‍Central Asia and The Caucasus Journal

Abstract Following the outbreak of renewed conflicts between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh in late 2020, a trilateral agreement mediated by Russia was signed. This led to the withdrawal of Armenian forces and civilians from around 35% of the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, putting approximately 70% of the area under Baku and its allies' control. This paper examines the geopolitical dimensions of the Nagorno-Karabakh frozen conflict and explores the prospects for resolving it given the geopolitical changes after the 45-day war in 2020 between Baku and Yerevan. The key research question is: What impact have the geopolitical changes following the 2020 Azerbaijan-Armenia war had on resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh frozen conflict? Using a descriptive-analytical approach and geopolitical framework, the hypothesis was tested that the geopolitical changes have complicated the conflict while strengthening Baku's position. The findings confirm the hypothesis, suggesting the geopolitical complexities make a peaceful solution more difficult while increasing the likelihood of further military action by Azerbaijan.

Abstract In a realistic approach, Iran's security interests in the South Caucasus are guaranteed by maintaining the regional balance of power. Therefore, the plan to build the Zanegzur Corridor has led to some speculations about the changing balance of power in this region against Iran. the article examines the possible threats of this corridor against the interests of of Iran and answers the below question: What threats does the plan of Zangezur Corridor against the interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran? The findings of the research show that the construction of the Zangezur Corridor in Armenia, based on the plan announced by the Azerbaijan-Turkey axis, changes the regional balance of power against the interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Therefore, the development of this project is considered as a security threat against Iran's geopolitical and economic interests, the most important of which include the following: The possibility of changing the geopolitics of the borders through blocking the territorial border of Iran and Armenia; The possibility of Armenia's convergence with the Western bloc and the intensification of the strategic isolation of the Islamic Republic of Iran; Reducing Iran's transit advantages in the North-South corridor; increasing Turkish influence in the region; jeopardizing the territorial integrity of Iran through the incitement of pan-Turkic sentiments and the revival of Azeri ethno-nationalism; Strengthening the presence of NATO, Israel and Russia in the northern borders of Iran. Theoretically, this article benefits from the theory of balance of power in the school of realism.

Abstract European neighborhood policy is a move in pursuit of mid-term strategic plan to which reflects the nature of relations with EU neighbors, depicting EU liaisons with this region. In such a context, the impossibility of EU membership by its neighbors due to deep internal and external problems on the one hand and security, political and economic interests of EU in such countries on the other have led to initiating European Neighborhood Policy. Therefore, EU has formulated European neighborhood policy in terms of bi-lateral relations with these countries in order to establish political and economic stability and development of South Caucasian countries based on European norms and standards.  In addition to preserving stability and security of these countries, respecting values like freedom, democracy and human rights are aspects that EU takes into consideration in order to identify the extent of convergence with EU standards. In economic aspects, giving importance to South Caucasian transit routs for access to energy sources of the Caspian Sea region as well as enduring economic reforms based on market economy that creates transparency for investment of European companies in the region, are among interests of European Union. In terms of security issues, due to of Russian direct influence to take advantage of conflicts between these countries and the separatist movements the EU has reached a deadlock in seeking peaceful solutions for such conflicts, using diplomatic and economic means