‍Central Asia and The Caucasus Journal

Abstract With increasing economic dependence of world on hydrocarbon energy resources, and ongoing tensions in the Middle East and the emergence of Russia as a major player in the global energy market; the resources of oil and gas in Central Asia and their transportation routes to consumer markets have been greatly considered by the great industrial powers. There have been decades of long struggles over controlling natural oil and gas resources and infrastructures, and influence of central Asia that has been called "the new great game" between Europe, China, Russia and America, and each of these powers were trying to outpace each other in order to obtain more influence in the region. In the years of the Soviet Union collapse and the discovery of huge reserves of oil and gas in Central Asia, the competition between the great powers has been intensified. On the one hand, the Russians by confining all the exporting routes of their land have tended to maintain their traditional influence and control over the newly independent states. On the other hand, the United States has entered in the region as a serious competitor, and as a fan of the paths that will lead to its own long-term goals and geopolitical interests. Also, China with its strong incentives to be present in Central Asia and to challenge the hegemonic policies of America and also to achieve the regional energy resources and huge market has entered in this competition. Although Russia is the major power in Central Asia's resources, the presence of new players such as America, and especially China and the efforts of the Republic of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to find alternative ways to transport oil and gas have faced the Russian interests with some challenges in the region. Accordingly, the authors of this article ask this question: who is going to win the power game of having control over Central Asia's resources? Our hypothesis is that due to China's economic growth and the need of this country to the huge oil and gas resources as well as the development of Beijing's relationships with Central Asian neighbors; in the future China will be the main power in the region.    

Abstract Salafism as a relatively new phenomenon has obtained an active and growing role in Islamic affairs of the Russian Federation especially in the Northern Caucasus, in various dimensions.The realization of radical salafis’ endeavors in separatist militants’ activities, either in the framework of al-Qaeda linked Emirate of the Caucasus or in IS Caucasus Province are not the whole story. Another aspect of this phenomenon is the efforts of moderate salafis to increasingly open up the areas for public and official activities in the religious sphere of Northern Caucasus republics. There is so much evidence to indicate salafism as the fastest growing Islamic sect in the Northern Caucasus, which given especial Importance to this phenomenon. According to the internal dynamics of the region, continuation of insecurity in the North Caucasus and the failure of the Russian government to implement its stated policy to eradication of separatist and extremist movements in the region, this phenomenon has been emerged as a crucial problem with national dimension in Russia. In the current situation, there is no doubt about ties between radical salafism in Northern Caucasus and sponsors of radical salafism in regional and international level. The main problem of this paper is about the historical, cultural and political factors which have been playing role in the emergence and development of salafism in the Northern Caucasus. The problem of the paper has been explained and analyzed by descriptive – analytical method. To answer the problem of the paper, a series of historical, cultural and political factors of the Northern Caucasus, including the background, and the political - defiant characteristics of Islam in the region, weakening of Islam during soviet period, post – Soviet sphere and the transformation of the roles of religious actors, rejection of Sufi Islam by the salafists, the lack of a coherent and coordinated policy towards Salafism in the North Caucasus, counterproductive rivalry between Muslim scholars of Russia, counterproductive ethnic rivalry in the region, the consequences of Chechnya wars, assassination of scholars and thinkers of traditional Islam and de-Iranization of the Northern Caucasus have been introduced and surveyed as the hypothesis of the paper.  

Abstract The application of concepts of other sciences can be beneficial for researcher’s understanding of political and international arrangements. One of the concepts that have been used in Geopolitics is the concept of "Code" and "Genome". Geopolitical Genome is the political genetic map of countries that influence the behavior of countries in the domestic and particularly foreign arena. Countries consider the genomes of other actors as geopolitical codes. Interaction or confrontation of countries' code/ genome create an atmosphere that may be in line or inconsistent with national and regional interests. While aiming to identify the geopolitical components affecting Russia and Georgia, the paper attempts to answer the following question: what are the effects of Geopolitical tools on Russian and Georgian Foreign Policy? The hypothesis of this paper is that the gene of ‘great power’ ideology, as well as geo-economic position of Russian Federation versus national minorities, separatism, geostrategic and crossing codes as well as the geo-economic dependence of Georgia, has paved a way for the political exploitation of Georgia by Russian Federation. The results show that there are active and dominant genes with regards to Georgia including: national minorities, separatism, tendency for anti-Russian and trans-regional institutionalism and Atlantisism, geostrategic and crossing situation and geo-economic dependence. With regards to Russia, dominant and active genes such as geo-economy, great power idea, NATO and EU eastward expansion, Russian compatriots in soviet era and geographical greatness that affect both countries' foreign policy.
 

Abstract Over the last decade, Iran’s nuclear case has been an important issue for all great powers. However, the approach and position of Russia particularly in consideration of this issue in the Security Council, due to historical and technical atomic cooperation with Iran compared to other players in the case has been more important than anything else. The approach, position and the aims of Russia in the investigation of Iran’s nuclear case in the Security Council especially in the case of passing resolutions against Iran have had a remarkable impact on the outcome of the issue. Therefore, this paper based on the assumption that national interests have played a steering role in the formation of Russia’s positions and acts, seeks to recognize what factors have been influential in Russia’s positions in the period of passing are solution against Iran by Security Council. In response to this question, we hypothesize that Russia’s impressions of Iran’s nuclear program and its interaction and competition with Iran and America with the dual approach of controlling and balancing, due to exerting pressure on Iran’s nuclear developments and also to moderate west pressure on Iran have caused Russia to prevent America’s military action. In this paper, to investigate and evaluate different aspects of this hypothesis, qualitative methods such as data collection and inter view as well as investigation of documents and Security Council resolutions will be employed.  

Abstract Separation of Crimea from Ukraine and its reunification with the territory of Russian Federation is the result of political and military competition and the geopolitics of West and Russian under the leadership of Putin. In this campaign, Russia aims to extend its influence over the neighborhood which had lost due to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Ukraine crisis changed the balance of power in favor of the West and strengthened the European Union and extended NATO borders. In fact, Russia is considered as the geopolitical loser of this crisis, since without Ukraine, Russia’s efforts to revive the empire will be devoid of geopolitical influence. The present paper aims to investigate the factors affecting the separation of Crimea from Ukraine and its reunification with Russia. In this case, the question that arises is that what factors induced Russia to invade Crimea and annexed it. In response, we hypothesize that the reason for there unification of Crimea with Russia is West threatening acts. However, Russia’s cultural and historical claims toward Crimea played a role in this issue. In this paper, we have attempted to investigate the extension of NATO and European Union to the traditional domain of Russia, viz. Ukraine, based on the analytical and descriptive method and using the balance of threat (BoT) theory of Stephen M. Walt.

Abstract Transformation in the Middle East geopolitical security environment after September 11, has induced the players in the region to adopt different realistic approaches to critical incidents. In this case, Russia is one of the players who has adopted a realistic approach and deeply involved itself in Syria crisis. In this crisis, Russia in a geopolitical conflict and in competition with other regional and trans-regional rivals pursues its military-security and strategic interests. Contrary to some regional players, with different and contradictory positions who consider and pursue the overthrown scenario of Bashar Al-Assad, Russia keeping its security considerations in this crisis, attempts to support Syria government against internal opposition and international supporters, and keep Assad Regime in power so as to provide its interests and strategic objectives both in Syria and in the security environment in East Mediterranean. Regarding this concern, the main question is that what is the geopolitics importance of the Syria in Russia’s security environment? To answer this question, the authors hypothesize that in the security environment of Russia, military and strategic importance of Syria is of a great value which keeps a balance in security equation of East Mediterranean. It should be noted that this paper will adopt aninvasiveand defensive realism approach all throughout its content.

Abstract Strategic decision-making in foreign policy arena needs a strict cognition of external realities, self-potentialities, scrutinizing possible options, and an exact calculation of the costs and the achievements of each action. Therefore, cognition and analysis of the environment is a necessity for foreign policy and is in the center of executive attention. This necessity is rooted in the activeness of the environment and ignoring it would lead to some irreparable damages that would endanger national security and interests. Having a clear perspective towards future events/developments is another advantage of environment analysis, which helps avoid facing unpredictable events. Central Asia region in the neighboring of Iran is a priority area for its foreign policy. Iran and the region of Central Asia are interconnected to the extent that developments in each impact the other. Therefore a systematic and scientific study on the evolutions of Central Asia is essential for the foreign policy of Iran. Using scientific methods of environment analysis in the field of strategic management, the authors attempt to find an appropriate model for environment analysis in Central Asia.  

Abstract With the end of the Cold War a new structure emerged in the international system, which was complex, but manageable. Russia, the US, and the EU cooperated together to solve their common problems. Meanwhile, some events such as NATO invasion of Kosovo (1999) and Russia- Georgia war (2008) brought about some challenges among these actors. Despite these problems, the cooperation among these old rivals had created a situation in which all parties respected the Helsinki Final Act. The Ukraine crisis damaged these relatively good relations between Russia and the West, which started with the fall of the Berlin Wall. This crisis was an end to a period of cooperation between them in which the Western countries failed to integrate Russia in its desired structures. The new crisis in addition to the creation of intense political tensions has influenced other areas of cooperation especially the trade and economic relations. The West-Russia economic war over Ukraine has emerged in the format of reciprocal sanctions. In fact, the main question of this article is that “which factors have resulted in the emergence of the crisis between Russia and the EU and what are the dimensions and consequences of the EU’s sanctions against Russia?” The hypothesis is that some factors including the NATO expansion, the EU expansion and the US and EU’s economic and political actions in the Russia’s “Near Abroad” are among the most important causes for the recent crisis between the EU and Russia. The research approach used in this article is analytic-descriptive.  

Abstract Ukraine crisis and the application of sanctions against Russia by the US and the EU as a result of this crisis is the first experience of multilateral sanctions against Russia after the Cold War. This study addresses the mechanism of sanctions against Russia. The research tries to answer the following question: What are the mechanism of sanctions against Russia? To answer this question, the following hypothesis is designed: mechanism of the sanctions that are imposed against Russia in the form of a multilateral regime, involves substantive, decision making, implementation and monitoring parts. In substantive part, two political principles are studied as the basis of multilateral sanctions against Russia: First, US efforts to maintain its hegemonic position against recreate of the Soviet Union in the form of the Eurasian Union; second, EU efforts to maintain European order against Russian’s interventionism. From a decision making perspective, decision-making institutions in the US, including the executive and the Congress have been studied. In the European Union, similarly, the role of European council and European commission are studied as well as the documents, which give the authority to make decisions on sanctions. Finally, from an executive perspective, the Department of Treasury, the Department of State, the Office of Foreign Assets Control, and the Department of Energy in the US and the European commission in European Union are scrutinized.  

Abstract After the collapse of the Soviet Union, in several phases and various ways, Russian governmental properties were surrendered to buyers. Subsequently, many individuals gained enormous economic power and thus started exercising political influence and interfering in the macro decision making of the country. After Vladimir Putin took power, these so-called oligarchs were forced to change their ways. The article starts with the question of Putin's policy toward these individuals and ends with how this policy changed the situation created by              Russia's oligarchs. The article argues that by drafting the "equal distance" law, Putin sought for restoring power in Kremlin and to reserve clear boundary with the oligarchs and the owners of large commercial firms. From this moment, the oligarchs have been dispersed to Russia's regions and districts and at the federal level have become less effective, though still more loyal than Yeltsin era.

Abstract Applying Roseau’s theory, this article seeks to assess Russian policy toward Caspian Sea. The central question of this article is which factor among deferent effective ones has had the most influence on the Russian policy toward Caspian Sea. The presumption is Russian approach toward Caspian Sea is Strategic one that the country tries to use is to come to froth its regional and international aims. The central hypothesis of the paper is international system factor is the most effective one in Russian regional policy toward Caspian Sea. Given that Russian foreign policy   has faced a Strategic transition which accounts for a transition from passive policy to active economic policy and from it to an active military and security policy.

Abstract Putin’s policies have had significant impact on Russian foreign policy after the Cold War. Despite the fact that Putin sought for increasing Russia’s power to the same level as the Cold War, however; he was aware that the nature of the international system has undergone serious changes. Therefore, some specific factors including close collaboration with the United States, an energy-oriented foreign policy and a realistic approach were taken in to consideration in Russia’s foreign policy.             After taking power and by giving a new definition on Russian national interests and adopting new policies in different poliotico-econimic, military and security areas, Putin tried to redefine Russia’s stance in the international system. Therefore, the best option for Russia was avoiding any competition and trying to allocate national sources and facilities for developments and economic reconstruction and taking an optimum not ideal share in international economy in various areas including energy, world trade and modern technologies. Close collaboration with the United States after 11 September 2001 could be regarded as the most realistic approach taken by Putin in Russian foreign policy. Putin’s return to power in 2012 could create a new trend in Russia’s foreign policy. In this article, after taking a brief review on Putin’s first presidential term, we will try to examine the prospects of Russia’s foreign policy in Putin’s new era to see whether or not there will be a change or continuity in the upcoming years.

Abstract Three republics of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania that constitute the Baltic countries that are of considerable importance for Russians, due to their special geopolitics. They are important at least in four aspects in Russian regional security policies: first, due to the large number of indigenous Russians in these republics, the region has been in the orbit of Russia's near abroad. Second, Baltic Region is the main route of energy transit from Russia to Europe, so it has also been of significant interest for Europe. Thus, Russia has sought to take away their intermediary position in the transfer of energy from the region to Europe. Third and fourth, prominent significance of the region Russians is the expansion of NATO and European Union to these countries. According to these four factors, the conceptual framework of the relationship between influence, security, and territorial continuity has initially been studied in this article. Then, it tries to study and describe Russia’s security behavior in the Baltic Region. Hence, the main question of this research is: “Howand whysecurity behavior ofRussiatowardBaltic States has been formed within 1991to 2011?” In general, this paper argues that given the territorial continuity of Baltic Region with Russia and creation of security-based interests around this country and also with considering the position of the three republics of Estonia, Lithonia, and Latvia in the scope of influence of former USSR and Russia's near abroad policy, Russian security behavior toward these republics has been a mixture of tolerance and reciprocity within 1991 to 2011. 

Abstract "Arab developments" has caused considerable political and social developments not only inside the countries engaged, but the regional and international equations as well. In the meanwhile, emphasizing on Western targeted manipulation of the developments aiming at geopolitical and security objectives for changing long-term map of the Middle East to the expense of other actors including Moscow, Russia is trying to adopt an independent position in order to prove to regional and Western countries its ability of being a balancing power against the West.             Russia’s view and its aftermath strict stance shows that despite some positive developments, yet somewhat balanced traditional views to power and its spheres of influence have still maintained their effects on Russia's external behaviors. Considering Russia's lack of objective capabilities to counter the West networking power, it seems psychological variable of being a "great power" has mostly influenced Russia's new Middle East policy towards " Arab developments".

Abstract Since 2007, the issue of soft power entered into literature of Russian foreign policy. This concept that now is being specially pursued by the Kremlin, originated from various sources and sometimes conflicting. Contrary to what Joseph Nye - soft power's theorist - presented the main sources of such a power are governmental and not civil; This article fries to find out the essence soft power in Russia and how this country has been able to apply the soft power policy in its foreign policy. Main question this article is: what is the nature of Russia's soft power and how much is success rate of this country when using this tool? This paper reviews transformations of soft power In Russia's foreign policy in two sections: first, it investigates the soft power connection with major events of commensurate with the Russia's position in international politics. Then most important elements, including the Russian language, culture and values of this country, along with other international phenomena such as virtual network connections and benefit from the wide field of higher education, will be analyzed. The article claims that despite efforts to employ soft power in Russia in recent years, its success has been limited.

Abstract Bureaucratic corruption is an ominous phenomenon with a long history in Russia and negative effects on its economic, political, social and human development. In fact, this is one of the most important barriers to development and modernization of Russia. So, the Russian government always, try to fight with this problem somewhat; But inclusiveness, complexity, diversity and the systematic nature of corruption in recent years, politicians has made Russian fight more seriously against that and pursue an anti- corruption policy in Russia. With this approach, actions have taken place, in order to fight against corruption from various administrations, but yet success in this regard cannot be seen. This article is a descriptive and analytical research based on Russian data and sources. In addition to the expressing general factors and the consequences of corruption, it explains main obstacles of fighting against corruption in the Russian Federation. Therefore the main question of this article is that “why the programs of Russian government have been ineffective in the Fight against corruption?” The hypothesis of this article is that “the power of Russia oligarchy is the main barrier preventing the effectiveness of the anti-corruption programs of Russian government”.

Abstract After the Cold War, relationships among the European countries and Russia entered into a new phase. Despite the rise in of interactions between Brussels and Moscow through cooperation agreements, 1994 Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, Energy Roadmap 2050, and other partnerships in such regards as fighting against terrorism and WMDs, these two actors are in wide divergences and rivalries in some areas. Although economic significance of Russia for Europe has been on the rise during recent years, there have been major vicissitudes in political relations. In its new presidency period of Putin, Russia has been making fresh attempts to gain its previous position. In many cases, however, Moscow’s interests and values are put in stark contrast with those of Europe’s. In the present study, divergence and rivalry dimensions between the EU and Russia are to be investigated. Areas like energy (in spite of interdependencies), renovation, South Caucasus, common neighborhood, and security are, as believed by the authors, confronting major disagreements.

Abstract Increasing role of energy and economy in international relations, has forced the states to find new economic resources in other parts of the world. Russia as an energy superpower in the world is trying to revive the authority of the Soviet era. Extension of influence in the former Soviet Union Republics is one of the major tools for Russia to implement this goal. Huge resources of energy in Central Asia, has persuaded Russia to be active in this region. For this purpose, Russia has promoted its political and economic relations with Central Asian states to become a great power in the "New Abroad" region. Russia is trying to maintain its supremacy in the world energy markets by controlling region's energy. Russia has tried to holds Central Asian Republics in the sphere of its influence through increasing control over the region's energy resources, deployment of its forces in Central Asia and creating of regional organizations. Russia wants weak Central Asian republics in terms of defense and economy and through that policy maintains its dominance on these countries. The main question is "whether Russia can maintain its influence in Central Asia? Our hypothesis is that considering the importance of energy which is on the rise within international economies and in creasing presence of other powers in Central Asia ,a tight competition is forged in the region that can Russia’s dominance and in flounce in Central Asia.

Abstract Geographical proximity of Russia and the EU, Moscow’s political, security and economic influence, Russia-EU high trade turnover and sensitive sphere of energy have made inevitable the cooperation and partnership between the EU and Russia. Although Russia is an extremely sophisticated partner for the EU, improving interaction between the two sides is possible and dependent on merging of their political aims on strategic issues including to ensure energy supply security. Energy security is one of the most controversial issues among the Eu - Russia negotiation and cooperation. Since the 1960s, the energy variable has played a vital role, in a way that the formal and informal relations between Russia and European countries have experienced increasing growth. This paper maintains that promoting relations between Russia and the EU would excessively depend on their mutual energy cooperation. Therefore, redefining Russia-EU energy relations and principal goals of Russian energy policy towards EU and vice versa are of considerable importance. From this point of view, the different degree of interdependence in the Russia-EU energy relations, diversified interests and the both sides’ aims in energy policy-making have had a negative impact on the bilateral relations in this strategic area.

Abstract US-Russia relations have been a function of widespread international considerations, having roots in the history of their foreign relations. At the end of the Cold War, the concept and nature of the relations between these two superpowers changed from a level of two equal superpowers toward to Hyper-Power and Great Power. This is done while yet Issues and implications of bilateral affected by perspectives of the Cold War, and as a result of this mentality and existing realities regarding different capabilities of the two sides, interactive approaches of the post-cold war affected by combining   old strategies and new methods of diplomacy. In this article attempts are made to analyze their mutual perception toward one another using the paradigm of the defensive realism and balance of threat as the fundamental principle of this approach. Also in this article, competition and cooperation are being considered based on negotiation and conflict of interest.

Abstract In many texts of international relations, the concept of security is generally considered as the ability to counter the threats of armed attacks. Meanwhile, the scarcity of energy sources has been among the most significant causes of conflicts in the 20^th century. Countries have their own and of course different definitions and perceptions of energy security. For example, in developed countries energy security is defined based on the accessibility and sufficient supply with proper and reasonable prices, while exporting countries regard energy security as the security of demand and an increase of energy prices. In this article, focusing on energy security as our theoretical framework, we will examine the EU-Russian relations in the energy area. Although as an energy exporting country Russia has the upper hand before the EU, which is heavily dependent on importing energy, both sides’ perceptions of energy security have shown that these two actors are dependent on each other at the same level. This type of reliance has created a situation in which they are to have close politico-economic relations.

Abstract In recent years, relations between the Russia Federation and the south littoral states have experienced some developments. While Russia is continuing its main role in the area, the role of other regional and international actors, such as United States and NATO is increasingly challenging the Russian interests in its vital backyard, the Near Abroad, as called by Russians. To face these challenges and secure its national security and vital interests, Russia is trying to find an effective and less expensive solution. Considering the new conditions of the region, wherein Moscow is unable to discard all rivals from the Central Asia and especially Caucasus political arena, Russian policy and effectiveness has directed and seems to be continued toward not letting its rival strategies achieve their expected results. Russia is also trying to utilize from its privileged economic, political, military situation in the region to control foreign policy behavior of the Caucuses republics in order to eliminate those factors that are in Russian view contradicting with its national security and interests. In this way Russia hopes preventing or delaying the region in its integration with the West political and security structures.

Abstract Republic of Chechnya in southern Russia, north Caucasus and in the tense borders between Dagestan and Republic of Azerbaijan, in the past 18 years was perhaps the most important territorial problem whose fate is tied with other republics of the Russian Federation. Hence, the resolve or not of the Chechnyan problem and the Russian confrontation with is a model for other Russia's Muslim republics to follow in the future. The problem between Chechnya and Russia is not only an agenda of the recent decades or even past century, but an historical one since the Tsarist period as well. In this article, after a review on the history of mainly tense relations between the two, interrelations between Russia and Chechnya in the post Soviet era is also investigated. The causes and grounds for tension between the two and Russian officials' positions in this regard have also been debated. The question posed here is the supply source of violence in Chechnya and the role of Russian government in it. The article's hypothesis is that the violence in Chechnya arouses on the one hand from the Russian approach to Chechnya and on the other hand from Chechens ancient history and territory deeply rooted in perpetual ethno-tribal conflicts with every centralized government.

Abstract Energy security is generally defined as to the availability of adequate and reliable supply of energy to meet the demand and is of issues linked directly to the governments and the political units. Having considerable reserves of energy and privileged geopolitical situation (neighboring the two oil-rich Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea regions), Iran has always drown the regional as well as international powers' attention.             Iran's situation in oil and gas production and their transportation in a relatively stable Persian Gulf have always been acknowledged by all actors, but this role in the Caspian Sea requires more attention within the Iranian decision-makers due to severe and rapid changes after the Soviet collapse. In addition to serious attempts in reaching consensus on the Caspian Sea legal regime based on our national interests, extensive ties with the Caspian Sea littoral states, especially the Russian Federation and the Republics of Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan should not be neglected.           This article is attempting to discuss different aspects of energy security, Iran's stand, current and under construction transportation routes and the policies pursued by international and regional powers.