‍Central Asia and The Caucasus Journal

Abstract Gaining political independence and sovereignty, at the end of the unification process, confronted Germany with new foreign policy challenges. On the other hand, The Russian Federation, as the successor to the collapsed empire of the Soviet Union, seeks to limit the damages caused by this collapse by creating new structures in its foreign policy strategies at the regional and global levels. Meanwhile, Central Asia has become an important area for the activation of regional and trans-regional powers , due to the political and geographical situation created after the demise of the bipolar system, because it is rich in huge hydrocarbon resources. Thus, Germany and Russia have defined broad interests for themselves due to reasons such as the membership of the Central Asian republics in the former Soviet Union, as well as the presence of German and Russian minorities in the region that has changed the nature of relations between the two countries in the region after the collapse of the Soviet Union and Germany. Therefore, this article intends to ask the question, with a descriptive-analytical method and based on the theoretical framework of constructivism, whether the relationship between Germany and the Russian Federation in Central Asia is cooperative or competitive in nature? The results of this article indicate that the relations between the two countries, despite their ups and downs and the lack of trust between the two sides, had a cooperative and stable nature in the Central Asian region and commercial, economic, and energy priorities are at the core of these relationships.

Abstract Civil war in Syria and the interventions of regional and transregional players with their diverse and opposite motivations have led to different implications including the strengthening of Tafkirism and recruitment of extremist forces from different regions including Central Asia. Against this backdrop the authors try to find an answer for the following questions: What are the main reasons for the promoting of Takfirism from Syria Crisis to the Central Asia and how it impacts Russia’s interests in the region.
                        The authors argue that interventions of regional and transregional players including Russia has led to promotion of Takfirism to the Central Asia. The second argumentation of the research is that in its attempt to revive the superpower status, Russia considers Syria as its main battle ground against West. The return of Central Asian extremistsfrom Syria would also lead to security implications for the region.

Abstract Central Asia is of great significance for Iran in terms of geopolitical and geostrategic links. In the meanwhile, China and Russia have also paid more attention to Central Asia in recent years and have put forward many initiatives to extend their influence and assert their superiority. This article studies the dimensions and features of Sino-Russian axis in Central Asia and the opportunities that the strategies of the two countries in this region would provide for the Islamic Republic of Iran. Based on the descriptive-analytical research method, the article looks for an appropriate answer to the question on how the Islamic Republic of Iran can get closer to the fulfillment of its interests in that region amid the regional purposes of Moscow and Beijing in Central Asia. The hypothesis is that “China and Russia’s mutual concerns about the security, economic and institutional interests have forced the two countries to adopt coordinated policies. This would bring about regional balance, as the Islamic Republic of Iran can adopt a defensive participation approach in such circumstance to get closer to the fulfillment of its economic and security interests in the region.” The theoretical pillars of the article are based upon the theories of defensive and offensive (structural) realists, and the findings are the result of data gathered from the libraries, documents, sources in the virtual space, and the statistics and figures.

Abstract After the collapse of the USSR and the development of new Russia, the areas that impacted directly on Russia’s security, came into a higher significance. The dominance of geopolitical discourse in Russia and a reliance on historical visions made the near abroad doctrine a priority in Russia’s foreign policy. Russia’s new security strategy also shifted from a global strategy with restrictive approach to a regional one applying an unrestrictive approach. In order to secure its security in the new era, Russia has defined three security circles which respectively are a) Russia; b) Russian Federation (Russia plus the autonomous but dependent Republics); c) near abroad (Central Asia). The present paper tries assess the role and nature of Russian – oriented institutionalism in its policy makings in Central Asia, using Volker Rittberger’s theory. The authors argue that the three cognitive, hegemonic and question oriented factors of the mentioned theory are all applied in Russian institutionalism in Central Asia, each with a different weight and effectiveness. In other words, Russia had mostly been focused on the latter two. Using explanatory - analytical methodology and library resources, the authors try to tell why the research findings provide an answer for the mentioned question.

Abstract The Eurasia Initiative (EAI) was launched in 2013 by the South Korean President immediately following Chinese Belt - Road Initiative and was reaffirmed in 2017 by the current President of Korea announcing the new Northern policy. The Korean idea which seeks to link Seoul with Eurasian energy resources and markets has been formulated independent from the priorities and objectives of the Belt - Road Initiative, but South Korea's involvement in BRI is probably the country's only chance to implement its Eurasian Initiative.Examining Central Asia’s geopolitical and geostrategic position and role in EAI and BRI, the present paper discusses the potentialities for convergence between these two initiatives and South Korea's participation in BRI for achieving its Eurasian perspectives. The authors try to find an answer for the following questions: to what factors does the implementation of the EAI depend; and what is Central Asia’s role in this regard? The hypothesis tested is that Seoul’s joining to BRI is the only real chance to implement EAI, and since Central Asia is a joint chapter of both initiatives, Beijing and Seoul’s shared focus can be effective in developing both initiatives. The methodology this paper applies is descriptive-analytical and the library resources are used. The findings also confirm the validity of the research hypothesis.  

Abstract The European Union's approach to Central Asia has undergone major developments over the past three decades. Compared to the EU's previous strategy in Central Asia (March 2007), its new strategy (May 2019) is influenced by the EU's changing global attitude towards external sovereignty. The present paper tries to answer the following questions: "What are the developments of the EU strategy in Central Asia since the independence of the Central Asian Republics and what reasons lay behind these changes?" In order to find an answer for the questions mentioned above, the hypothesis which has been tested is: "the European Union's strategy in Central Asia is gradually moving away from applying external sovereignty of European values in Central Asia towards external sovereignty of technical criteria and is trying to increase resilience of the countries of this region based on pragmatism with the goal of greater profit. The reason for this change is the negative response of the Central Asian governments to the export of European values and the EU's decreasing benefits of the region compared to other actors." Using descriptive - analytical research methodology the authors try to tell why the research findings provide an answer to the research question.  The theoretical framework underlying this study is the binary of normative power Europe versus the decentralization agenda. The findings of the paper confirm its hypothesis.

Abstract Central Asia has many capacities to generate and use renewable energy. Addressing energy insecurity in the region may be the strongest incentive for Central Asian governments to develop renewable energy resources. Central Asia is rich in hydrocarbon reserves, but the uneven distribution of these resources across countries, burnout of facilities and inefficient energy management, threaten development of the whole region. However, moving towards alternative energy will also have many other advantages for the Central Asia region, including decreasing concerns about energy security in the region. Promoting regional cooperation is one of the definitive benefits of expanding renewable resources in Central Asian countries that the present paper seeks to address. The present literature tries to find an answer for the following questions: "How do implementing renewable energy projects by central Asian countries affect regional cooperation; and why?” The author argues that due to interdependence of the Central Asian countries in the field of energy, the renewable energy resources as their ​​common interest (and not as a parallel, divergent or conflicting interest) as well as the need for regional countries to have an integrated energy system, implementing renewable energy projects by the Central Asian countries can enhance intergovernmental cooperation in regional integration arena. Using descriptive-analytical method and the causal methodology the author tries to tell why the research findings provide an answer to the research question.

Abstract  
Central Asia has been characterized by some regional disputes and tensions including the securitization of border and territorial disputes, water and environment issues, ethnic and linguistic identities, communication corridors and energy transmission lines for more than two decades. However, it has gradually entered a new era of detente and de-securitization since a decade ago that is the transformation of an issue from an urgent political situation into a normal one. This trend has intensified in the past decade with the new generation of regional leaders and the normalization of Tajikistan-Uzbekistan relations. As a result of these developments, many issues such as water, environment, borders and crossings, communication corridors and energy transmission lines, have been gradually taken out of their past securitized situation and have entered into a normal one. The present literature addresses the question that what causes and contexts have led to the détente and de-securitization in Central Asia? In order to reply the mentioned question, the hypothesis can be put forward that "the advent of a new generation of Central Asian leaders as securitizing actors, the new discourse of new leaders and elites, the shared benefits of expanding energy transmission lines and communication and transit corridors as well as common water and environmental threats, have led to detente and de-securitization in Central Asia".  In order to evaluate the proposed hypothesis, the author attempts to provide a better understanding of the new developments taking place in Central Asia by applying the theoretical concepts and components of securitization and de-securitization as presented in Copenhagen security school.
 

Abstract The linkage between terrorism and drugs in Central Asia is commonly based upon a simplified perception of Afghanistan’s situation. Accordingly the violation that is derived from the drug trafficking in the region is usually understood within the same conceptual framework. The present literature addressed the concept of Narco-terrorism and believes that drug trade is not the main factor for terrorist activities in Central Asia. The authors try to find an answer for the following question: How does drug trafficking from Central Asian corridors impact the spread of terrorism in the region? The authors argue that drug trafficking through the Central Asian corridors, facilitate the terrorism in the region but still the violations are less relevant to transnational terrorist groups and more linked to indigenous combatant ones. Using descriptive-analytical methodology and library resources, the authors try to tell why the research findings provide an answer to the research question.
 

Abstract With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the centralized and highly complex mechanism for water resourced allocation in Central Asia turned into a complex cross-border water management problem and left unresolved bilateral claims. Under such a situation, transboundary rivers caused national and regional instability and created a new source of conflict between coastal governments by abandoning regional integration in Central Asia. In addition to natural and historical reasons, the tie between water and energy issues, climate change, population growth and its disparate distribution in Central Asia has exacerbated the security challenges of the water issues in the region. Accordingly, the main question of the present paper is that "On what principles the management of transboundary rivers in Central Asia has been based since the Republic’s independence and how it has affected the security of this region?" The findings of the research, which are descriptive-analytical using documentary and transactional methodology, show that "the principles ruling management of transboundary rivers in Central Asia during the past quarter century have been based on competition, self-orientation and separate national interests of the Republics in Central Asia which have led to local and national conflicts and can be studied as an indirect or complementary source of security instability in Central Asia.”

Abstract The perspective of integration and deepening cooperation among SCO members within last two decades, especially after its recent geographical extension towards South Asia, is faced with serious questions. The most long lasting bilateral disagreement in SCO is the issue about Kashmir between India and Pakistan. A divergence of Beijing and Moscow’s perception about international system and their different expectations from SCO – besides some other factors) also has led to disintegration in Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The present article tries to find an answer for the following question: what are the main internal rivalries in SCO and how will they affect its consistency and future? The author addresses the hypothesis that “the rivalry between China and Russia for determining SCO’s approach and outlines as well as the Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan are the SCO’s main challenges. The former through scattering SCO’s priorities and the latter one through weakening security and defensive relations among the members prevents the Shanghai Cooperation Organization from its future integration and improvement”.

Abstract With the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ankara was very hopeful about the implementation of pan – Turkism. Turkey's expectations in this regard were largely based on the fact that the Central Asian Republics would welcome the idea and at the same time, revival of Russian power was unlikely. Nevertheless, neither the ideology of Pan-Turkism nor Ottomanism led to the victory of its ideals over realities of the region and the international system. The main purpose of this literature is to examine the areas and influential motivations which affect a change of Turkey's foreign policy strategy in Central Asia. Therefore, the present paper addresses the following question: “How Turkey's foreign policy in Central Asia has been affected by developments during the twenty-first century?” The initial response of the authors to this question, based on the preliminary evidence, emphasizes that Turkey's foreign policy outlines in Central Asia during the twenty-first century was influenced by the following factors: a failure to reach tangible achievements through its presence in the Central Asia; the rejection of Pan-Turkism ideology by the Central Asian societies; the presence of the West in the region; and the failure of the unwritten alliance of Turkish government with the Gülenists”. In order to examine the mentioned hypothesis, the theoretical framework of classical neo-realism has been applied. 

Abstract  
            Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) is a regional union of eleven countries in Central Asia, South Asia, South Caucasus and China. This program was established in 2001 by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and has some noticeable achievements in four areas of transportation, energy, trade facilitation and trade policies. It tries to promote energy security in the region through the CAREC Energy Strategy and Work Plan. The present article attempts to find an answer for the following question: Does CAREC Energy Strategy and Work Plan has the potential for promoting energy security in Central Asia, and why?
The author argues that although CAREC is the most important regional initiative for energy provisions in Central Asia, it lacks a proper potentiality for promoting energy security in Central Asia due to prioritizing bilateral and multilateral projects instead of inclusive regional ones; focusing on benefit making for investors instead of transfer of technology to the region; and its instability. Using explanatory – analytical method and through a documentary – library research, the author tries to tell why the research findings provide an answer to the research question.

Abstract The noticeable evolutions and changes, in Uzbekistan’s foreign policy particularly towards Tajikistan that occurred after the sudden death of Islam Karimov on September 2016, arouses the following questions: a) What are the causes for détente and de-securitization in Tajikistan-Uzbekistan relations? b) What ramifications does the mentioned issue bring along?In order to answer the mentioned questions, the author argues that the change in Uzbekistan’s leadership and Mirziyoyev’s effort for domestic growth and development, developing and extending energy pipelines and corridors in the region, besides leaving Karimov’scult of personality have all led to transforming Uzbekistan’s foreign policy and strengthening regional cooperation with the participation of five Central Asian states.In order to assess the literature’s hypothesis, the author addresses Tajikistan and Uzbekistan’s relations in two specific eras of securitization (1991-2016) and de-securitization (since September 2016), based on descriptive-analytical method and applying theoretical concepts and factors of (de)securitization within the Copenhagen School of security.During the first decade that encompasses a long period of Karimov’s leadership in Uzbekistan (1991-2016), many social (ethnicity, language and culture) and economic (water resources and environment) issues between the both nations were deviated from their natural and normal direction and became politicized and securitized. However, during the letter era, Uzbekistan was experiencing an evolution that was derived of two main reasons; a) a change of elites and actors in Uzbekistan,particularly Karimov and Inoyatov; b) Mirziyoyev’s taking the power. The mentioned factors changed Uzbekistan’s dominant discourse towards Tajikistan. This discourse change led to a better cooperation among the five Central Asian states in diverse areas without an involvement of external powers especially the Russian Federation and China.
 

Abstract The present literature attempts to throw light on extremism in Xinxiang, its causes and strengthening factors. Furthermore the central government’s transaction and proceedings towards the citizens of that province in scrutinized. Regional and racial divergence of Xinxiang Uighurs in contrast to China’s main population, besides susceptibility from extremist and Islamist groups in Central Asia are among the causes of extremism in Xinxiang. This land is prone to instability and growing clashes between Han Chinese and indigenous Uighurs; the first one in an attempt to overwhelm, and the latter one for autonomy or dependence. Focusing on the effects of Central Asia extremism on separatism and extremism inclinations in Xinxiang, the authors try to find an answer for the following question: What strategies has China’s central government taken for containing extremism in Xinxiang? The authors argue that China’s government has taken a hybrid containment strategy. The strategy of developing China’s western regions; suppression strategy; religious control and population change are the most important internal measures taken by China’s government in economic; security; and cultural – societal sectors respectively. Strengthening economic relations with Xinxiang neighbors, investment in energy sectors in that region, Belt – Road Initiative, using potentialities of SCO, as well as designing a political – security strategy for stabilizing neighboring countries to Xinxiang, are the measures taken for the exterior dimension. Using explanatory – analytical research method, the authors try to tell why the research findings provide an answer to the research questions.

Abstract Water has a vital role in all aspects of human life. It is used for developing all areas including agriculture, industry, and human development. Potable water resources are very rare and unevenly distributed. The importance of water resources management is more highlighted in drylands or semi-arid lands. Central Asia is one of the drylands that the water shortage has impacted on its agriculture. The present article addresses the following question: Does correct and appropriate consume of water lead to sustainable development in Central Asia? The water shortage and uneven distribution of water resources, region’s economically dependence on agriculture and the vital role of water for development, as well as lack of intergovernmental cooperation for water resources management, are the main obstacles for the implementation of development, sustainable development and creation of opportunities for future generations. Using explanatory – analyzing method and referring to library and governmental and international documentary resources, the authors attempt to provide the hypothetical answer to the mentioned question.

Abstract Sino-Russian relationship has been in the stage of strategic cooperation for more than two decades. This cooperation covers different areas including economic cooperation. Trade of goods, energy transportation and foreign investment are components of Sino-Russian economic relationship. Starting from a very low level in 1990s, economic cooperation between the two countries has traversed a rising trajectory despite some fluctuations, and officials from both sides have always tried to expand this cooperation. Strategic nature of the relationship between China and Russia is emphasized by political experts and officials from both countries. Given the strategic nature of Sino-Russian relationship, our primary research question is as the following: what is the strategic significance of the economic cooperation between China and Russia, within the overall framework of their relationship? The authors firstly define the concept of strategic relationship based on the emphasized characteristics of such a relationship. Then, the strategic significance of economic cooperation between China and Russia is assessed using this definition. The hypothesis of the authors is that the economic cooperation between China and Russia lacks a high level of strategic significance.

Abstract Following the collapse of USSR, Russia was neglected from a serious attention towards Central Asia and Caucasus countries due to its own internal issues. Therefore a geopolitical vacuum emerged in this region and was followed by the activities of both regional players (including Iran, Turkey and the Zionist Regime); and transregional ones (the US and NATO). The conceptualization of “Near Abroad” in Russia’s national security document in 2015 and Putin’s second presidency, as well as Russia’s political, economic and social ties with Central Asian Republics, all led to Russia’s serious attention once again towards the mentioned Republics, afterward referred to as Russia’s “backyard” or “sphere of influence”. In order to scrutinize Russia’s most important foreign policy challenges, using explanatory – analytical method, the present article attempts to answer the following question:  Which factors are within Russia’s most important foreign policy challenges for expanding its cooperation in Central Asia according to national security document and during Putin’s second presidency? Using defensive realism, the author believes that NATO’s expansion to East, terrorist activities in the region and United States unilateralism are Russia’s most important foreign policy challenges in Central Asia.

Abstract The present article mainly attempts to deliver a comparison between China and US policies in combating terrorism in Central Asia. Therefore it addresses the following question: Which policies have been used by US and China for preventing the expansion of terrorism in Central Asia? The hypothesis is that these two actors have chosen a cooperative and interactive policy for combating terrorism. Central Asia’s security and stability has a greater importance for China. That is why China has some security considerations that have led this country to multilateralism while the United Sates is less inclined to it. The other differentiation is that US approach towards combating terrorism is military – based, while China emphasizes on political and economic methods.

Abstract Central Asia’s ecosystem is reliant on region’s rivers and lakes. The conflicts over water resources still remain as a potential threat due to the unstable environment. The present article tries to explain the root causes of water crisis in Central Asia through answering the following question: The water crisis in Central Asia is leading towards divergence or integration? The elements such as USSR water management heritage, lack of access to energy resources, ambiguity in international rules, etc. the water crisis in Central Asia seems to lead to a conflict. Therefore international institutions are to strengthen regional integration for water resources.

Abstract Some international actors have sought to revive and benefit from the symbolic power of the term “Silk Road” in recent years. China launched the "One Belt One Road" initiative in 2013 and presented the Silk Road Economic Belt with Central Asia as its main route. Earlier in 2011, the United States officially used the romantic term of the Silk Road to define its foreign policy towards Central Asia. However, the American narrative of the Silk Road distinguishes from its Chinese narrative. This study is aimed to compare geopolitical discourses on which the American and Chinese narratives of the New Silk Road in Central Asia rely. This literature addresses the following question: “which geopolitical discourse shapes the American and Chinese narratives of the New Silk Road?” In spite of US resorting to the Silk Road metaphor, its New Silk Road map is based on redefining the geopolitics of domination in Central Asia, while China's Silk Road Economic Belt is based on a critical geopolitical idea, and recognizes Central Asian Republics as influential geopolitical actors. 

Abstract            Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and almost after two decades, India’s hopes for US support for effectively connect it to the landlocked Commonwealth of Independent States in Central Asia were dashed away. Exploring other connectivity options including the International North–South Transport Corridor -or Iran as the lynchpin of its connectivity- was delayed under the US pressures. Other alternatives were also not feasible. Therefore, given the trajectory of political economy of India’s foreign policy, the main question of this article is ‘what are the best options to get India connected to Central Asia? The hypothesis is that, the demise of the American hegemony has led India to a diversification in its policies. To conclude, the authors develop a model to verify India's foreign policy, and further, they argue that the Prime Minister Narendra Modi's policy of "Alliance with the United States and the West"; the prospects of India's re-orientation to a balanced multi-alignment policy; as well as India's CIS strategies would be subject to further studies. 

Abstract            Israel’s doctrine of periphery alliance has always functioned as a means to higher security, development of economic relations, and also counteracting the isolation of its government in the region. By finding the regional condition as not satisfactory, Israel has attempted to compensate for its isolation through relations with peripheral governments. Within several decades this doctrine has preserved its form; however, following the middle east transformation in 2011, the periphery doctrine has gained a new content and form ever since and Israel tries to add new regions and countries to its classic agenda. A region that has an outstanding role in the new alliance is Central Asia and the Caucasus. Among Central Asian countries, Kazakhstan is very important for Israel due to its significant political and economic role in the region. The purpose of this research is to analyze the nature and mechanism of Israel’s new doctrine of periphery alliances and its aims in the region after 2011 transformations. This study intends to answer the question that what are the main reasons and motivations of Israel in getting involved in Central Asia and strengthening relationships with countries such as Kazakhstan? The findings indicate that in the new doctrine of periphery alliances, Israel looks beyond the reach of Middle East and in this status, regions and countries that could drag Israel out of the regional political and economic isolation are undeniably important. Central Asia, with its strategic and geopolitical significance and also its economic potentials, can offer what Israel needs.    

Abstract Since the beginning of the third millennium, the European Union's policy toward the Central Asia has been a major part of the EU's common foreign and security policy. Central Asia has traditionally provided a link between Asia and Europe and plays as a strategic route between the two continents. The most comprehensive European document on Central Asia entitled "EU-Central Asia: Strategy for a New Partnership" was adopted in June 2007 and boosted the EU-Central Asia relations. The Main question of this article is "in order to implement its normative power, which instruments are used by the EU and which challenges it confronts?" In response to this question, the following hypothesis is posed: "Promoting democracy, human rights, rule of law, education, and environment are among the most important programs implemented by the EU in Central Asia; however, due to some shortcomings such as the role of other powerful actors in the region, different approaches of the member states and the European institutions as well as structural weaknesses, the EU has failed to achieve all its goals in the region. The research method applied in this article is analytic-descriptive.

Abstract Central Asia has been always under special attention of regional and transregional powers due to its natural resources. A thorough scrutinize in China and Japan’s foreign policy strategies between 2012 and 2016 demonstrates that in one hand China follows some economic, security, energy and political interests in the region, and in the other hand, Japan seeks some regional and international long time goals such as economic and energy interests. The present literature tries to find out the strategies and interests of China and Japan in Central Asia and to reply this question that which divergences they will face in their future presence in the region. The hypothesis of this study is that China’s strategy is using its rising economic and political power in Central Asia especially through SCO, while Japan is using official development assistance and political multilateralism as well as its capacities in Asia – Pacific regional organizations and United Nation institutions such as UNDP. This research is done using explanatory analytical research method and library and internet resources.