‍Central Asia and The Caucasus Journal

Abstract Abstract: The " Belt and Road" initiative, designed and implemented in 2013 as one of the largest economic projects, was proposed with the aim of strengthening China's position as a global power in the economic, trade, and political spheres. Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic of Iran is known as one of the key nodes of this plan due to its strategic location in the North-South and East-West transportation corridors, as well as its rich energy resources. The purpose of this research is to examine the opportunities and challenges of the " Belt and Road" initiative for Iran's political economy. The results indicate that this initiative can strengthen Iran's geopolitical position in the region, while developing key Iranian infrastructure, including transportation and energy, attracting foreign direct investment, and strengthening economic relations with countries along the path of the plan. But on the other hand, greater economic and political dependence on China, increased imports of Chinese goods, lack of transparency in investments, and problems resulting from international sanctions are among the challenges that Iran will face in dealing with this plan.

Abstract China's "One Belt, One Road" Initiative and Iran's Political Economy (2013-2021)

Abstract: The "One Belt, One Road" initiative, designed and implemented in 2013 as one of the largest economic projects, was proposed with the aim of strengthening China's position as a global power in the economic, trade, and political spheres. Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic of Iran is known as one of the key nodes of this plan due to its strategic location in the North-South and East-West transportation corridors, as well as its rich energy resources. The purpose of this research is to examine the opportunities and challenges of the "One Belt, One Road" initiative for Iran's political economy. The results indicate that this initiative can strengthen Iran's geopolitical position in the region, while developing key Iranian infrastructure, including transportation and energy, attracting foreign direct investment, and strengthening economic relations with countries along the path of the plan. But on the other hand, greater economic and political dependence on China, increased imports of Chinese goods, lack of transparency in investments, and problems resulting from international sanctions are among the challenges that Iran will face in dealing with this plan.

Abstract Transboundary rivers—the Irtysh and the Ili—constitute vital sources of drinking water, irrigation, and energy production for Kazakhstan. Their upstream origins in China confer distinct hydropolitical and geopolitical significance. This study investigates Kazakhstan’s hydropolitical challenges and water security concerns in its interactions with China, analyzing the factors that undermine the sustainable management of shared water resources. The central research question is: “How do Kazakhstan’s dependence on China’s upstream water flows and the absence of a binding institutional framework affect the country’s water, economic, and environmental security?”The study’s hypothesis posits that: “The lack of a binding institutional mechanism, combined with China’s control over upstream water resources, intensifies hydropolitical tensions and threatens Kazakhstan’s water, economic, and environmental security.” The findings indicate that China, through its geographical leverage, material capabilities, economic bargaining power, influence, has reduced water inflows to Kazakhstan and consolidated its hydropolitical hegemony. This dynamic heightens Kazakhstan’s vulnerability in water resource management, diminishes water security, and jeopardizes environmentally and economically sustainable development. It also discourages the raising of sensitive issues—such as limits on water extraction—to avoid jeopardizing China’s regional investments. The results further underscore that establishing institutional mechanisms, strengthening transboundary water diplomacy, and adopting multidimensional approaches to water resource management can mitigate the risks posed by upstream hegemony and enhance Kazakhstan’s security and sustainable development.

Abstract The Middle East has been of considerable importance in the strategy of international powers and plays an important role since the past. China and Russia, as two major international powers, are trying to create a multipolar order, and the Middle East is known as one of their strategic arenas of confrontation and cooperation. Their common goal is to expand their influence by actively shaping regional political and security dynamics to challenge the hegemony of the West and the United States. The present study, by applying a game theoretical framework and employing an explanatory method, seeks to answer the question of what is the strategy of China and Russia in the Middle East? The findings show that since strategies are a function of the tools and mental perceptions of the actors and the existing realities, the two countries are seeking a balanced presence based on defined interests in a division of labor. China's economic strategy is long-term, pragmatic, opportunistic, and flexible, which results in maintaining good relations with all state actors and avoiding challenging the interests of the United States as the main guarantor of stability and security in the region. Russia's military and defense strategy is aimed at pursuing interests, political and military support for certain countries, controlled arms sales, maintaining regional stability, and countering terrorist groups. On the other hand, some of their interests overlap, and both maintain frequent diplomatic and political contacts throughout the region.

Abstract This study examines China’s approach toward the Taliban government in Afghanistan, aiming to analyze the challenges, opportunities, and strategic interests that shape Beijing’s stance on recognizing the Taliban. Drawing on Graham Allison’s Rational Actor Model, the Chinese state is conceptualized as a rational actor seeking to maximize its national interests in a complex and high-risk environment. The findings indicate that despite security threats posed by extremist groups such as the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), China is actively seeking to exploit the economic and geopolitical opportunities emerging in Afghanistan. In this context, Beijing has deliberately avoided granting official recognition to the Taliban and has instead adopted a de facto recognition strategy—a cautious and flexible approach. This strategy minimizes political and security risks while laying the groundwork for potential future diplomatic and economic engagement. Ultimately, the research addresses the core question: How do China’s strategic interests influence its approach to recognizing the Taliban? China’s strategic calculations—centered on border security, countering extremism, accessing natural resources, and advancing the Belt and Road Initiative—have directly shaped its decision to adopt de facto recognition of the Taliban regime. This explains how Beijing’s strategic interests have influenced its policy choices toward the Taliban and resulted in both opportunities and challenges within the realm of Chinese foreign policy and regional security.

Abstract This article traces India and China's rivalry in the Indo-Pacific as a newly emerging pivot region. These recent developments, which have been extremely violent and include military conflicts with casualties, have greatly damaged bilateral relations. While examining the reasons for the fall of bilateral relations to the lowest level, this article answers the question of how the Indo-Pacific structure has placed India and China in a competitive relationship with each other. The hypothesis of the article is that apart from specific bilateral disputes, Sino-Indian relations have been affected by global and regional developments. The increase in tension between the United States of America and China, and the evolution of the Indo-Pacific structure are among the reasons that have increased the distance and mistrust between the two countries. China's efforts in the fight for strategic areas, China's increasing influence in India's neighboring countries and the Belt and Road Initiative on the one hand, and India's actions in the form of establishing strategic alliances, the quadrilateral security dialogue and the Look East policy on the other hand, on the neighboring countries. It has been influential and has forced them to make complex choices in the field of political-security interactions and commercial-economic development.

Abstract Today, the role of emerging powers in the Middle East is very important in the framework of global politics and influence in the region. China and Russia, as two countries with unique capabilities in the field of politics and economy, have been able to strengthen their influence in this region. This research examines the new strategic policies of these two powers in the Middle East. The main question of this research is as follows; What strategies have Russia and China used to increase and strengthen their influence in the Middle East? Which one has been more successful? The hypothesis of the research is that Russia and China by focusing on three main strategies namely; Strengthening and developing economic relations, seeking regional leadership through increasing political presence and influence and positive image of themselves in the region are trying to increase their influence and influence in the Middle East. This research tries to investigate this issue with descriptive analytical method and using library sources.

Abstract Relations between China and Iran have varied significantly throughout history. This study concentrates on two distinct historical periods—the early 15th century (Ming Dynasty) and the early 21st century (Xi Jinping era)—to investigate the primary drivers that compelled these two influential Chinese governments to focus strategically on the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Employing a descriptive-analytical methodology that draws upon historical and contemporary sources, the study tests the hypothesis that the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz constitute a pivotal region for the success of global power strategies. The findings suggest that the Ming Dynasty, particularly during the voyages of Zheng He, sought to enhance its influence over international trade routes by leveraging the region's commercial and strategic significance. Correspondingly, the contemporary administration under Xi Jinping, in pursuing its global initiatives, recognizes the enduring geopolitical and economic importance of this region, especially for energy security and access to Persian Gulf oil.

Abstract The intensification of recent global trends—including the war in Ukraine, growing US-China competition, and heightened geopolitical rivalry—has fueled speculation about shifts in the international order, with a particular focus on Eurasia. In recent years, Russia and China have made concerted efforts to reshape the security architecture of Eurasia. This study addresses the central question: What are the nature and characteristics of the regional security order that Russia and China envision for the region? The study argues that Russia and China seek to establish a regional security order based on integration. This envisioned order is explicitly anti-hegemonic and founded on principles such as the distribution of power and responsibility, equality, respect for sovereignty, and, critically, the indivisibility of security. This research employs a qualitative, descriptive-analytical methodology, evaluating the hypothesis through the analysis of official documents, policy statements, and scholarly literature.

Abstract One of the most central issues that has attracted the attention of all analysts of the international system from the perspective of strategic studies is how China plans and plays a role in the strategic regions of the international system to advance its international interests using the resources and considerations it has. The question is, what parameters will affect China's foreign policy strategy towards the countries of the Central Asian region? It seems that China, by taking advantage of the opportunities that have arisen in the Central Asian region and by increasing its influence and economic, security-political cooperation in line with the construction of a multipolar hegemonic system in the international system, has moved (inclined) towards regional and regional balancing. The above research is of an applied type and has been analyzed and compiled with a qualitative method and a descriptive-analytical approach and in a library manner. The purpose of this research is to identify China's capacities and capabilities in the Central Asian region. The findings of the present study show that, in the new millennium, China, taking advantage of its special international position (status and position), and in order to advance its goals and interests, should take advantage of the opportunities that have emerged and try to move in the Central Asian region by creating regional balance and adopting a new regionalism strategy. ,

Abstract The Caspian region's strategic investment potential, energy reserves, and geo-economic significance have garnered attention from both regional and global powers. Among these, China, a trans-regional force, has displayed a keen interest in the region, employing a strategic blend of economic and energy diplomacy. By prioritizing the implementation of the One Belt - One Road initiative for investments and application, and subsequently emphasizing energy diplomacy, China has sought to bolster its economic diplomacy in the Caspian region. This article delves into China's economic diplomacy approach in the Caspian region, particularly concentrating on Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan. Employing a mixed-methods research approach encompassing both qualitative and quantitative analysis, this study examines the pivotal success factors underpinning China's diplomatic efforts in the region. The investigation reveals that China's economic diplomacy hinges on the One Belt - One Road initiative, with energy diplomacy integral to its execution. Notably, the foundation of China's successful diplomatic model lies in the cultivation of mutual trust and the pursuit of mutually beneficial outcomes.                                                        

Abstract Today, China has become the largest foreign player in its sensitive periphery, Central Asia. Beijing leaders, especially since the beginning of the new century, have tried to gradually increase their presence and influence in this region compared to other competitors such as Russia and the United States by announcing numerous economic, security, and political initiatives and programs. This increase in presence has been done in a gradual and multi-faceted manner according to the usual Chinese tradition, and therefore a direct link can be established between the foreign aid program of this country to the region and the development of its presence and influence. In this regard, the main question of the article, using the descriptive and explanatory method, is how China has benefited from foreign aid in the years 2000 to 2022 to advance its national interests in Central Asia. In response to this hypothesis, it is proposed that the Chinese government uses its foreign aid program in this region to advance economic goals (linking the economies of the countries in the region with their economic and commercial needs), security goals (shaping their desired security order and fighting Uighurs separatism) and political goals (expanding its influence and position in the countries of the region). The findings of the article emphasize the explanatory role of foreign aid in explaining China's policies and goals in the peripheral area of Central Asia, which has received little attention from experts.

Abstract In 2021, with the withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan, the Taliban returned to power after nearly twenty years. The return of the Taliban has had various geopolitical, social, political, and economic effects on Afghanistan and the region. This article is dedicated to answering a crucial question: what effects has the Taliban's rise to power had on Afghanistan's economy? It collects and categorizes library resources analyses previously written in this field and analyzes Afghanistan's economic data during the Taliban era. The central hypothesis is based on the premise that the Taliban's return to the political scene in Afghanistan has had negative effects on the country's internal economic indicators and the welfare level of its people, leading to the creation of recession, poverty, and unemployment. However, from a regional economic perspective, the Taliban has managed to maintain its trade levels by exporting agricultural products and raw materials. Although the Taliban has not successfully reduced unemployment, alleviated poverty, decreased recession, or increased production and business within Afghanistan, it has managed to maintain its trade relations with neighboring countries compared to the republic era.

Abstract Afghanistan has an important position for the countries of the region, including China, in terms of having rich natural resources and having an important transit position as a link between regions such as Central Asia, South Asia, and West Asia. With the Taliban once again dominating Afghanistan, China's relations with this group have entered a new stage, and Afghanistan is still the focus of China's foreign policy. In this regard, this research aims to examine the trends governing China's political economy and its impact on the country's foreign policy towards the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. Therefore, this research tries to use the qualitative method and sample research method to address the basic question of how China's political economy has directed the country's foreign policy towards the Taliban. In response to this hypothesis, China's political economy, with its neo-mercantilist approach and centralized capitalism, has directed the foreign policy of this country to serve the economic interests and access to Afghanistan's natural resources in interaction with the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The findings of the research show that the upward trend of China's industrial growth requires natural resources for the consumption of domestic industries. In addition, natural reserves are considered essential for the continuation of China's economic growth. Therefore, the necessity of controlling foreign natural resources and transit situations has been inevitable for China's economic development. In the meantime, Afghanistan, with its natural reserves and convenient transit location, can play a strategic role in China's economic interests.

Abstract China's growing need for global energy resources has made this country pay special attention to the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf and the world's largest energy producers. In this regard, the representation of a positive image of Beijing in the eyes of rulers and Arab societies is one of the requirements for the expansion of political, economic, and social relations. This issue can strengthen Beijing's influence and position in the Middle East. On the other hand, Arab politicians, to maintain their legitimacy and present a positive image of Arab countries as developing advanced, and prosperous nations, need to attract large investments from powerful countries such as China in the field of digital infrastructures and social media platforms. This research aims to answer the question of what effect China's digital diplomacy towards Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has had on the development process of this country's relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE and whether this diplomacy has improved the relations between these two countries with China or not. The results of this study suggest that with the beginning of China's focus on the need to enter the Middle East to take advantage of investment opportunities and huge resources, and China's understanding of this to present a positive and peaceful image of itself by using digital diplomacy to expand its influence in this region, China's relations with the mentioned countries have expanded significantly. These relations have been progressing despite the stonewalling of the West and the United States. This is largely due to China's digital diplomacy. The present paper is a descriptive analysis using the documentary and library resources. .

Abstract One of the waters that cross international borders is the Ili River, which originates from the Tian-Shan Mountains in Xinjiang and flows into Balkhash Lake in eastern Kazakhstan. Ili, a transboundary river, provides about 70 percent of the water input to Lake Balkhash in Kazakhstan. Currently, there are growing concerns about the future of this lake. However, very few studies have been done in this field. Following such a research gap, this article uses a descriptive-analytic research method to answer this question: "What environmental and geopolitical threats does Lake Balkhash face?". The research findings show that climate change, competition over water extraction, Kazakhstan's economic plans and water policies, the lack of a joint comprehensive agreement, and China's development plans in the form of the Belt and Road Initiative have had destructive physical effects on Lake Balkhash and asymmetry relations between Kazakhstan and China has also hindered successful negotiations in this field.

Abstract Changes in the international distribution of power create an incentive for strategic changes. With the emergence of emerging powers, international institutions are under pressure to adapt to the new realities of power. Based on the satisfaction of changing actors in power, as well as the hard and soft nature of power transformations, the strategic adaptation of actors takes the nature of power bargaining, strategic partnership, or strategic persuasion. This research tries to examine China's strategies in the Middle East region. To achieve this goal, the research explains China's strategies in the Middle East region with the assumption of power changes and their effect on the actors' strategies. The main hypothesis of the article is that China has adopted a strategy of creative adaptation in the regions with the experience of transformation in its power due to the reformist approach and having hard and soft power, and the Middle East is one of the regions that is in its strategic circle. Therefore, it seems that China's approach in the Middle East region is creative adaptation. On this basis, tries to avoid entering into controversial issues and trying to be active and adaptive in the region with innovative plans such as the Belt and Road and investing in different places.

Abstract Central Asia is considerably important in China’s foreign policy because of its geographical proximity. Ensuring regional security, combating terrorism, and procuring part of energy needs would not be possible without cooperating with Central Asian countries.  By incrementing trade, investing in infrastructure projects, and providing development assistance, China pursues its foreign policy objectives in the region and encourages its neighbors to keep their distance from the United States and other Western countries.  Chinese aid to Central Asia has succeeded those of other donor countries; however, the context and purposes have been rather different. China considers itself a developing country and claims to know the developmental needs and requirements of such countries, avoiding in this way interfering in their internal affairs with the pretext of offering them aid. This research aims to respond to the question “What objectives does China pursue by offering development assistance to developing countries and what would be the implications it might have in Central Asian countries?” The response unveils the changes that China, by appealing to their aid, may have attempted to induce in Central Asia from 2000 to 2020. The findings of the investigation indicate that The PRC, striving to lock the core processes of production within its borders, has merely focused on devoting status-quo aids to the developing countries in the two sectors of infrastructure and energy, contrary to other donors’ aid-seeking to essentially alter the recipient's status-quo institutions. In theory, China, strategically complying with the two principles of respect for the recipient's sovereignty and mutual economic benefits, is not interested in disturbing the status quo. But in practice, the approach is rather different.

Abstract The Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022 caused changes in the international system and blackened the balance of power prospects, especially in a region like Central Asia where Russia has a strong role and influence. Factors such as Russia's military conflict in Ukraine, and this country's focus on its ability to disrupt equations in its favor, which subsequently causes changes in its national and foreign policies, open paths for new questions. Such as whether the war in Ukraine and its consequences have caused Russia's role to diminish, or we can even say Russia's hegemony (especially from a security point of view) in Central Asia? In this case, is China, another influential and powerful actor in the region, going to fill the vacuum of Russian influence? Or will the countries of the region take advantage of the opportunity this time and highlight other regional actors such as India, Turkey, Iran, or trans regional actors such as the European Union in their foreign policy? In order to answer these questions, this research has tried to investigate the variables of China and Russia's sources of power and influence in Central Asia, and their changes after the Ukraine war. After evaluating the prospects of challenges and the opportunities created by this war for the influence of China and Russia in this region will provide scenarios for the future situation in Central Asia and the influential actors in the region.

Abstract The New Silk Road as the most ambitious macro-project in the current time is the sign and symbol of China’s power projection beyond its borders. Two lanes of the six lanes of the land belt of the New Silk Road go through the Russian territory. Also, Europe will be the main terminal of the land and sea routes of this grand project. Furthermore, China’s relations with Russia and Europe will involve potential tensions with huge consequences for the balance of power and global economy. From this perspective, the main issue is some sort of divergence and convergence of these three big powers along the Silk Road’s Eurasian land route. What are the divergence and convergence factors in China’s relations with Russia and Europe along the New Silk Road? The thesis is premised on the fact that the Polar Silk Road lays the ground for convergence, and the one going through Central Asia diverges Moscow and Beijing, and on the other side, China’s projects in the Balkans cause convergence in East Europe, while bringing divergence of relations with Central and Western Europe powers. This writing shows in detail the branches and the consequences of the Icy (Polar) Silk Road. Also, it enumerates the challenges and opportunities between China and Russia, especially in Central Asia; then, it shows China’s policy-line for infiltrating into East Europe and the Balkans. The paper explores the extent and expanse of China’s tense relations with West Europe countries. The theoretical framework of the paper is progressive based on a tri-faceted and tri-spherical reading of geopolitics. Such a framework of connection of these three structures with geographical factors shows that the roots and consequences of this macro-project can be traced back to the spheres of Geopolitics, Geo-culture,   and Geo-economy as well as to the three “International”, “Regional”, and “Internal” levels. 

Abstract The China’s Belt & Road initiative, impacted the process of policy planning of the target countries. The pivotal question of this paper is how has the Belt & Road Initiative impacted Iran’s policy planning? What factors have changed Iran’s strategy towards the Belt & Road Initiative? The findings of the paper show that Iran’s pivot to East is a sign of the country’s strategy toward this initiative. This impact is evident in Iran-China Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Programme on the macro level and in transportation sector in practical level. How and why Belt & Road Initiative affected Iran’s policy-making in the 11^th and 12^th administrations within the framework of “Theory of Alliance of Interests” is analyzed in the paper. This approach describes the change of policy arising from two factors of “ external fluctuations and shocks on the policy system” , and “ learning practice of policy-makers in the process of decision-making”.

Abstract This article explains the effects of the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative on the regional level of Iran's geo-economic space. The effects of the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative on Iran's geo-economics have emerged in the form of Kazakhstan becoming a new logistics and energy hub, Pakistanappearing as China's most important partner, and turning the United Arab Emirates into a logistics hub. The findings of the article show the multiple effects of the implementation of this megaproject on the geo-economics space of Iran. On the northern side, the implementation of the East-West corridors could weaken Iran's comparative advantage as a link between Central Asian economies and the global economy, and on the other hand, create new opportunities for Iran by developing soft and hard regional integration infrastructures. On the eastern side of Iran's geo-economic space, implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative will reduce the structural barriers to Pakistan's economic development. Reducing obstacles to Pakistan's economic development will create new opportunities for Iran.

Abstract The perspective of integration and deepening cooperation among SCO members within last two decades, especially after its recent geographical extension towards South Asia, is faced with serious questions. The most long lasting bilateral disagreement in SCO is the issue about Kashmir between India and Pakistan. A divergence of Beijing and Moscow’s perception about international system and their different expectations from SCO – besides some other factors) also has led to disintegration in Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The present article tries to find an answer for the following question: what are the main internal rivalries in SCO and how will they affect its consistency and future? The author addresses the hypothesis that “the rivalry between China and Russia for determining SCO’s approach and outlines as well as the Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan are the SCO’s main challenges. The former through scattering SCO’s priorities and the latter one through weakening security and defensive relations among the members prevents the Shanghai Cooperation Organization from its future integration and improvement”.

Abstract The facts and figures as well as expert reviews of international politics prove that China is in the trend of a power rise as well as hegemony afterwards. The main issue is about the opportunities and obstacles that China will face in this trend, especially from the prism of geopolitics. The question is about the impact of geopolitics on China´s prospect hegemony. Since geopolitics is both an opportunity- maker and restrictive factor for hegemony, it would be both a trouble making and a break ahead for China. This literature not only provides a better understanding of main hindrances that China faces ahead in its power rise, but also serves as a source of explanation for understanding its regional foreign policy instruments. Trying to compose a theoretical framework for the relation between hegemony and geopolitics, the authors have studied possible symptoms of China´s prospect hegemony. China´s Belt - Road Initiative is assessed as an instrument for breaking through its geographical obstacles.

Abstract The present literature attempts to throw light on extremism in Xinxiang, its causes and strengthening factors. Furthermore the central government’s transaction and proceedings towards the citizens of that province in scrutinized. Regional and racial divergence of Xinxiang Uighurs in contrast to China’s main population, besides susceptibility from extremist and Islamist groups in Central Asia are among the causes of extremism in Xinxiang. This land is prone to instability and growing clashes between Han Chinese and indigenous Uighurs; the first one in an attempt to overwhelm, and the latter one for autonomy or dependence. Focusing on the effects of Central Asia extremism on separatism and extremism inclinations in Xinxiang, the authors try to find an answer for the following question: What strategies has China’s central government taken for containing extremism in Xinxiang? The authors argue that China’s government has taken a hybrid containment strategy. The strategy of developing China’s western regions; suppression strategy; religious control and population change are the most important internal measures taken by China’s government in economic; security; and cultural – societal sectors respectively. Strengthening economic relations with Xinxiang neighbors, investment in energy sectors in that region, Belt – Road Initiative, using potentialities of SCO, as well as designing a political – security strategy for stabilizing neighboring countries to Xinxiang, are the measures taken for the exterior dimension. Using explanatory – analytical research method, the authors try to tell why the research findings provide an answer to the research questions.