‍Central Asia and The Caucasus Journal

Abstract توافق آتش‌بس نوامبر ۲۰۲۰ میان جمهوری آذربایجان و ارمنستان در خصوص منطقه قره‌باغ، نقطه عطفی در ساختار ژئوپلیتیک قفقاز جنوبی محسوب می‌شود که مرزهای سیاسی و موازنه‌های امنیتی منطقه را بازتعریف کرده است. این توافق نه‌تنها قدرت بازیگران محلی را تغییر داد، بلکه نفوذ بازیگران فرامنطقه‌ای را نیز گسترش داد و چالش‌ها و فرصت‌های جدیدی را برای کشورهای همجوار، به‌ویژه جمهوری اسلامی ایران، ایجاد نمود. از منظر راهبردی ایران، پیامدهای این تحولات دوگانه است: از یک سو، بازگشایی مسیرهای ترانزیتی و امکان توسعه زیرساخت‌های انرژی و حمل‌ونقل، فرصت‌های اقتصادی قابل‌توجهی را فراهم ساخته و نقش ایران را به‌عنوان یک بازیگر کلیدی منطقه‌ای تقویت می‌کند؛ از سوی دیگر، تغییر موازنه‌های امنیتی و افزایش حضور نظامی و سیاسی بازیگران خارجی، تهدیدهای بالقوه‌ای برای ثبات مرزهای شمال غربی و امنیت ملی ایران ایجاد می‌کند. این پژوهش با بهره‌گیری از روش تحلیل کیفی، تحولات ژئوپلیتیک پس از توافق ۲۰۲۰ و پیامدهای آن بر منافع اقتصادی و امنیتی ایران را بررسی و ارزیابی می‌کند. یافته‌ها تأکید می‌کنند که اتخاذ سیاست‌های هوشمندانه، متوازن و چندجانبه در تعامل با بازیگران منطقه‌ای، برای حفظ و ارتقای منافع ملی ایران حیاتی است.

Abstract According to the history of European diplomacy, Russia's security hinges on its strategic influence in Central and Eastern Europe. With the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia's strategy to regain its position and security in Central and Eastern Europe raised concerns among countries in the region. In this regard, the Ukraine crisis in 2014 and the annexation of Crimea by Russia posed serious challenges to the security of the region and Europe as a whole. Consequently, countries in the region turned to forming regionalism patterns characterized by an anti-Russian stance to balance against Russia's power and influence. The Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 further aligned and synchronized anti-Russian behaviors in multilateral regional frameworks. Considering these factors, the question arises: How has anti-Russian regionalism in Central and Eastern Europe threatened Russia's national interests? The research hypothesis posits that anti-Russian regionalism in Central and Eastern Europe has threatened Russia's national interests and security through the political, military, and economic convergence of the regional countries. The research findings indicate that developing strategic relations among Central and Eastern European countries through tripartite cooperation triangles, regional organizations, and multilateral initiatives aimed at balancing against Russia has created military-security, political, and economic threats to Moscow's national interests in the region. The research method is qualitative with an analytical-explanatory approach, using the realist theory of balance of power to explain the subject.

Abstract The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is one of the longest international crises officially started on February 20, 1988. As an important and influential actor in the geopolitical region of the South Caucasus, the Republic of Azerbaijan faced the crisis caused by the occupation of lands by Armenia after gaining independence. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict later turned into an international crisis due to the intervention of some foreign powers. It is believed that Turkey's support for the Republic of Azerbaijan is an attempt to expand its sphere of influence both by increasing Baku's position in the conflict and by marginalizing the influence of Iran and Russia in the region. On the other hand, due to Iran's concern about insecurity spilling over into its northwestern borders while opposing foreign intervention in this crisis, it wants to resolve the conflict emphasizing diplomacy and direct negotiations between the parties to the conflict. The main question of the research is, what strategy do Iran and Turkeye follow regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict? The research hypothesizes that Turkeye is trying to fundamentally change the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh in Baku's favor by developing comprehensive relations with the Republic of Azerbaijan and securing its regional goals and policies. On the other hand, while opposing any change in its northern borders, Iran has adopted a policy of neutrality towards Karabagh. However, the significant change in the military balance in favor of the Republic of Azerbaijan following the 2020 war has led Tehran to withdraw from its traditional policy of neutrality and openly support the sovereignty of the Republic of Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. The qualitative analysis method was used to analyze the data of this research.

Abstract The Belt and Road Initiative was launched in 2013 by Xi Jinping. This initiative is one of the important aspects of China's foreign policy. Due to the geographical extent, extensive infrastructural dimensions and subsequent developments of this project, different countries have studied and paid special attention to it at both academic and executive levels. The study of the relations between Russia and China has always been the focus of international relations experts. In this light, the Russian Federation has also considered the Belt-Road Initiative and has followed a certain pattern of behavior in relation to it. Therefore, understanding the behavior pattern and Moscow's approach to the Belt and Road Initiative will reveal important aspects of the dynamics of mutual relations between these two countries. The present study investigates and evaluates the approach of the Russian Federation towards China's Belt and Road Initiative in the light of the macro strategy in the period of 2013-2020. Therefore, the current research seeks to answer the main question, how can the behavioral pattern of the Russian Federation be explained towards China's Belt and Road initiative in the mentioned time frame? The findings of the article show that Russia considers the Belt-Road as a project aimed at increasing China's geopolitical influence at both the international level and the Central Asia region, and by following the model of competition and cooperation for this plan, it seeks to coordinate it with the Eurasian Economic Union and prevent more influence. It is from China in Central Asia.

Abstract In the post-Soviet era, the Caspian Sea region changed the nature from a pure geographical region to a geopolitical region with vital importance for the coastal states. Considering the mutual relations among geography, politics and power in this region, the geopolitical foundations with a spectrum of constant and variable factors can influence the national security of each of the coastal states. Considering the fact that such geopolitical foundations would increase the regional states confrontation with the opportunities and challenges of the region, the main question in this article is what opportunities and challenges does the geopolitical foundations of the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran entail for this country? The hypothesis of the research is that the geopolitical foundations of the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran would bring the opportunity of convergence and co-supplementation with the Caspian coastal states from one hand, and the challenge of being impacted by the constant and variable geographical factors, from the other. This paper will adopt the descriptive-analytical method to verify the hypothesis.

Abstract As a new entity, ISIL has carried out the most violent actions under the flag of Islam and pursued the idea of forming “Welayat-i-Khorasan” in its governmental vision. According to this perspective and subsequent steps such as the announcement of the existence of ISIL raises the question of what implications the strengthening of ISIL's presence in Afghanistan will have for the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Based on the Delphi method as one of the well- known techniques in futures studies, the paper has tried to explore different aspects of the issue by taking advantage of the opinions of elites and prominent experts of Afghanistan affairs. In order to answer the above question, seventeen experts on Afghanistan issues who were selected through the Snowball sampling method answered questions about the various aspects of this issue during four Delphi rounds and out of 19 questions, 14 of them came to a consensus. The findings indicate that the strengthening of the presence of ISIL threatens the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran both domestically and internationally. Opportunities such as expansion of technical and intelligence cooperation or establishing regional and international arrangements are likely subject to do so, but are not significant in comparison to the threats posed. Also, regarding the current differences in the form and nature of ISIL's presence in Syria and Afghanistan, it seems that not only Iran cannot choose the exposure method of Syria but also must not do so.

Abstract After the collapse of the USSR and the development of new Russia, the areas that impacted directly on Russia’s security, came into a higher significance. The dominance of geopolitical discourse in Russia and a reliance on historical visions made the near abroad doctrine a priority in Russia’s foreign policy. Russia’s new security strategy also shifted from a global strategy with restrictive approach to a regional one applying an unrestrictive approach. In order to secure its security in the new era, Russia has defined three security circles which respectively are a) Russia; b) Russian Federation (Russia plus the autonomous but dependent Republics); c) near abroad (Central Asia). The present paper tries assess the role and nature of Russian – oriented institutionalism in its policy makings in Central Asia, using Volker Rittberger’s theory. The authors argue that the three cognitive, hegemonic and question oriented factors of the mentioned theory are all applied in Russian institutionalism in Central Asia, each with a different weight and effectiveness. In other words, Russia had mostly been focused on the latter two. Using explanatory - analytical methodology and library resources, the authors try to tell why the research findings provide an answer for the mentioned question.

Abstract A few years after the Newly Independent States of the former Soviet Union decided to set up Navy, the Caspian Sea is militarized growingly. In addition to the Russian Navy, which is the most powerful and experienced navy in the Sea, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan Navies are also expected to be added to the chessboard. The main question of this article is that “what would be the possible impacts of militarization of the Caspian Sea on the Iranian national security?” The article’s hypothesis is that “the militarization of the Caspian Sea would enhance the national power of some coastal states and disturb balance of power in the region temporarily and therefore, would put real military, economic as well as political challenges before Iran.    

Abstract After the evolution of the Geo-strategic discourse to a geo-economic discourse in the last decades and the superior role of economy in the global arena, the following issues are settled in an upper level of status: energy geopolitics, energy corridors and energy security.
The present article attempts to answer the following question: What has been the impact of the geo-economic position of the Caspian Sea and the energy pipelines on the interests and the security of the Islamic Republic of Iran? The hypothesis of this article is that after the collapse of the bipolar system, due to its neighborhood with this important region in the energy heartland, the Islamic Republic of Iran is considered as the best, shortest and the most convenience way for energy transfer from this region to other parts of the world.