‍Central Asia and The Caucasus Journal

Abstract The South Caucasus has been an arena of great power competition over the past few decades, and its political, geopolitical, and security developments have profoundly affected relations among the region's countries and their neighbors. The central question of this study is: What consequences have the new security dynamics in the South Caucasus had for Iran–Armenia relations, and how can these consequences be explained within the framework of Regional Security Complex Theory? Drawing on this theory, the present study analyzes recent developments along two dimensions: first, the changing historical role and influence of Iran in regional equations; and second, the impact of Azerbaijan's recapture of Karabakh and Armenia's pivot toward diversifying its strategic partners. The research findings show that Tehran–Yerevan relations have increasingly shifted from a predominantly cultural–economic nature to a pragmatic cooperation, grounded in a shared threat perception of the Azerbaijan–Turkey axis and the implications of the Zangezur Corridor. This cooperation has crystallized in forms such as the development of the North–South Corridor in opposition to the Middle Corridor and the Zangezur Corridor, and the creation of a network of alternative partnerships.

Abstract Deep geopolitical changes in the South Caucasus have had a significant impact on the relations between Iran and the Republic of Armenia. The geographical location and strategic importance have turned this region into one of the most important regions in the world, and the active presence of regional and extra-regional actors has had a direct impact on this relationship. This research seeks to evaluate the behavioral pattern of Iran and Armenia in the South Caucasus region, especially after the changes caused by the Second Karabakh War in 2020, because the Second Karabakh War changed the balance of regional power, the strategic environment and the perspective of arrangements. It has revolutionized the geopolitics of the South Caucasus. In this regard, the main question of the research is raised in this way, what was the behavior pattern of the Islamic Republic of Iran towards Armenia in the South Caucasus region? Using the concept of geo-polynomics, it is argued that Tehran's behavioral pattern to maintain the balance of power in the South Caucasus region is to expand the political, security and economic relationship with Armenia, especially after the second Karabakh war; Of course, geopolinomic concZangzor Corridor and military-intelligence exchange have remained strong, which after 2020 will increase tensions in the South Caucasus, especially between Iran and the opposite bloc. which includes Azerbaijan, Turkey and thonist regime. We do this important based on the descriptive-analytical approach using qualitative research methods that have been used in collecting information from documentary-library sources and authentic cyberspace websites.

Abstract Following the outbreak of renewed conflicts between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh in late 2020, a trilateral agreement mediated by Russia was signed. This led to the withdrawal of Armenian forces and civilians from around 35% of the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, putting approximately 70% of the area under Baku and its allies' control. This paper examines the geopolitical dimensions of the Nagorno-Karabakh frozen conflict and explores the prospects for resolving it given the geopolitical changes after the 45-day war in 2020 between Baku and Yerevan. The key research question is: What impact have the geopolitical changes following the 2020 Azerbaijan-Armenia war had on resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh frozen conflict? Using a descriptive-analytical approach and geopolitical framework, the hypothesis was tested that the geopolitical changes have complicated the conflict while strengthening Baku's position. The findings confirm the hypothesis, suggesting the geopolitical complexities make a peaceful solution more difficult while increasing the likelihood of further military action by Azerbaijan.

Abstract In a realistic approach, Iran's security interests in the South Caucasus are guaranteed by maintaining the regional balance of power. Therefore, the plan to build the Zanegzur Corridor has led to some speculations about the changing balance of power in this region against Iran. the article examines the possible threats of this corridor against the interests of of Iran and answers the below question: What threats does the plan of Zangezur Corridor against the interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran? The findings of the research show that the construction of the Zangezur Corridor in Armenia, based on the plan announced by the Azerbaijan-Turkey axis, changes the regional balance of power against the interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Therefore, the development of this project is considered as a security threat against Iran's geopolitical and economic interests, the most important of which include the following: The possibility of changing the geopolitics of the borders through blocking the territorial border of Iran and Armenia; The possibility of Armenia's convergence with the Western bloc and the intensification of the strategic isolation of the Islamic Republic of Iran; Reducing Iran's transit advantages in the North-South corridor; increasing Turkish influence in the region; jeopardizing the territorial integrity of Iran through the incitement of pan-Turkic sentiments and the revival of Azeri ethno-nationalism; Strengthening the presence of NATO, Israel and Russia in the northern borders of Iran. Theoretically, this article benefits from the theory of balance of power in the school of realism.

Abstract Turkey-Azerbaijan relations, a year after the 2^nd Karabakh War, has taken complicated military, political and regional dimensions. Holding several joint military drills between Turkey and Azerbaijan has drawn attention of media circles and caused security concerns for some neighboring countries. In the Karabakh dispute, Turkey’s role in support of Azerbaijan for entering a new war with Armenia was deciding. This policy makes question about Turkey’s goals in supporting Azerbaijan in the war with Armenia. Turkey’s foreign policy since 2016 onward and after military interference in Syria has taken an aggressive aspect. It seems that Turkey’s support for Azerbaijan in the Karabakh dispute and the pace of events afterwards, are the continuation of the policy of militarism in surrounding perimeter. The authors of the present article believe that by indirect interference in the Karabakh dispute, Turkey pursues expansion of influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. In examination of Turkey’s foreign policy in the Karabakh dispute, realism and aggressive realism in particular are the theoretical bases.

Abstract The attempt to retrieve Russia's position as one of the key actors in the international arena can be considered as a major feature of Russian foreign policy after Putin's rise to power. The Kremlin's foreign policy strategy in relation to the revival of the Russian empire and the vulnerable geopolitical situation and the political isolation of the Republic of Armenia have provided the basis for further Kremlin-Yerevan cooperation and promoted relations to the level of strategic partnership. The strategic partnership and the sustained cooperation that the two countries have had after the collapse of the Soviet Union have provided the Kremlin's strategic interests in the Caucasus region.
According to the above matters, the present article aims to study the political, economic and military-security dimensions of Russian influence in the Republic of Armenia. The main question of this article refers to the interests of Russia towards unification with Armenia. Providing Russia's political and security benefits, including dismantling the Western-European political and military infrastructure (EU-NATO) from the region, along with economic interests, has been the main aim of Russia from cooperation and unity with Armenia. In this paper, it has been attempted to examine Russia's interests in unity with Armenia in a descriptive and analytical way, using the balance of threat theory offered by Stephen Walt

Abstract The Islamic Republic of Iran and Armenia enjoy amity and a relationship free from tension due to geopolitical concerns and an overlap of their interests and foreign policy goals. This has led to an increase in bilateral economic cooperation. Nevertheless, having a limited and fragile economy, Armenia has never been meeting economic needs of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Still, Yerevan can play a significant role as a linking bridge for the exportation of gas to the Caucasus, Ukraine and Eastern Europe, through the pipeline, known as "White Stream". This paper argues that the possible involvement of Iran in the White Stream project is favorable to the interests of exporting countries, transit countries and end-users, while the energy strategies of the United States and Russia are considered as a hindrance for that. Ukraine crisis in 2014 has added to this complexity, though it has highlighted the importance of the issue.  

Abstract Approaching neo-functionalism, the article attempts to discuss achievements in three different periods of short, middle and long terms relations between Turkey and Armenia namely, opening borders, normalization and reliable partners in economic, political, and security areas. In this regard, the article maintains the dynamics governing bilateral relations and their evolution in the given times and context of the region. In the short term, the focus is on the effects of opening borders on the two nations’ economy, while in the middle term the focus is on relief and operation of regional infrastructure remaining from the Soviet era and forming the new communication infrastructure and energy pipe lines and their compliance with the European projects as a gateway to the regional economic integration. Finally, the article discusses the split over the said areas in the long term that may lead to the new types of political alliances and coalitions and the resolution of the regional differences such as Karabakh. According to this approach, the future of the region is not only more sensible but more touchable to the interests of the parties involved, including the regional and ultra regional powers.

Abstract After the Soviet collapse, relations between Republic of Azerbaijan and Turkey have continued at its level of strategic partnership the status which affected much on both countries' different social, economic and political fields so that they jointly played an influential role in the regional politics. However, this friendly and brotherly relation of the two states had often witnessed some tensions too. Of the recent tensions among the two countries is the normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia that unlike previous ones has been of greater effects in the relations between the two so that if not extensive and vigilance efforts of the two countries authorities, this normalization may have ended to closure of Azerbaijan-Turkey relations. According to the findings of this article, the center point of Azerbaijan's relations with Turkey has always been Karabagh that seems to be unsolved now in relations between Turkey and Armenia.

Abstract In recent years, relations between the Russia Federation and the south littoral states have experienced some developments. While Russia is continuing its main role in the area, the role of other regional and international actors, such as United States and NATO is increasingly challenging the Russian interests in its vital backyard, the Near Abroad, as called by Russians. To face these challenges and secure its national security and vital interests, Russia is trying to find an effective and less expensive solution. Considering the new conditions of the region, wherein Moscow is unable to discard all rivals from the Central Asia and especially Caucasus political arena, Russian policy and effectiveness has directed and seems to be continued toward not letting its rival strategies achieve their expected results. Russia is also trying to utilize from its privileged economic, political, military situation in the region to control foreign policy behavior of the Caucuses republics in order to eliminate those factors that are in Russian view contradicting with its national security and interests. In this way Russia hopes preventing or delaying the region in its integration with the West political and security structures.

Abstract European neighborhood policy is a move in pursuit of mid-term strategic plan to which reflects the nature of relations with EU neighbors, depicting EU liaisons with this region. In such a context, the impossibility of EU membership by its neighbors due to deep internal and external problems on the one hand and security, political and economic interests of EU in such countries on the other have led to initiating European Neighborhood Policy. Therefore, EU has formulated European neighborhood policy in terms of bi-lateral relations with these countries in order to establish political and economic stability and development of South Caucasian countries based on European norms and standards.  In addition to preserving stability and security of these countries, respecting values like freedom, democracy and human rights are aspects that EU takes into consideration in order to identify the extent of convergence with EU standards. In economic aspects, giving importance to South Caucasian transit routs for access to energy sources of the Caspian Sea region as well as enduring economic reforms based on market economy that creates transparency for investment of European companies in the region, are among interests of European Union. In terms of security issues, due to of Russian direct influence to take advantage of conflicts between these countries and the separatist movements the EU has reached a deadlock in seeking peaceful solutions for such conflicts, using diplomatic and economic means