‍Central Asia and The Caucasus Journal

Abstract The Nagorno-Karabakh crisis and the conflicts between Azerbaijan and Armenia in September 2020 and its impact on Other regional and international actors showed the geopolitical importance of this region and the effects of these crises on Iran, therefore, the present research is aimed at answering this question: What threats will the Zangez-Zor Corridor construction program have against the interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran? And in this regard, using the theory of regional security, the hypothesis has been proposed that the creation of Zangezzor Corridor in the territory of Armenia, based on the plans announced by the Republic of Azerbaijan-Turkey axis, can change the regional balance of power to the detriment of the Islamic Republic of Iran; Therefore, the advancement of this project is considered a security threat against the geopolitical and economic interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the most important of which are: the possibility of changing the geopolitical borders by blocking the land border between Iran and Armenia; The possibility of Armenia's convergence with the Western bloc and the intensification of the strategic isolation of the Islamic Republic of Iran; Reducing Iran's transit advantages in the North-South corridor; increasing Turkish influence in the region; jeopardizing national sovereignty and territorial integrity by advancing the Pan-Turkic plan and reviving Azari ethnocentrism; Strengthening the presence of NATO, Israel and Russia in the northern borders of the country. Also, descriptive analytical method has been used in this research and library information collection method has been used.

Abstract The South Caucasus has been an arena of great power competition over the past few decades, and its political, geopolitical, and security developments have profoundly affected relations among the region's countries and their neighbors. The central question of this study is: What consequences have the new security dynamics in the South Caucasus had for Iran–Armenia relations, and how can these consequences be explained within the framework of Regional Security Complex Theory? Drawing on this theory, the present study analyzes recent developments along two dimensions: first, the changing historical role and influence of Iran in regional equations; and second, the impact of Azerbaijan's recapture of Karabakh and Armenia's pivot toward diversifying its strategic partners. The research findings show that Tehran–Yerevan relations have increasingly shifted from a predominantly cultural–economic nature to a pragmatic cooperation, grounded in a shared threat perception of the Azerbaijan–Turkey axis and the implications of the Zangezur Corridor. This cooperation has crystallized in forms such as the development of the North–South Corridor in opposition to the Middle Corridor and the Zangezur Corridor, and the creation of a network of alternative partnerships.

Abstract The South Caucasus region, as part of Iran's civilizational sphere, is of geostrategic importance to the Islamic Republic of Iran beyond the equations related to state-nation relations and geographical borders. Among the countries of the South Caucasus, the Republic of Azerbaijan is of particular importance to Iran in terms of its size, population, natural resources, extensive border with Iran, Shiite religion, Azeri ethnicity, and cultural and civilizational issues. Despite the great potential for convergence and cooperation between the two countries, the instability of bilateral relations has been the main characteristic of the relations between the two countries throughout the history of more than 30 years of relations. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan are two neighboring countries with high cultural similarities that have been in an unstable atmosphere of bilateral relations due to numerous factors. The two countries have many aspects of interaction in bilateral relations in such a way that the scope of issues involved in bilateral relations is very large and diverse and covers a range of political, cultural, economic, military, environmental, and social issues. Therefore, managing bilateral relations in such conditions is very difficult. In this study, an attempt has been made to examine the effective roots in the convergence and divergence of the two countries by applying the theory of layered analysis of causes and to present suggestions for improving bilateral relations. The approach of this research is descriptive-analytical, its method is qualitative and the method of collecting information is library.

Abstract توافق آتش‌بس نوامبر ۲۰۲۰ میان جمهوری آذربایجان و ارمنستان در خصوص منطقه قره‌باغ، نقطه عطفی در ساختار ژئوپلیتیک قفقاز جنوبی محسوب می‌شود که مرزهای سیاسی و موازنه‌های امنیتی منطقه را بازتعریف کرده است. این توافق نه‌تنها قدرت بازیگران محلی را تغییر داد، بلکه نفوذ بازیگران فرامنطقه‌ای را نیز گسترش داد و چالش‌ها و فرصت‌های جدیدی را برای کشورهای همجوار، به‌ویژه جمهوری اسلامی ایران، ایجاد نمود. از منظر راهبردی ایران، پیامدهای این تحولات دوگانه است: از یک سو، بازگشایی مسیرهای ترانزیتی و امکان توسعه زیرساخت‌های انرژی و حمل‌ونقل، فرصت‌های اقتصادی قابل‌توجهی را فراهم ساخته و نقش ایران را به‌عنوان یک بازیگر کلیدی منطقه‌ای تقویت می‌کند؛ از سوی دیگر، تغییر موازنه‌های امنیتی و افزایش حضور نظامی و سیاسی بازیگران خارجی، تهدیدهای بالقوه‌ای برای ثبات مرزهای شمال غربی و امنیت ملی ایران ایجاد می‌کند. این پژوهش با بهره‌گیری از روش تحلیل کیفی، تحولات ژئوپلیتیک پس از توافق ۲۰۲۰ و پیامدهای آن بر منافع اقتصادی و امنیتی ایران را بررسی و ارزیابی می‌کند. یافته‌ها تأکید می‌کنند که اتخاذ سیاست‌های هوشمندانه، متوازن و چندجانبه در تعامل با بازیگران منطقه‌ای، برای حفظ و ارتقای منافع ملی ایران حیاتی است.

Abstract The North-South Corridor is an economic-political plan designed to facilitate transportation and, consequently, increase global trade exchanges. This plan, which is considered a strategic and important project for the countries along this corridor—namely Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, and India, as well as the surrounding countries—can play a significant role in enabling these nations to benefit from its positive effects. Due to various geopolitical and geoeconomic reasons, Iran has become the focal point of this important and strategic project. This research aims to examine the role of the North-South Corridor in the political economy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, utilizing the theoretical framework of neoliberalism and drawing on library and internet resources, employing a descriptive-analytical method. In this regard, it seeks to answer the question of how the North-South Corridor can influence Iran's political economy. In response, the hypothesis is examined that the North-South Corridor can impact the political economy of the Islamic Republic of Iran by reducing transportation time and costs, increasing trade exchanges, enhancing geopolitical positioning, decreasing dependence on the West, and ultimately strengthening regional cooperation. The findings of the research confirm the research hypothesis and also indicate that the implementation of the mentioned plan will be important for facilitating and accelerating the process of de-dollarization and neutralizing Western sanctions.

Abstract The Karabakh crisis remained in a state of neither war nor peace for tens of years, but with the Second Karabakh War, it came out of the state of "frozen conflict" and the South Caucasus, especially the Karabakh region, underwent deep changes. Since this war is not a random thing but rooted in the historical developments of the region, the main question of the article is “how did the course of historical developments in the South Caucasus affect the geopolitics of that region in the 2020 Karabakh war?” In response, this hypothesis proposes that the zero-sum situation was the principle governing the geopolitical developments of the South Caucasus region and its lasting legacy. This article has evaluated the complex history of the South Caucasus its geopolitics and its economic and cultural components, Geo-economics, and Geo-culture, and examined its consequences for the Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020. The findings of the research showed that the Second Karabakh war was an ethnic-territorial war and the economic components played an essential role in its formation. Also, the sum of zero is the ruling principle in this region. In this article, a deductive research approach has been used, which is with the application of the geopolitical study model in the framework of regional studies. The data analysis was descriptive-analytical and the data of this research was collected using internet and library sources.

Abstract Following the outbreak of renewed conflicts between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh in late 2020, a trilateral agreement mediated by Russia was signed. This led to the withdrawal of Armenian forces and civilians from around 35% of the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, putting approximately 70% of the area under Baku and its allies' control. This paper examines the geopolitical dimensions of the Nagorno-Karabakh frozen conflict and explores the prospects for resolving it given the geopolitical changes after the 45-day war in 2020 between Baku and Yerevan. The key research question is: What impact have the geopolitical changes following the 2020 Azerbaijan-Armenia war had on resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh frozen conflict? Using a descriptive-analytical approach and geopolitical framework, the hypothesis was tested that the geopolitical changes have complicated the conflict while strengthening Baku's position. The findings confirm the hypothesis, suggesting the geopolitical complexities make a peaceful solution more difficult while increasing the likelihood of further military action by Azerbaijan.

Abstract In different historical periods, one of the important geopolitical regions for Iran's security has been the South Caucasus region. China is trying to revive the historical Silk Road with a new one-belt-one-way plan, which used to start from China and lead to Europe through Iran and the Caucasus. Iran has a fundamental position in the plan of this corridor; the kind that reaches the Black Sea from Chabahar through the North-South corridor and passes through Armenia, Georgia, and Russia. After the ceasefire in the second Karabakh War, an agreement was reached between Azerbaijan and Armenia, one of the provisions of which is the plan to reopen the old roads. Still, Azerbaijan has an idea beyond the old one-way under the supervision of Armenia and wants to create a west-east corridor in the Zangezor region, directly under the supervision of Baku. This action violates the territorial integrity of Armenia, and also, causes the destruction of Iran's border with Armenia. On the way to creating the western-eastern corridor of Zangezzor, not only the Republic of  Azerbaijan but also many countries support the creation of this corridor. Now, the main question of this research is, what effect does Azerbaijan's plans to create a new corridor have on Iran's security? These countries are pursuing goals such as the creation of NATO's Turani Corridor, a permanent source of energy, and ultimately this extravagance will lead to the blockade of Iran in the northwest and the loss of one of the old crossings and highways.

Abstract Following the emergence of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as an influential regional organization in the expanse of Eurasia in the early 21^st century, Tehran has aptly recognized this mechanism for spread of multilaterism, creation of a Eurasian order, and the connection of the country’s economy with the nonwestern capital and technology markets. On the other side, it has been for long that the Shanghai leaders have come to this conclusion that introducing new governments, both as permanent members and supervising members and participation in the talks, broadens not only the borders of the organization, but also helps alleviate criticisms concerning the limited scope of activities of the organization and increase its effectiveness. As a result, the founding members agreed to Iran full membership process at the 21^st session of the organization, after Iran’s 15 years of waiting. The present paper intends to answer the key question below: What does Tehran full member mean, among the current geopolitical changes in Eurasia? And what role can Tehran play in completing the organization in integrating Eurasia?  Based on the Constructivism Theory and Social Construct of regions, the findings of this research show, using the qualitative method and Inter-minded Horizon , that in a long term look , the Shanghai Organization  provides a significant mechanism for achieving some goals of foreign policy , especially for the “Look to East” policy of Tehran.  Full membership, also facilitates active participation of Tehran in shaping the security and economic status of the region. Tehran, in its turn , can play a major role in formulating and completing the Shanghai Organization, because Iran’s regional interests arise from the country’s goals in creating a Eurasian Society and preventing the region from becoming a hotbed of terrorism and extremism;  using the country’s geo-economic capacities for creating a bridge between Asia and Europe, as well as Iran’s position as a hub of trade and connecting roads in the region , is compliant with the Shanghai Organization’s goals. 

Abstract The independence of the Central Asian and South Caucasus republics in the early 1990s and the establishment of new states along the Caspian Sea inevitably affected the legal status of the Caspian Sea, which had been formed incompletely by previous treaties, and the unilateral actions of the Caspian Sea littoral states in the field of exploitation of the sea's energy resources and the signing of oil and gas contracts with large Western companies had caused disagreements and ambiguities about the legal regime of the sea and the exploitation of undersea resources. The influx of Western oil and gas companies to exploit the black gold in the Caspian Sea, along with the difficulties of not determining the legal regime of the Caspian Sea, further widened the differences between the littoral states and prolonged the negotiation process to reach a comprehensive agreement. The signing of the "Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea" as an important achievement, while resolving many ambiguities and disagreements on the issues regarding the Caspian Sea, will determine the general framework of cooperation among littoral states and will turn the Caspian Sea into another pole of regional cooperation. This article has been compiled with the aim of exploring the causes and areas of cooperation among littoral states in the light of the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea and seeks to provide an appropriate answer for the following question; "how the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea could affect and improve cooperation among littoral states?" The article hypothesizes that by removing many ambiguities about the legal regime of the Caspian Sea, the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea, creates new opportunities for cooperation among littoral states. The present article is of qualitative (descriptive-analytical) type and using methodology (inductive-inferential), the data have been analyzed by library study and documentary analysis.

Abstract Caspian Sea as the world's largest lake is an alive and dynamic geopolitical region, with a new identity that has both potential of Convergence and Divergence. The collapse of the USSR transformed the Caspian Sea from a pure geographic area to a geopolitical region. The Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea was signed and put an end to a number of divergent factors but the status of the Base lines and the delimitation of the central and southern section were not finalized and postponed to the future which may lead to a new divergence. Using descriptive analytical method and library resources the authors try to find an answer for the research question. The authors argue that the establishment of the comprehensive and long-lasting legal status of this body of water requires the formulation of objectives and strategies, via constructive interaction, convergence, confidence building, art of diplomacy and pathology. Continuing dispute over geographic values ​​and frequent changes in positions of coastal states reveals the necessity of formulation of geopolitical strategies.

Abstract The facts and figures as well as expert reviews of international politics prove that China is in the trend of a power rise as well as hegemony afterwards. The main issue is about the opportunities and obstacles that China will face in this trend, especially from the prism of geopolitics. The question is about the impact of geopolitics on China´s prospect hegemony. Since geopolitics is both an opportunity- maker and restrictive factor for hegemony, it would be both a trouble making and a break ahead for China. This literature not only provides a better understanding of main hindrances that China faces ahead in its power rise, but also serves as a source of explanation for understanding its regional foreign policy instruments. Trying to compose a theoretical framework for the relation between hegemony and geopolitics, the authors have studied possible symptoms of China´s prospect hegemony. China´s Belt - Road Initiative is assessed as an instrument for breaking through its geographical obstacles.

Abstract The application of neo-mercantilist policies by the great powers indicates the ineffectiveness of mercantilist exploitation plans of the past century and the emergence of a new era of conflict and competition to establish a business balance and maximize the economic profits. The priority of controlling energy resources of “Central Asia”, has placed the domination policy over hydrocarbon resources at the center of the foreign policy of regional powers “Russia and China”, with the aim of convergence and consolidating their superior position in comparison to the rival power. Leaping for the economic development and at the same time, rising oil and gas prices in the world market, Russia's struggle in order to achieve the foreign exchange revenue, which is obtained from raw materials trade; China's reliance on vital arteries of oil and gas in order to sustain economic growth as well as design neo-mercantilist policies, have made the maximization of the resources’ control inevitable. Occurrence of economic and political crises in the relations between Russia and “European Union” (EU),as well as a reduction in prices, changed Russia's trade strategy in the oil and gas sector, which led to the increase of the volume of exports and commercial convergence with China to supply the foreign exchange revenue deficit. In this regard, due to the competition between the two great regional powers, the question is: Which component has intensified the compilation and implementation of neo-mercantilist commercial-economic policies in the region? The main hypothesis of this article is as follows: The use of rich oil and gas resources with the goals of earning foreign exchange revenues, continuing domestic economic growth, maintaining a balance in prices, coping the domination of rival over resources, have made the pursuit of neo-mercantilist policies in the region essential. The research method in this article is descriptive-analytical, citing on the Latin books and articles and reliable cyberspaces of the web sites.

Abstract The Caucasus always has enjoyed a unique geopolitical importance. The fall of the Soviet Union and its geopolitical aftermath were the factors which dramatically enhanced the significance and influencing role of this vital part of the world. According to the fact that the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Caucasian region benefit from a common cultural and historical heritage and the geographical proximity, it can be said that the geopolitical characteristics of the Caucasus can have direct effect upon Iran's national security. The main question of this study has been carried out based on the impacts of Caucasian region geopolitical shifts on military and political dimensions of national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The inherent tense situation in the Caucasus made the governments of this region weak and at the same time, rendered the Caucasus extremely alluring for the regional and international powers, which might entail their presence and influence, and subsequent tensions. All these factors can seriously endanger the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran and pose military and political threats against Iran.  

Abstract In recent years, the idea of Eurasianism has led Russian Foreign Policy more than any other idea, particularly in the Near Abroad regions. This Idea believes in standing against a uni-polar world. Vladimir Putin emphasizes that at this moment the “Russian Spring” has arrived; in order to regain its lost identity, the country should follow the Eurasian idea to once again bring back its lost regions under the great and glorious Russian flag. At the current time, he more openly and resolutely welcomes confrontation with the West and underlines the importance of protecting the countries spheres of influence. This was evident in the 2014 Ukrainian Crisis. The Ukrainian Crisis showed that Eurasianism has reached its operational stage and that Russia is on the path to the glorious days of Tsarist Russia and the Soviet Union. This paper aims to assess the impact of Eurasianism on international issues through the Ukrainian crisis. Therefore, the main question of the paper is the impact of neo-Eurasian idea on Russia approach towards the Ukraine crisis. To what degree was Russia’s approach influenced by geopolitical and Eurasian ideas? The hypothesis of the paper is that Russian geopolitical requirements, Russian distinct identity, the Neo-Eurasian idea and geopolitical surrounding of Moscow by NATO, are the main causes of Russia’s rigid approach towards the Ukrainian Crisis and the inevitable consequences of the crisis.

Abstract In recent years, the unprecedented development of China and Afghanistan relations and the entrance of China into the domain of Afghanistan political evolutions as a neutral actor indicates China’s endeavor to play an active role in Afghanistan issue after thirty years following the policy of “patient and expectation”. The exit of NATO from Afghanistan in 2014 provided an opportunity for China to adopt a new approach in consideration of geopolitical neighborhood. This view of China, contrary to the past, has transformed china from a supervisor country into a constructive mediator country in Afghanistan. The geopolitical neighborhood approach of China includes four political, strategic, geographical and economic significant traits, and Beijing hopes to remove its concern over political security and commercial economics through this approach in Afghanistan. China’s security concerns along with important changes in geopolitical and geo-economic conditions have obliged it to adopt a more active diplomacy in Afghanistan. This paper attempts to answer the question that what are the features and consequences of China's new diplomacy in Afghanistan? This study hypothesizes that constructive interaction with Afghanistan will develop strategic, economic, and security interests of China that are directly concerned with China’s national security risks and its economic opportunities. In fact, Afghanistan as a fragmented, chaotic and fundamentalist country is against the interests of China and a threat to maintaining stability in the autonomous region of Xinjiang.  

Abstract In the aftermath of the Soviet Union’s collapse, although geopolitical theory of New World Order, could nor provide the world within a comprehensive order, the globalization process could seriously influence upon world’s strategies. Abreast with this, new challenges have emerged with political, economic, cultural, and security fields being affected. Although Caucasus area, as one of the major geopolitical regions of the world, is neighbor to Russia, Iran, and Central Asia, it includes particular ethnicities, large energy resources, and significant transit roads and its political geography is overshadowed by such issues as nationalism and Islamic fundamentalism.  This study is aimed at investigating the effect of globalization phenomenon upon security constructs of Caucasus area, analyzing the role of ethnicities and Islamic fundamentalism in these structures and peace-making geo-political constructs therein. Achieved results seem to be indicative of Russian and American rivalries in this region. Therefore, security structures are a function of these countries’ activities in Caucasus and an analysis of their policies in this region.

Abstract Before collapse of the Soviet Union, energy pipelines of Central Asia and Caucasus regions were exclusively possessed by the Russians, who were the only regional power in geopolitics of these regions. Collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, economic weakness of the Russians in controlling the situations, and open, pro-Atlantic political atmosphere of Gorbachev and Yeltsin periods provoked a strong presence of regional as well as transregional actors so as to exploit energy of these regions. Investments made by such actors in extracting oil and gas and constructing pipelines for energy transit lessened the Russian monopoly and caused geopolitical changes in these regions.
This article attempts to describe the effects of construction of energy transit pipelines on the geopolitics of these regions after collapse of the Soviet Union. The assumption goes that construction of energy transit pipelines by regional and transregional actors has not solely pursued economic benefits and has resulted in further political and security intervention of such actors in the geopolitics of Central Asia and Caucasus. This has, in turn, reduced the level of Russian monopoly in energy field and political and security issues of these regions.

Abstract The importance of Ukraine as one of the most cosmopolitan countries in the world due to its "geopolitical", "strategic" and "geo-economical" characteristics has made this country one of the most important topics in the competition between Russia and the USA in the international field. The USA and the West's efforts to promote Western values ​​and the promotion of democracy in Ukraine, Ukraine's membership in NATO and the European Union, are all indications of the effort to remove this country from Russia's orbit. Therefore, since each of the two sides act in a different manner, no end to the current conflict between Russia and the West led by the USA can be envisioned and expected. In such circumstances, and in consideration of the recent developments, the question arises whether defensive realism can explain Russia's foreign policy towards the crisis in Ukraine or not? It seems due to factors such as overall strength and power, geographical proximity, offensive power, and aggressive intentions, defensive realism is capable of clarifying and explaining Russia's foreign policy in regards to the Ukraine crisis.

Abstract The Collapse of the Soviet Union caused a very important change in the security environment of the areas that were separated, including the South Caucasus. The emergence of three states of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia in the South Caucasus led to changes in the regional security equations and interaction patterns, which were influenced by the presence and number of actors, and the complexity and variety of regional issues, including the issues of ethnicity, political and territorial disputes and economic problems. The presence of numerous external actors, including governments and various alliances are amongst the most important security and economical developments in the countries of the South Caucasus. This paper seeks to answer the question, why after gaining their independence the South Caucasian countries have started to follow the model of alliances and coalitions in their foreign policy and have employed this strategy in their agenda? The hypothesis here is that security and political challenges in the region, being surrounded by large regional states and the economic weakness of the South Caucasian countries, are at the root of the tendency to adopt a pattern of establishing  alliances with regional and extra-regional actors.