‍Central Asia and The Caucasus Journal

Abstract In this article, while objectively describing what happened in the past few years, the issue of Afghanistan's importance for Iran, the level of connection and solidarity between the two countries, how the threats from Afghanistan are increasing for Iran and to stabilize What should be done about these links and curbing the increasing threats.
The main question of this article is what Iran should do to control the threats from Afghanistan and stabilize the cultural and economic conditions in the Afghanistan
The claim of this article is that Iran is heavily involved in the costs and consequences of Afghanistan's problems, and it has no choice but to deal with the roots of Afghanistan's problems, and Iran is the only one that can. Iran should bring Afghanistan's issues to peace on the condition of adopting appropriate policies and management and mobilizing capabilities.
This linkage between two countries is unique among Iran's relations with other countries and even less so in the relations between the other two countries. At the same time, the issue of Afghanistan has been neglected in Iran for a long time and the necessary attention is not given to it in decision-making centers, decision-making centers and even research and academic centers. Iran has no other choices rather than takes Afghanistan issue as its top priority and help to solve the roots the problem

Abstract The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project, as one of the geoeconomic initiatives in Central and South Asia, has the potential to influence regional geopolitical equations. Afghanistan's transit position in this project makes the country a key point in connecting Central Asian gas resources to the high-consumption markets of South Asia. By posing the main question, "What geopolitical opportunities and challenges does the dynamism of the TAPI project create for Afghanistan?", the present study seeks to examine the geopolitical capacities and obstacles facing this country in the process of realizing the TAPI project. The research hypothesis is based on the fact that although the TAPI project can bring important benefits such as benefiting from transit income, attracting foreign investment, creating employment, strengthening economic ties with neighboring countries, and enhancing Afghanistan's geopolynomics; But on the other hand, challenges such as insecurity along the project route, lack of adequate technical and institutional infrastructure, the Taliban's ambiguous and inefficient political structure, competition between regional and trans-regional actors, and doubts about Turkmenistan's gas capacity have posed serious obstacles to the full realization of these opportunities. This research was conducted using a qualitative method and a descriptive-analytical approach, using reliable library, documentary, and digital resources.

Abstract The present study aims to phenomenologically analyze the strategies for resolving water disputes between Iran and Afghanistan in the Harirud Basin. This study, using a qualitative approach and interpretive phenomenology method, examines the perceptions and experiences of experts in the fields of water, international relations, and the environment in 1403 to 1404. Sampling was purposefully conducted based on the principle of theoretical saturation, and a total of 20 in-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted with 20 people. The data were analyzed using grounded theory and three-stage coding (open, axial, and selective). The findings showed that the strategies for resolving water disputes between Iran and Afghanistan are categorized into 116 open codes and 11 main categories including “mutual benefits”, “formal and informal diplomacy”, “international institutions”, “education and empowerment”, “economic interactions”, “environmental issues”, “scientific and local synergy”, “executive will”, “cultural and social interactions”, “transparency” and “strategic document”. These categories were organized into seven general areas: political, social, cultural, economic, legal and environmental. The results of this study can help policymakers and decision-makers in responsible institutions to design sustainable solutions and reduce water tensions, especially in the Harirud basin.

Abstract This study examines China’s approach toward the Taliban government in Afghanistan, aiming to analyze the challenges, opportunities, and strategic interests that shape Beijing’s stance on recognizing the Taliban. Drawing on Graham Allison’s Rational Actor Model, the Chinese state is conceptualized as a rational actor seeking to maximize its national interests in a complex and high-risk environment. The findings indicate that despite security threats posed by extremist groups such as the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), China is actively seeking to exploit the economic and geopolitical opportunities emerging in Afghanistan. In this context, Beijing has deliberately avoided granting official recognition to the Taliban and has instead adopted a de facto recognition strategy—a cautious and flexible approach. This strategy minimizes political and security risks while laying the groundwork for potential future diplomatic and economic engagement. Ultimately, the research addresses the core question: How do China’s strategic interests influence its approach to recognizing the Taliban? China’s strategic calculations—centered on border security, countering extremism, accessing natural resources, and advancing the Belt and Road Initiative—have directly shaped its decision to adopt de facto recognition of the Taliban regime. This explains how Beijing’s strategic interests have influenced its policy choices toward the Taliban and resulted in both opportunities and challenges within the realm of Chinese foreign policy and regional security.

Abstract طی سه دهه سپری‌شده از فروپاشی شوروی، امنیت و توسعه از اهداف یکایک کشورهای آسیای مرکزی بوده که تحقق آنها همواره تحت‌الشعاع شماری از محدودیت‌ها و تهدیدها بوده است. منشأ برخی از این تهدیدها افغانستان بوده، که عبارتند از تروریسم، افراطی‌گری مذهبی، و عرضه و قاچاق مواد مخدر. یکسان نبودن میزان این تهدیدها برای کشورهای منطقه منجر به تفاوت دیدگاه‌های این کشورها در قبال مسائل افغانستان شده است. سیاست خارجی ازبکستان در قبال افغانستان شامل دو مرحله می‌شود؛ مرحله اول (1991-2016)، مرحله حفظ فاصله و رویکرد محتاطانه نسبت به افغانستان و مرحله دوم (2016 - تاکنون)، که مرحله توسعه روابط سیاسی و اقتصادی است. این پژوهش به‌دنبال پاسخ به این پرسش است که سیاست خارجی ازبکستان در قبال افغانستان در دوره شوکت میرضیایف دنباله‌رو سیاست اسلام کریم‌اف (سیاست درهای بسته) است یا مشی دیگری دارد؟ در پاسخ، این فرضیه مطرح می‌شود که سیاست خارجی ازبکستان در دوره میرضیایف در قبال افغانستان سیاست درهای باز است و با وجود سقوط نظام جمهوریت و استقرار طالبان در رأس قدرت، در تکاپو برای افزایش ارتباطات و همکاری‌ها با امارت اسلامی افغانستان است. یافته‌های این پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که خط‌مشی تاشکند در خصوص روابطش با کابل در چارچوب راهبرد سیاست خارجی میرضیایف با روی کار آمدن وی دچار تغییراتی شد و سرنگونی حکومت اشرف غنی و حاکمیت یافتن طالبان نیز دگرگونی‌ قابل توجهی در این سیاست پدید نیاورد. با توجه به رویکرد بررسی مقایسه‌ای و تمرکز بر مرحلۀ توصیفی آن، روش مورد استفاده در این نوشتار کیفی و از نوع مقایسه‌ای است.

Abstract The long-term political conflict in Afghanistan over the acquisition of power reached its peak in 2022 with the fall of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the Taliban's resumption of power. However, to find the roots of the many causes of this event, we must consider the geographical and ethnic-racial features of Afghanistan, along with the efforts of the modern governments of this country in the direction of nation-state building in the context of political history, as well as the role of neighbors and regional and extra-regional powers. In addition, centralized/decentralized and federal/non-federal governance models should also be discussed in theory and practice. In this article, an attempt is made to answer this question: why can the governance model based on centralized federalism be a desirable political solution to end the long-term power conflict in Afghanistan? According to the research hypothesis, due to the mosaic fabric of society in Afghanistan and the preference of ethnic tendencies over national tendencies and interests, the model of federalism and at the same time the existence of a powerful central federal government can be presented as a desirable political solution. The research results that the factors of the fall and collapse of the Afghan government were the high level of government concentration, the lack of attention to the participation of political groups and ethnic groups in power, and the lack of use of the capacities of local governments.

Abstract Anti-security variables for any government are considered fundamental priorities for its survival. Therefore, the countries' policymakers focus on identifying and eliminating the variables. Afghanistan's social system has certain variables and entanglements that have increased the scope of this complexity with the intensification of the waves of modern civilization and its spread to this environment. This article focuses on understanding the social roots of security in Afghanistan. Therefore, the current research seeks to answer the question, how does the social system of Afghanistan affect the security coefficient of Afghanistan? According to the hypothesis of the research, Afghanistan has an active three-gap society, which leads to tension in Afghanistan. The findings of the study show that this society with three Gaps creates a continuous cycle of tension, causing its consequences to be exported to the surrounding countries. Therefore, the internal security of Afghanistan and the security of Afghanistan's neighbors are affected by the changes and developments in Afghanistan's social context. This research is developmental the research method is qualitative, and the type of document analysis and its tool is the Note-taking method.

Abstract In 2021, with the withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan, the Taliban returned to power after nearly twenty years. The return of the Taliban has had various geopolitical, social, political, and economic effects on Afghanistan and the region. This article is dedicated to answering a crucial question: what effects has the Taliban's rise to power had on Afghanistan's economy? It collects and categorizes library resources analyses previously written in this field and analyzes Afghanistan's economic data during the Taliban era. The central hypothesis is based on the premise that the Taliban's return to the political scene in Afghanistan has had negative effects on the country's internal economic indicators and the welfare level of its people, leading to the creation of recession, poverty, and unemployment. However, from a regional economic perspective, the Taliban has managed to maintain its trade levels by exporting agricultural products and raw materials. Although the Taliban has not successfully reduced unemployment, alleviated poverty, decreased recession, or increased production and business within Afghanistan, it has managed to maintain its trade relations with neighboring countries compared to the republic era.

Abstract Central Asia is considered an influential strategic bull's eyes from Russia's point of view, so the mutability in this adjoining country of the region is aforethought Russia's insecurity. Russia seriously fought to reduce instability in Central Asia to ensure stable security in countries bordering Afghanistan by creating a collective security alliance or coalition entente. From 2001 to 2020, we were on the verge of the collapse of the central government of Afghanistan; Russia initiated various security policies for the region according to Afghanistan's security conditions.  interacting with America for fighting against terrorism; this country was the protagonist for overthrowing the Taliban government in 2001, but then to cooperating with the Taliban for the withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan in 2021; Russia made it as a part of its security strategy. Russia’s strategy explained a realist theoretical framework that derived from Mersheimer's bellicose realistic pragmatism. The main query of this research is: "What was the Strategic impact of Russia in Central Asia on the Security condition of Afghanistan during 2001-2020?"  "Russia's strategy in Central Asia after the overthrowing of Taliban aimed for boosting and strengthening security in Central Asia, as considering as prevailing conditions in Afghanistan." Russia's concern about the smuggling of narcotics and the influx of extremists from Afghanistan to Central Asia persuaded this government to fight against terrorist groups. Russia tried in its strategy to prioritize the security of the borders of Central Asia, which is adjacent to this country. This research explained the descriptive-analytical method and library resources.

Abstract Afghanistan has an important position for the countries of the region, including China, in terms of having rich natural resources and having an important transit position as a link between regions such as Central Asia, South Asia, and West Asia. With the Taliban once again dominating Afghanistan, China's relations with this group have entered a new stage, and Afghanistan is still the focus of China's foreign policy. In this regard, this research aims to examine the trends governing China's political economy and its impact on the country's foreign policy towards the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. Therefore, this research tries to use the qualitative method and sample research method to address the basic question of how China's political economy has directed the country's foreign policy towards the Taliban. In response to this hypothesis, China's political economy, with its neo-mercantilist approach and centralized capitalism, has directed the foreign policy of this country to serve the economic interests and access to Afghanistan's natural resources in interaction with the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The findings of the research show that the upward trend of China's industrial growth requires natural resources for the consumption of domestic industries. In addition, natural reserves are considered essential for the continuation of China's economic growth. Therefore, the necessity of controlling foreign natural resources and transit situations has been inevitable for China's economic development. In the meantime, Afghanistan, with its natural reserves and convenient transit location, can play a strategic role in China's economic interests.

Abstract The security order in Central Asia has undergone a stable process in the transition to new conditions during the last decade. Two catalysts after 2021 have accelerated this process. First, the withdrawal of International forces from Afghanistan, which led to the fall of the government in this country and the rise to power and stabilization of the presence of the Taliban; And second, Russia's military invasion of Ukraine, which increased the tension between the great powers at the international level and created a situation that is interpreted as a new cold war in Russia's peripheral area. These conditions led to forming the security order governing Central Asia in new conditions. In such a situation, this paper seeks to answer this key question: how will the new security order of Central Asia after 2021 affect the security interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran? The hypothesis that is raised in response to this question is based on the proposition that these conditions, by intensifying the security situation of the great power, have caused a decrease in the security factor in Iran's peripheral environment. Strengthening the flow of multilateralism and strengthening expansive approaches in the new security order, implies opportunities. In this paper, I try to prove the hypothesis through the exploration method to discover systematic patterns in Central Asia's security dynamics. The Copenhagen school is considered as the conceptual framework of this research in the comparative approach.

Abstract The international behaviors of governments are considered meaningful and identity oriented when their factors and motivations are identified, explained and scientifically interpreted in the framework of one of the theories of international relations. The deepening and expansion of relations between Afghanistan and Turkey is one of those behaviors that have taken place in the field of international relations, and the analysis and recognition of its causes and factors within the framework of the constructivist theory is the main goal of this article. The constructivist approach, while paying attention to semantic phenomena such as identity, history, narrating and mental perception, also pays attention to material structures such as political and economic interests. The main question of the article is what are the structural foundations that deepened and expanded the relations between Ankara and Kabul from 2001 to 2021.The hypothesis of the article is that the common social, cultural, historical, economic and political structures are considered to be the most important foundations and structural platforms that have facilitated the deepening and expansion of relations between Afghanistan and Turkey in the mentioned time period. Research findings show that "identity" and "interest" are the main axes of relations between Ankara and Kabul. with the difference that identity has played a role as a temporary structure and benefit as a permanent structure. It seems that Turkey has succeeded in achieving its desired goals and interests in relation to Afghanistan.

Abstract Strategic culture is one of the new concepts in international relations literature which has been used by Jack Snyder for the first time. Scientific studies regarding the effects of strategic culture on Islamic Republic of Iran’s behavior have been mainly conducted during the two recent decades and specifically after the rise of crises regarding the nuclear power case and ballistic missile program. The main question of the present paper states: how the strategic culture has been shaping the Islamic Republic of Iran’s foreign policy regarding Afghanistan from 1358 to 1398? Our provisional answer to this question is that strategic culture, through shaping strategic and consistent behaviors, has led the Islamic Republic of Iran to adopt a consistent and ultra-discourse policy towards Afghanistan from 1358 to 1398, unlike the political and discourse-related developments within the country. The present paper is descriptive-analytical and the researcher gathered the necessary data through library resources, social media and interview with Iran’s foreign policy authorities who have been responsible for Afghanistan issues.

Abstract Afghanistan , as an  example of multi-ethnic , multi-racial, multi-lingual , multi-religious, multi-historic and multi-geographical  countries has witnessed Taliban’s 2^nd governance  and the collapse of the government for the 6^th times in the last 48 years. Given the arrogance created in Taliban, concerning the expulsion of the US from the Afghanistan soil, and the Taliban record of governance from 1996 to 2001, and given their current practices, the human rights in Afghanistan including the women’s conditions, health and education, Afghanistan is in an inappropriate situation. The parties involved in Afghanistan are still perpetrating gross violations of international human rights, such as war crimes and other gross infringements of human rights. The proponents of human rights, women rights activists, newspaper staff, health and humanitarian workers, and religious and ethnic minorities were among those targeted by the Taliban and non-governmental actors. During the Taliban takeover of the country, a wave of revenge killings engulfed the country. Thousands, mostly of Shia Hazeras, were forcefully expelled. The little progress made in improvement of women’s rights was reversed under the Taliban rule. The rights of gatherings and freedom of speech were severely restricted. Access to healthcare and international aids were halted. Therefore, the current research intends, while addressing the human rights conditions in Afghanistan under the 2^nd Taliban rule, to examine the statements, regulations, and agendas declared by the US, and probe the US responsibility in present situation in Afghanistan.
 

Abstract

Abstract As a new entity, ISIL has carried out the most violent actions under the flag of Islam and pursued the idea of forming “Welayat-i-Khorasan” in its governmental vision. According to this perspective and subsequent steps such as the announcement of the existence of ISIL raises the question of what implications the strengthening of ISIL's presence in Afghanistan will have for the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Based on the Delphi method as one of the well- known techniques in futures studies, the paper has tried to explore different aspects of the issue by taking advantage of the opinions of elites and prominent experts of Afghanistan affairs. In order to answer the above question, seventeen experts on Afghanistan issues who were selected through the Snowball sampling method answered questions about the various aspects of this issue during four Delphi rounds and out of 19 questions, 14 of them came to a consensus. The findings indicate that the strengthening of the presence of ISIL threatens the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran both domestically and internationally. Opportunities such as expansion of technical and intelligence cooperation or establishing regional and international arrangements are likely subject to do so, but are not significant in comparison to the threats posed. Also, regarding the current differences in the form and nature of ISIL's presence in Syria and Afghanistan, it seems that not only Iran cannot choose the exposure method of Syria but also must not do so.

Abstract Geopolitical genome is the genetic map of a country’s politics which determines its behavior in state and foreign policies. States consider the genomes of other actors as their geopolitical codes. The interaction or confrontation of the states’ geopolitical codes or genomes determines the atmosphere that is in line with or against the national and regional interests. The present paper attempts to answer the following question: To what extent in foreign policy arena, the geopolitical genomes are effective? Considering Afghanistan and Russia case studies; ethnic diversification, drugs, extremism and terrorism, political instability, etc. are known as Afghanistan’s dominant geopolitical codes; and vastness of territory, extremism, and terrorism, NATO and EU expansion eastward, etc. are the ones for Russia. In order to confront the threats that are derived from Afghanistan’s genomes, Russia takes some active measures, while Afghanistan – according to its geopolitical codes- behaves reactively in its foreign policy. Using analytical – descriptive method, the authors try to tell why the research findings provide an answer to the research question.

Abstract Since the ownership of border rivers is not entirely in the hands of a certain country, exploiting and employing these rivers have been always a controversial issue within many governments. Hirmand Border River which originates from Kabul West Mountain and pours into Hamoun pond after traveling 1050 Km has been of the legal issue between Iran and Afghanistan since assigning the Paris agreement in 1857. This paper seeks to answer this question that what are the legal aspects of exploiting Hirmand River, and what principles dominate the international rivers in terms of international law? Thus, based on different approaches to the dominant lawful regime on international rivers, the present paper based on statutory rules, practice and votes of international courts, and government approachesaims to recognize the dominating principles on international rivers and apply them to Hirmand River. Ultimately, this study suggests that the international law principles of international rivers have accepted “the principle of limited territorial sovereignty” on international rivers. And in accordance with international laws principles, rivers whose basins are located in another country, the upstream country cannot change or drift the route of that river or any other act which does harm to downstream countries.

Abstract During the recent decades, Afghanistan has been one of most important drug producers worldwide. Hence, afghan narcotic problem and its effects on various dimensions are one of the concerns of Afghanistan peripheral countries including the Russian Federation. Russia in the new millennium has sustained a growth in the amount of drug consumption and the number of drug users.
Regarding Russia’s “National Security Strategy to 2020” document, this paper attempts to answer the question that “How the impacts of Afghan narcotic on Russia’s national security” can be analyzed? The results assert that Russia and Western Europe are the first targets of Afghan narcotics that value at more than 2.5 million addicts, and 68 percent of them are Heroin users. The spread of HIV/ AIDS through injection drug users (IDUs) incurs staging expenses on economy and security of this country. Furthermore drug poses a threat on the national and human security of Russian Federation, health care, environment and good governance which except the latter one, are all included in Russia’s National Security Strategy.

Abstract The withdrawal of Soviet forces from Afghanistan marginalized Afghan issue in the minds of Russian authorities until they found the roots of Russia's separatist movements in Afghanistan under Taliban. September 11th event unveiled new dimensions of terrorism and potential and actual threats of ruling fundamentalists in Afghanistan.  Then US invasion of Afghanistan provided opportunities for Russian Federation to have a more active role in international relations and the so-called fight against terrorism. This study seeks to answer this question: “What is the Russian Federation's Security Policy towards New Afghanistan (after the  September11, 2001)?” The paper argues that the Russian Federation has largely security interests in curbing and controlling extremism and terrorism in Afghanistan. Accordingly Russia tried to consolidate and strengthen its relations with NATO in Afghanistan, while established and strengthened multilateral security arrangements such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Collective Security treaty. Furthermore the Russian Federation has tried to strengthen its relations with Kabul government in different ways.