‍Central Asia and The Caucasus Journal

Abstract طی سه دهه سپری‌شده از فروپاشی شوروی، امنیت و توسعه از اهداف یکایک کشورهای آسیای مرکزی بوده که تحقق آنها همواره تحت‌الشعاع شماری از محدودیت‌ها و تهدیدها بوده است. منشأ برخی از این تهدیدها افغانستان بوده، که عبارتند از تروریسم، افراطی‌گری مذهبی، و عرضه و قاچاق مواد مخدر. یکسان نبودن میزان این تهدیدها برای کشورهای منطقه منجر به تفاوت دیدگاه‌های این کشورها در قبال مسائل افغانستان شده است. سیاست خارجی ازبکستان در قبال افغانستان شامل دو مرحله می‌شود؛ مرحله اول (1991-2016)، مرحله حفظ فاصله و رویکرد محتاطانه نسبت به افغانستان و مرحله دوم (2016 - تاکنون)، که مرحله توسعه روابط سیاسی و اقتصادی است. این پژوهش به‌دنبال پاسخ به این پرسش است که سیاست خارجی ازبکستان در قبال افغانستان در دوره شوکت میرضیایف دنباله‌رو سیاست اسلام کریم‌اف (سیاست درهای بسته) است یا مشی دیگری دارد؟ در پاسخ، این فرضیه مطرح می‌شود که سیاست خارجی ازبکستان در دوره میرضیایف در قبال افغانستان سیاست درهای باز است و با وجود سقوط نظام جمهوریت و استقرار طالبان در رأس قدرت، در تکاپو برای افزایش ارتباطات و همکاری‌ها با امارت اسلامی افغانستان است. یافته‌های این پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که خط‌مشی تاشکند در خصوص روابطش با کابل در چارچوب راهبرد سیاست خارجی میرضیایف با روی کار آمدن وی دچار تغییراتی شد و سرنگونی حکومت اشرف غنی و حاکمیت یافتن طالبان نیز دگرگونی‌ قابل توجهی در این سیاست پدید نیاورد. با توجه به رویکرد بررسی مقایسه‌ای و تمرکز بر مرحلۀ توصیفی آن، روش مورد استفاده در این نوشتار کیفی و از نوع مقایسه‌ای است.

Abstract The intensification of recent global trends—including the war in Ukraine, growing US-China competition, and heightened geopolitical rivalry—has fueled speculation about shifts in the international order, with a particular focus on Eurasia. In recent years, Russia and China have made concerted efforts to reshape the security architecture of Eurasia. This study addresses the central question: What are the nature and characteristics of the regional security order that Russia and China envision for the region? The study argues that Russia and China seek to establish a regional security order based on integration. This envisioned order is explicitly anti-hegemonic and founded on principles such as the distribution of power and responsibility, equality, respect for sovereignty, and, critically, the indivisibility of security. This research employs a qualitative, descriptive-analytical methodology, evaluating the hypothesis through the analysis of official documents, policy statements, and scholarly literature.

Abstract Anti-security variables for any government are considered fundamental priorities for its survival. Therefore, the countries' policymakers focus on identifying and eliminating the variables. Afghanistan's social system has certain variables and entanglements that have increased the scope of this complexity with the intensification of the waves of modern civilization and its spread to this environment. This article focuses on understanding the social roots of security in Afghanistan. Therefore, the current research seeks to answer the question, how does the social system of Afghanistan affect the security coefficient of Afghanistan? According to the hypothesis of the research, Afghanistan has an active three-gap society, which leads to tension in Afghanistan. The findings of the study show that this society with three Gaps creates a continuous cycle of tension, causing its consequences to be exported to the surrounding countries. Therefore, the internal security of Afghanistan and the security of Afghanistan's neighbors are affected by the changes and developments in Afghanistan's social context. This research is developmental the research method is qualitative, and the type of document analysis and its tool is the Note-taking method.

Abstract Central Asia is considered an influential strategic bull's eyes from Russia's point of view, so the mutability in this adjoining country of the region is aforethought Russia's insecurity. Russia seriously fought to reduce instability in Central Asia to ensure stable security in countries bordering Afghanistan by creating a collective security alliance or coalition entente. From 2001 to 2020, we were on the verge of the collapse of the central government of Afghanistan; Russia initiated various security policies for the region according to Afghanistan's security conditions.  interacting with America for fighting against terrorism; this country was the protagonist for overthrowing the Taliban government in 2001, but then to cooperating with the Taliban for the withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan in 2021; Russia made it as a part of its security strategy. Russia’s strategy explained a realist theoretical framework that derived from Mersheimer's bellicose realistic pragmatism. The main query of this research is: "What was the Strategic impact of Russia in Central Asia on the Security condition of Afghanistan during 2001-2020?"  "Russia's strategy in Central Asia after the overthrowing of Taliban aimed for boosting and strengthening security in Central Asia, as considering as prevailing conditions in Afghanistan." Russia's concern about the smuggling of narcotics and the influx of extremists from Afghanistan to Central Asia persuaded this government to fight against terrorist groups. Russia tried in its strategy to prioritize the security of the borders of Central Asia, which is adjacent to this country. This research explained the descriptive-analytical method and library resources.

Abstract The Russian Federation in the post-Soviet era has faced with many security threats. This article has studied the approaches of the Russian Federation under Vladimir Putin seeks to answer the fundamental question, " Why has Russia put realistic pragmatism and foreign policy codes on its foreign policy agenda under Putin?" The paper's hypothesis is that "the geopolitical threats and consequently the fragility of the Russian Federation's national security in the post-Cold War space have been the most important driver of pragmatism in its foreign policy". security threats at both domestic and foreign levels seem to undermine Russian security at three levels: domestic, regional and systemic. This has prompted Putin whit comprehensive approach to concept of security, to turn to Realistic pragmatism foreign policy to counter these threats. Research findings show that behavioral codes such as selective engagement, Emphasis on the formation of a multipolar system in the international system and the strengthening of regionalization, the strategy of reviving its power as a global power, economization of foreign policy, Russian-oriented institutionalism in Eurasia, The policy of looking to the East and cooperating with independent governments from the West and counter-terrorism which all have been designed and implemented to safeguard Russia's interests and security and reduce the potential impact of these threats on Russian national security. In this paper, the research method is in the form of formative and analytical explanations and attempts to find the root of the relationship between the dependent and independent variables of the article.

Abstract In recent two decades, Turkey has consolidated its presence in Central Asian countries and played an active role in political and cultural spheres in this region. Through cultural and ethnic ties and also reconstructing their economies structurally, Turkey has been able to extend its influence in Central Asian countries. The main question of the research addresses the purposes and implications of Turkey’s presence in Central Asia and for answering the main question, this hypothesis has been tested that Turkey is trying to create the organization of Turkish speaking countries in order to promote its political, security, and cultural influence and avoid lagging behind Iran and Russia. Data gathering method has been document-based, research strategy has been deductive, and research methodology has been based on process detection inspired by economic diplomacy literature within the realist theory. The findings of the research indicate that the main purposes of Turkey for promoting economic diplomacy in Central Asia are as follows: rivalry with Iran and Russia, establishing the council of Turkish-speaking countries, changing its geopolitical position, diversification of its energy resources, military cooperation, security issues, and etc.

Abstract In the new era of international relations, great powers try to realize their foreign policy interests and purposes resorting to the components of smart power. The 2022 Russian war against Ukraine and EU’s challenges in fulfilling the security of its citizens and repelling the threats from neighboring countries have shown that sole focus on soft powers strategies or relying on foreign military power (NATO) has turned European Union into a dependent political entity which is affected by US decisions. Today, European leaders have realized that EU should adopt an optimal and smart combination of soft and hard power against Kremlin especially in Eastern Europe through a unified and coordinated policy. By resorting to new and different realistic interpretation of smart power concept, adopting a descriptive-analytical approach, and using library and electronic resources, the present research has tried to answer this main question that how smart power can secure EU’s interests against Russia; the findings of the research indicate that EU has recently codified new strategic documents regarding developing rapid reaction military forces, energy security, comprehensive sanctions and confronting Russian news agencies in order to take serious measures in reducing its security dependence, endogenous security, maximizing and balancing its power against coming threats and intends to play an active security role in the future of international system.

Abstract a      The link between water, energy and food has become a common concept in environmental change research and policy discussions, which, by identifying the optimal policy combinations and governance arrangements in the water, energy and food sectors, promotes coherence in practiced policies. On the other hand, border disputes over water resources, along with the inequitable distribution of water resources in the Central Asian region, have led to the emergence of serious disputes in the relations between the countries of this region. In fact, geography can be considered the most important factor in creating disputes in the field of water. According to this, The question of the article is how to analyze the hydropolitics of extraterritorial waters in the Central Asian region from the perspective of Nexus approach? The paper hypothesizes that the water-food-energy Nexus Approach, as a holistic approach in the Central Asian region, is a new and effective approach to the depoliticization of the extraterritorial waters issue. This approach, instead of focusing on each sector (water, food or energy) separately and on each country of the region, can holistically address the governance of the interactions between sectors and policies in all countries of the Aral Sea Basin and prevent partiality and the challenges arising from the reductionism attitude in this region. The research method is explanatory-analytical and data and information have been collected in the form of library documents using resources and articles available in cyberspace and scientific reports.

Abstract With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the centralized and highly complex mechanism for water resourced allocation in Central Asia turned into a complex cross-border water management problem and left unresolved bilateral claims. Under such a situation, transboundary rivers caused national and regional instability and created a new source of conflict between coastal governments by abandoning regional integration in Central Asia. In addition to natural and historical reasons, the tie between water and energy issues, climate change, population growth and its disparate distribution in Central Asia has exacerbated the security challenges of the water issues in the region. Accordingly, the main question of the present paper is that "On what principles the management of transboundary rivers in Central Asia has been based since the Republic’s independence and how it has affected the security of this region?" The findings of the research, which are descriptive-analytical using documentary and transactional methodology, show that "the principles ruling management of transboundary rivers in Central Asia during the past quarter century have been based on competition, self-orientation and separate national interests of the Republics in Central Asia which have led to local and national conflicts and can be studied as an indirect or complementary source of security instability in Central Asia.”

Abstract Central Asia’s ecosystem is reliant on region’s rivers and lakes. The conflicts over water resources still remain as a potential threat due to the unstable environment. The present article tries to explain the root causes of water crisis in Central Asia through answering the following question: The water crisis in Central Asia is leading towards divergence or integration? The elements such as USSR water management heritage, lack of access to energy resources, ambiguity in international rules, etc. the water crisis in Central Asia seems to lead to a conflict. Therefore international institutions are to strengthen regional integration for water resources.

Abstract Since the beginning of the third millennium, the European Union's policy toward the Central Asia has been a major part of the EU's common foreign and security policy. Central Asia has traditionally provided a link between Asia and Europe and plays as a strategic route between the two continents. The most comprehensive European document on Central Asia entitled "EU-Central Asia: Strategy for a New Partnership" was adopted in June 2007 and boosted the EU-Central Asia relations. The Main question of this article is "in order to implement its normative power, which instruments are used by the EU and which challenges it confronts?" In response to this question, the following hypothesis is posed: "Promoting democracy, human rights, rule of law, education, and environment are among the most important programs implemented by the EU in Central Asia; however, due to some shortcomings such as the role of other powerful actors in the region, different approaches of the member states and the European institutions as well as structural weaknesses, the EU has failed to achieve all its goals in the region. The research method applied in this article is analytic-descriptive.

Abstract According to Russia's membership in the “UN Security Council”, nuclear power, proximity and involvement in a wide arena of the world’s geography (Japan, China, Central Asia, the Middle East, the Black Sea, East Europe to the Baltic region), as well as the possibility of military support and reinforcement of different groups and governments; the influence of Russia’s remoteness and proximity in various parts of the world, especially in the “South Caucasus”, is still undeniable. A series of security and strategic interests (in relation to Armenia and Georgia), as well as economic interests (mainly relevant to Azerbaijan) have made “South Caucasus” important for Russia; thus, in expanding the relations, “Eurasia region” has been the priority of the country in all foreign policy documents until 2016. The main objective of this article is, to respond to this question: How Russia has turned into a security activist in the “South Caucasus”? The hypothesis, which is raised in response to this main question, is as follows: A series of strategic, security, military, economic and energy resources have turned Russia into a security activist in the South Caucasus. In this article, it is tried to answer to the main question through studying Russia’s foreign policy documents and then different approaches of the country; as well as studying its interests in various fields by a descriptive – explanatory method.

Abstract South Caucasus is one of the regions in the world which faces with numerous challenges considering the security area and after two decades of the collapse of the Soviet Union, it has not reached the political and economic integration yet. In this region, there is a kind of cooperation and rivalry among Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia and also among these countries with external players. These three countries have pursued different and sometimes contradictory paths and participated in different organizations, programs, agreements and coalitions. The EU and Russian Federation are two important actors in the South Caucasus. Framing the European Neighborhood Policy and Eastern Partnership, the EU has sought to play a more highlighted role in the region. The Russia-Georgia war in 2008 and the EU's intervention especially the French government's initiative led to Brussels' pronounced role. Considering the South Caucasus as its near abroad, Russia with formulating mechanisms such as the Eurasian Economic Union tries to counter the influence of NATO and the EU's in the region. In this article, the factors influencing on the EU-Russia's differences in the South Caucasus will be studied. The hypothesis will be as "differences in perception of security, securing energy security, a bid to establish sphere of influence and economic benefits have led to Brussels- Russia's differences and disputes. The research approach used in this article is analytic-descriptive.  

Abstract The end of mission of international forces in Afghanistan and the transfer of supplying security to the Afghan's military forces has merely resulted in failure of United States of America in elimination of terrorism and promotion of permanent Peace. Adopting a new strategy by America has only given rise to tension with the Afghan's government. The intervention of neighboring rival powers aiming to influence, has made Afghanistan for the rivals a place to maintain their interests without take into consideration the former national sovereignty.
Reflection of ethnic and religious diversity of the society in political and military - security institutions had a devastating impacts on the successful performance of the institutions. By growth of drugs trade, economic self-sufficiency of rural areas and empowerment of the insurgencies, the government has been losing control on those areas. Meanwhile, the sophisticated developments resulted from death of Taliban’s leader and the split in the new leadership, has made more difficult achieving a long-lasting peace between government and the two large groups of rebels which been in war with each other.
This article by utilizing descriptive – analytical method attempt to answer to this question that what factors have prevented establishing peace and stability in Afghanistan? The study apply the realism as theoretical framework and use qualitative method for analyzing the data. The writers assume that competitive interference of the foreign states and preferring of their own interests than Afghanistan’s ones and internal social and cultural grounds are the main obstacles in establishing peace in Afghanistan. 

Abstract The collapse of the Soviet Union provided an extraordinary opportunity for China to enforce political and economic process in the Central Asian region. Proximity of the border of China and the Central Asian countries with rapid economic growth of China, have imposed certain conditions on Central Asian countries' relations with it. In general, bilateral relations between China and the countries of this region are not excepted from universal process of economic diplomacy of Beijing. Existence of considerable energy resources in strategic region of Central Asia has caused Beijing to pay more attention to the region. In addition to geopolitical neighborhood and special importance of this region for China, Beijing leaders are developing economic relations with countries in the region as their foreign policy agenda to maintain social and political stability inside the country, particularly in border areas such as Xinjiang. The insecurity in the western borders of Muslim province of Xinjiang, which is on the border of China and Central Asian countries; has forced China to develop relations with the Central Asian republics.    Also, the influence of United States on Central Asia after September 11, 2001 has been a far-fetched incident for the Chinese and overall strategy of China towards its neighbors. The combination of these factors affected Chinese foreign policy and its conduced of objectives and interests in the Central Asian has undergone special considerations and strategies.            The main question of this article is that whether China can upgrade its position as to the first grade in competition with the major powers to become the first power in the Central Asia? Our hypothesis is that, due to the increasing presence of US and Russia in the economy of the region, China probably cannot gain first place in relations with Central Asian states until the next decade.  

Abstract Relations with regional and trans-regional powers such as Russia have always been a major theme in foreign relations of the Central Asian and the Caucasus countries after gaining independence. Thanks to internal problems and security concerns and in order to maximize their interests in different realms of political, economic and security affairs, these countries have always welcomed the strategy of alliances and coalitions.             Of course, the culture of multilateral cooperation among central Asian and Caucasus countries has not yet been institutionalized. Due to some animosities and difficulties among this region’s states, they welcome multilateral institutions. The survival of these countries is being threatened by terrorism, extremism, ethnic and racial conflicts, segregations and inefficiency of governments as well. Seemingly, the complexity and interconnectedness of the Central Asian and Caucasus issues are too severe to be resolved through bilateral relations. Therefore, multilateral cooperation among and within all governments, organizations and unions may be deemed necessary as a strategy for the countries' external relations in the region.

Abstract The three South Caucasus countries of Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia are located in a complex and volatile region at crossroad of Europe, Asia, and Middle East. These countries share a deep common historical trauma rooted in the Soviet era and suffer from a disserviceexperience. Economic mismanagement, corruption, social hardship, weak institutions, conflicting tendencies toward authoritarianism and reformism, ethnic discords, border unrests and several silent crises in the region are the Soviet legacy for the three countries. The article seeks to examine the security problems of South Caucasus (Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia), trans-regional powers' views (United States, EU, NATO) toward the security of South Caucasus and perspective of the regional powers (Turkey, Russian Federation, the Islamic Republic of Iran) visa-a-vis the region. The theoretical framework of this study is based on the concept of "regional security complexes" initiated by Barry Buzan, but will be integrated with his new theory of inter-subjective securitization to propose a layout beyond the classic theory of security complexes.

Abstract Interdependence in the economic-security areas, historical, ethnic and racial links, common security threats and concerns among the Central Asian states demonstrate a complex network of extending forms of security relations which has made it hard to make to make clear cut border lines of national security of these countries. This interdependence and various links are more indicative of irrefutable necessity to the growth and development of mechanism based on intergovernmental cooperation to oppose, resolve or manage the security threats and other existing independencies in the regional level. Years of relations and dominant equations on the existing regional trends, however, show rare evidence of moving the Central Asian republics towards some cooperation-based arrangements. Developments in intergovernmental cooperation have faced many obstacles and challenges and a clear prospect does not appear in the near future. Accordingly, the article is to find the major obstacles in the way of growth and extension of cooperation among countries in the regional level. The hypotheses to examine are the political structures of the countries in the region, intergovernmental differences and rivalries, emphasis on extreme nationalism, unbalanced level of development, and a variety of actors.