy formulation.

Abstract The Islamic Republic of Iran and India differ significantly in their foreign policy orientations. While India, despite certain ups and downs, has largely aligned itself with the Western-led global order, Iran has consistently maintained a confrontational stance toward it. Despite these profound differences, the two countries have converged on certain geoeconomic issues—particularly in the South Caucasus and the development of the North-South Corridor—based on their respective national interests. This study seeks to answer the central question: What factors have contributed to the emergence of joint strategic approaches between Iran and India in the South Caucasus, and specifically regarding the development of the North-South Corridor? The hypothesis suggests that Iran’s unique geopolitical and geoeconomic characteristics—and their value to India—alongside the significant mutual benefits derived from this project, have facilitated bilateral cooperation in this shared endeavor. The findings indicate that although the project has achieved relative progress due to its shared advantages, the sustained pursuit of joint strategies in this domain remains contingent upon broader variables at the international system level as well as regional dynamics. Methodologically, this research adopts an analytical-explanatory approach and is grounded in the theory of geoeconomics, relying on library-based sources, including academic articles, and specialized news platforms.

Abstract Problem Statement: The political and social interactions of the Islamic Republic of Iran in foreign policy encompass processes through which states adopt and implement foreign policy and respond to the foreign policies of other countries. The literature of international relations emphasizes that domestic politics plays a fundamental role in shaping foreign policy. Therefore, this research aims to identify the pattern of political and social interactions of the Islamic Republic of Iran in foreign policy with Azerbaijan.
Methodology: This research adopts a qualitative approach using the grounded theory method. The study's target population includes senior government officials, policymakers, and professors in the field of foreign policy and international relations. Sampling was conducted purposively and snowballing, with data gathered through exploratory interviews.
Findings: Data analysis revealed that the pattern of political and social interactions of the Islamic Republic of Iran in foreign policy with Azerbaijan consists of five main components: causal conditions (national interests, realism, domestic policies, countering sanctions, etc.), contextual conditions (support, service to elites, participation, trust-building, etc.), intervening factors (weak diplomacy, economic problems, executive inefficiencies), strategies (balancing, de-escalation, controlling public opinion and media, strengthening hard power), and outcomes (economic development, strengthening economic alliances, etc.).
Results: The findings of this research highlight the importance of identifying the various dimensions of the political and social interactions of the Islamic Republic of Iran in foreign policy with neighboring countries, particularly the Republic of Azerbaijan. These results can assist policymakers in the field of international relations in improving and enhancing political and social interactions.

Abstract Energy diplomacy constitutes a critical strategy for industrialized consumer nations, emerging energy producers, and transit states alike. Amidst recurring geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West—notably underscored by conflicts related to Ukraine since 2006—Türkiye’s strategic importance as a potential energy corridor to Europe has been significantly heightened. This study analyzes the energy diplomacy strategy of Türkiye under the Justice and Development Party (AKP). It assesses how Ankara has sought to capitalize on this strategic position, considering factors such as its growing domestic energy demand and its unique location astride East-West transit routes. The findings demonstrate that Türkiye’s targeted diplomatic initiatives have enhanced its negotiating leverage within global energy markets and asserted its role as a key regional energy actor, particularly concerning European energy security.

Abstract Afghanistan has an important position for the countries of the region, including China, in terms of having rich natural resources and having an important transit position as a link between regions such as Central Asia, South Asia, and West Asia. With the Taliban once again dominating Afghanistan, China's relations with this group have entered a new stage, and Afghanistan is still the focus of China's foreign policy. In this regard, this research aims to examine the trends governing China's political economy and its impact on the country's foreign policy towards the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. Therefore, this research tries to use the qualitative method and sample research method to address the basic question of how China's political economy has directed the country's foreign policy towards the Taliban. In response to this hypothesis, China's political economy, with its neo-mercantilist approach and centralized capitalism, has directed the foreign policy of this country to serve the economic interests and access to Afghanistan's natural resources in interaction with the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The findings of the research show that the upward trend of China's industrial growth requires natural resources for the consumption of domestic industries. In addition, natural reserves are considered essential for the continuation of China's economic growth. Therefore, the necessity of controlling foreign natural resources and transit situations has been inevitable for China's economic development. In the meantime, Afghanistan, with its natural reserves and convenient transit location, can play a strategic role in China's economic interests.

Abstract As one of the important global actors, Russia has experienced offensive and defensive roles in its lifetime due to the developments in the regional environment such as the Arctic and its power. The importance of the North Pole in this century became apparent when Russia sent a submarine to a depth of 4261 meters in the Arctic Ocean on August 2, 2007, and installed the country's flag on the bottom of this ocean. Russia, in addition to having the best border with the Pole the largest amount of resources estimated in this region, and the largest ice fleet in the world due to the unique geographical location of the North Pole compared to it, in terms of aristocracy in different regions of this country for Any possible military attack has a strategic position. The main research question concerns the principles and strategic nature of Russia's policies in the Arctic region. In response to this question in a descriptive-analytical way and according to the principle of explaining strategies based on interests in the framework of power, Russia's strategies in this region are based on the conditions and the origin and source of the threat. and include a set of strategies, including strategies derived from domestic policy for the exploitation of economic and environmental benefits, foreign policy including the strategy of tension and strong reaction in the face of threats caused by the hegemon (NATO expansion) and its allies. It is a coalition strategy with extra-regional actors (China). As one of the important global actors, Russia has experienced offensive and defensive roles in its lifetime due to the developments in the regional environment such as the Arctic and its power. The importance of the North Pole in this century became apparent when Russia sent a submarine to a depth of 4261 meters in the Arctic Ocean on August 2, 2007, and installed the country's flag on the bottom of this ocean. Russia, in addition to having the best border with the Pole the largest amount of resources estimated in this region, and the largest ice fleet in the world due to the unique geographical location of the North Pole compared to it, in terms of aristocracy in different regions of this country for Any possible military attack has a strategic position. The main research question concerns the principles and strategic nature of Russia's policies in the Arctic region. In response to this question in a descriptive-analytical way and according to the principle of explaining strategies based on interests in the framework of power, Russia's strategies in this region are based on the conditions and the origin and source of the threat. and include a set of strategies, including strategies derived from domestic policy for the exploitation of economic and environmental benefits, foreign policy including the strategy of tension and strong reaction in the face of threats caused by the hegemon (NATO expansion) and its allies. It is a coalition strategy with extra-regional actors (China).

Abstract Central Asia is considerably important in China’s foreign policy because of its geographical proximity. Ensuring regional security, combating terrorism, and procuring part of energy needs would not be possible without cooperating with Central Asian countries.  By incrementing trade, investing in infrastructure projects, and providing development assistance, China pursues its foreign policy objectives in the region and encourages its neighbors to keep their distance from the United States and other Western countries.  Chinese aid to Central Asia has succeeded those of other donor countries; however, the context and purposes have been rather different. China considers itself a developing country and claims to know the developmental needs and requirements of such countries, avoiding in this way interfering in their internal affairs with the pretext of offering them aid. This research aims to respond to the question “What objectives does China pursue by offering development assistance to developing countries and what would be the implications it might have in Central Asian countries?” The response unveils the changes that China, by appealing to their aid, may have attempted to induce in Central Asia from 2000 to 2020. The findings of the investigation indicate that The PRC, striving to lock the core processes of production within its borders, has merely focused on devoting status-quo aids to the developing countries in the two sectors of infrastructure and energy, contrary to other donors’ aid-seeking to essentially alter the recipient's status-quo institutions. In theory, China, strategically complying with the two principles of respect for the recipient's sovereignty and mutual economic benefits, is not interested in disturbing the status quo. But in practice, the approach is rather different.

Abstract The Russian Federation in the post-Soviet era has faced with many security threats. This article has studied the approaches of the Russian Federation under Vladimir Putin seeks to answer the fundamental question, " Why has Russia put realistic pragmatism and foreign policy codes on its foreign policy agenda under Putin?" The paper's hypothesis is that "the geopolitical threats and consequently the fragility of the Russian Federation's national security in the post-Cold War space have been the most important driver of pragmatism in its foreign policy". security threats at both domestic and foreign levels seem to undermine Russian security at three levels: domestic, regional and systemic. This has prompted Putin whit comprehensive approach to concept of security, to turn to Realistic pragmatism foreign policy to counter these threats. Research findings show that behavioral codes such as selective engagement, Emphasis on the formation of a multipolar system in the international system and the strengthening of regionalization, the strategy of reviving its power as a global power, economization of foreign policy, Russian-oriented institutionalism in Eurasia, The policy of looking to the East and cooperating with independent governments from the West and counter-terrorism which all have been designed and implemented to safeguard Russia's interests and security and reduce the potential impact of these threats on Russian national security. In this paper, the research method is in the form of formative and analytical explanations and attempts to find the root of the relationship between the dependent and independent variables of the article.

Abstract Strategic culture is one of the new concepts in international relations literature which has been used by Jack Snyder for the first time. Scientific studies regarding the effects of strategic culture on Islamic Republic of Iran’s behavior have been mainly conducted during the two recent decades and specifically after the rise of crises regarding the nuclear power case and ballistic missile program. The main question of the present paper states: how the strategic culture has been shaping the Islamic Republic of Iran’s foreign policy regarding Afghanistan from 1358 to 1398? Our provisional answer to this question is that strategic culture, through shaping strategic and consistent behaviors, has led the Islamic Republic of Iran to adopt a consistent and ultra-discourse policy towards Afghanistan from 1358 to 1398, unlike the political and discourse-related developments within the country. The present paper is descriptive-analytical and the researcher gathered the necessary data through library resources, social media and interview with Iran’s foreign policy authorities who have been responsible for Afghanistan issues.

Abstract Using diplomacy has been always of great significance for great and regional powers in order to affect other countries. Meanwhile, public diplomacy is considered as one of the most practical types of diplomacy due to its dynamic and transforming nature. In the last decade, the Republic of Turkey has entered into the sphere and tried, on the basis of his capabilities, to promote its influence in peripheral areas. The main purpose of the present paper is to address this question: “what are the means and basis of Turkey’s public diplomacy in the peripheral areas?” The hypothesis of the research states that Turkey, especially from 2010 inwards, has used a variety of its public diplomacy tools with regards to short, medium, and long term priorities. This country has exploited its media and cyber capacities for short-term, its public relations, companies, NGOs and diaspora for medium-term, and its cultural and branding diplomacy for long-term priorities. .

Abstract Culture and cultural elements are important variables of international relations and contemporary scholars have emphasized the role of cultural issues in politics. Cultural diplomacy is an outstanding example of the soft power to pave the way for influence in others through culture, values, and ideas. The Islamic Republic of Iran’s relations with the Russian Federation have seen considerable expansion in many areas in recent years. Although the scale of relations is more evident in some areas as politics, security, and even economy, the growing trend in the cultural, social and human areas can also be seen. In present article, while reviewing Iran’s cultural activities in Russia, Iranian cultural diplomacy approach is studied. The authors will try to answer the question which elements of soft power are more applied in Iran’s cultural relation with Russia. In doing so, by looking into the major activities carried out by the Iranian cultural counselors and other cultural foundations in Russia, their roles in expanding cultural relations of two countries are assessed. The research method of this paper is qualitative analysis of content within the theoretical framework of the theory of soft power and cultural diplomacy.

Abstract Public diplomacy has always been an important tool in the foreign policy of the Russian Federation, before and after the collapse of the Soviet Union. From the beginning of its establishment in the 1920s, and with the aim of interacting and influencing the peoples of other countries, the Socialist Soviet Union pursued public diplomacy in parallel with official diplomacy. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation sought to reform and create new structures to revive its public diplomacy. Considering the fact that New Russia's strategies in public diplomacy and digital diplomacy are more broader and diverse than the Soviet era’s, the authors examine the question of what are the prominent features of the Soviet Union and the new Russia’s public diplomacy. The present article hypothesizes that Soviet public diplomacy was largely world-centered and ideological, while the approach of modern Russia has been more cultural and Russian-oriented. From the 1917 to 1990, the Soviet Union was a major player in the application of public diplomacy in the world arena, especially in the nations under its political axis. But after its collapse, Russia's main focus has been on its cultural-historical geography to advance public diplomacy and digital diplomacy. This article tries to analyze the question of the article in the framework of theoretical discourse of public diplomacy by using descriptive-analytical method.

Abstract       Continuous monitoring of the daily lives of citizens is one of the fundamental propositions of bio-theory. On a broader scale, continued security controls and strict oversight over neighboring countries are also enforced by countries that have some form of historical-civilization conflict with their neighbors. Russia, as one of the historical and political axes of Central Asia, has adopted different foreign policies than what is called the near abroad. However, the fundamental element that is most prominent in Russian foreign policy in its peripheral environment seems to be its overarching security approach and its imposition of regional hegemony. In this regard, the present study has investigated the foreign policy of Russia in the South Caucasus by using descriptive-analytical method and by using the theories of bio-political theory. The results show that Russian foreign policy lacks hegemonic burdens despite multiple layers of persistent flexibility. This lack is due to divergent histories, cultures and ideologies that exist in the region, and Russia has always tried to suppress them by maintaining its superior military doctrine. Russia's military doctrine, however, has been able to maintain its hardware hegemony over the South Caucasus, and the three countries Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia inevitably pursue a policy of alignment and alignment with Russia because of structural deficiencies.

Abstract The “soft power” as an important concept was firstly entered to the political discourse of Vladimir Putin in February 2012; This concept, which is now of great concern for Kremlin, is derived from diverse and somehow contradictory resources with mostly governmental and formal natures. While focusing on Russia’s soft power towards its near abroad, using Nye’s conceptual framework, the present literature tries to study Kremlin’s goals of developing soft power and its soft power resources and instruments towards near abroad. Through studying Russia’s soft power resources in culture, economics and politics, the authors conclude that Russia’s political values are traceable in all the three mentioned areas. In fact, the purpose of this paper is to answer the following questions: what are the resources and instruments for Russia’s soft power that have empowered Russia regionally? And what are the constraints for Russian soft power in the region? The proposed hypothesis is that Russia's soft power in near abroad encompasses Russian language, culture, media, Orthodox Church, Russian compatriots as well as trade diplomacy. But instrumental look at soft power resources in this strategic region, as well as ineffectiveness, have weakened Russia's desirable convergence in near abroad. Using descriptive-analytical method, and based library and internet resources, the authors try to find an answer for the research question.

Abstract Formation of OPEC and exploiting petroleum as pressure tool by Arabian countries for countering with Zionist Regime during early 70^th century was a prominent example of petroleum’s political significance. In order to prevent the reduction of petroleum exportation during Cold War era, the USSR tried to reduce the importance of its political dimension. Following the collapse of USSR and surmount of liberalism and occidentalization during Yeltsin era, the petroleum maintained its unpolitical nature. Still since the beginning of Putin’s presidency, especially after the ignite of the new cold war following Iraq’s occupation in 2003, Russian Federation was gradually inclined to convert petroleum from an economic instrument to a political and even security one.  The Energy Strategy of Russia for the period up to 2020 articulates that energy resources are the main instruments for driving Russia’s exterior and interior politics. Against this backdrop, the present article is trying to find out the main reason for Russia to exploit energy resources as a political instrument. Using the theoretical framework of bureaucratic decision making, the authors argue that interior bureaucratic considerations including balance of power, as well as internal conflicts in Putin’s government, are the main reasons for the mentioned question. The internal power relationship especially the core role of petroleum companies in Russia’s governmental decision making has led to the weaponization of energy.

Abstract   Strategic culture is the consequence of historical experiences. Since these experiences are different in each country, therefore different states have different strategic cultures. The other fact is that there is a deep relationship among strategic culture, strategic behavior and geopolitical codes. Ukraine also has its certain strategic culture against its historical experiences, political strategy and geography. In order to explain and understand strategic decisions and geopolitical codes in Ukraine, adequate attention should be paid to structural circumstances and causes of international politics, as well as rules, intentions and goals and their background. The main question of the present article is about the impact of strategic culture on geopolitical codes of Ukraine’s foreign policy? Ukraine’s strategic culture includes vulnerable social structure, ethnic – linguistic gap, as well as geopolitical and geostrategic features such as Atlanticism accompanied by an attempt to get free from Russian dominance, being the subject of rivalry between Russia and European Union, geo-economic dependence. These features have a deep impact on Ukraine’s strategic decision making and behavioral model in foreign policy arena and international environment, preventing the provision of geopolitical codes that lead to its foreign policy interests. Bearing in mind that strategic culture paves the ground for understanding geopolitical codes for each actor, the necessity of understanding Ukraine’s strategic culture, also becomes understandable. The authors use analytical – explanatory method to find the answer for the literature’s question. 

Abstract After the cold war and collapse of the Soviet Union, the international order faced drastic changes and the United States managed to establish its desired unipolar structure and hegemonic order due to its superiority in ideological, economic, political and military arenas. Notwithstanding, China’s economic growth and Russia’s reviving influence in regional and international evolutions, have lead to a change in international order and development of a unipolar-multipolar system that may increase either integration or conflicts between the actors. The following research question guides this study: What are the most influential factors for integration and conflict between Russia and China in post cold war era? The article’s hypotheses is that A) The following factors would lead to an integration between Russia and China: economic, political and security cooperation in the framework of BRICS and SCO, a cyber war with the United States, the worry of US and NATO’s presence in their borders’ periphery, common interests in Central Asia, common threats in regional crises (such as Syria and North Korea), and the worry of the   extremism expansion into their territories. B) Issues such as lack of confidence in mutual relations, increase of Chinese population in Russia, competition for energy resources in Central Asia, inability in building a defensive alliance between the two countries, would lead to a conflict between Russia and China. Using explanatory – analyzing research method, the authors try to tell why the research findings provide an answer to the research question.

Abstract          Since 2001 Ashgabat lunched more normal pattern of neutrality. In 2006, with the arrival of Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow as new leader, The process of change in foreign policy intensified. In view of the aforementioned considerations, this paper seeks to answer the two main questions: what kind of changes Turkmenistan's neutrality strategy have experienced? And what have been the economic consequences of this strategy? The hypothesis here is that the Turkmenistan’s foreign policy until 2006 was based on Isolation. After 2001 negative neutrality has been adopted. Then, with the arrival of Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow, active and positive neutrality has been adopted. This strategy explain as one of the main factors of economic growth in Turkmenistan in the last ten years (2016-2006).

Abstract The hypothesis of this paper is that due to impotency of understanding the changing concept of ‘Geopolitics’ in Russian foreign policy and its shifting strategic choice, the doctrine of political realism and economic pragmatism are not capable of analyzing the Russian voting behavior in the SC, rather, the admixture of classic approaches with the doctrine of critical geopolitics will more clarify the Kremlin’s voting behaviors in the SC. Indeed, realistic and utilitarian approaches on one hand and the concept of politics as societal, cultural and discursive action on the other hand will answer the question. 

Abstract Strategic decision-making in foreign policy arena needs a strict cognition of external realities, self-potentialities, scrutinizing possible options, and an exact calculation of the costs and the achievements of each action. Therefore, cognition and analysis of the environment is a necessity for foreign policy and is in the center of executive attention. This necessity is rooted in the activeness of the environment and ignoring it would lead to some irreparable damages that would endanger national security and interests. Having a clear perspective towards future events/developments is another advantage of environment analysis, which helps avoid facing unpredictable events. Central Asia region in the neighboring of Iran is a priority area for its foreign policy. Iran and the region of Central Asia are interconnected to the extent that developments in each impact the other. Therefore a systematic and scientific study on the evolutions of Central Asia is essential for the foreign policy of Iran. Using scientific methods of environment analysis in the field of strategic management, the authors attempt to find an appropriate model for environment analysis in Central Asia.  

Abstract Taking power by the Democrats led by Barrack Obama, amounted to a wide range of changes in the field of American foreign policy which in many dimensions varies from the era of the neo-conservatisms. Among the most vivid distinctions could be the change in the approach of the American foreign policy towards the South Caucasus region. The main questions in here would be the direction of these changes and the reasons behind and the consequences of the changes in the South Caucasus region. The outcome of the article indicates that under Obama administration, the region disembarked from Washington's strategic priorities. US foreign policy’s change of attitude, reset of relations with Russia, and the US refrain from creating tensions in the Russian peripheral sub-systems, focus of American defense and foreign policy on the Middle East, and austerity measures due to the domestic financial crisis, could be the most important reasons behind the Obama administration’s approach towards South Caucasus. Besides, some  facts like considerable cuts in the financial aids provided by the US government for three countries of the region, reduction of the US support level extended to the Georgian government, relative strain in              Baku-Washington relations due to severe pressure by the American side on Turkey-Armenia normalization of  ties and Obama’s non compliance with his promises given during his presidential election campaign to the effect that he would recognize genocide of the Armenians in 1915, should be known as the most important consequences of adopting such approach. Seemingly, in the event of fundamental changes like recurring a US-Russian confrontation under Vladimir Putin's new administration, taking power by the Republicans in the upcoming US presidential election, and relative improvement in its economic conditions, one could witness a different approach by Washington toward South Caucasus and its re-gaining importance in the US foreign policy strategies.

Abstract Since 2007, the issue of soft power entered into literature of Russian foreign policy. This concept that now is being specially pursued by the Kremlin, originated from various sources and sometimes conflicting. Contrary to what Joseph Nye - soft power's theorist - presented the main sources of such a power are governmental and not civil; This article fries to find out the essence soft power in Russia and how this country has been able to apply the soft power policy in its foreign policy. Main question this article is: what is the nature of Russia's soft power and how much is success rate of this country when using this tool? This paper reviews transformations of soft power In Russia's foreign policy in two sections: first, it investigates the soft power connection with major events of commensurate with the Russia's position in international politics. Then most important elements, including the Russian language, culture and values of this country, along with other international phenomena such as virtual network connections and benefit from the wide field of higher education, will be analyzed. The article claims that despite efforts to employ soft power in Russia in recent years, its success has been limited.

Abstract The collapse of Soviet Union provided a rather different situation for the union member states including the Russian Federation. Grappled with numerous challenges at its early stages, ambiguity and confusiondominated Russian foreign policy in all levels of bilateral, regional and ultra regional relations. The articlefocuses on the second level-the Russian regional relations- and attempts to identify the determinant factors for changes and developments. The article concludes that the changes which took place in Russian relations with various regions of the world were preoccupied by changes in foreign policy theory. In other words, the internal factors  have had the most significant impact on the evolution of the Russian regional relations.