‍Central Asia and The Caucasus Journal

Abstract The Middle East has been of considerable importance in the strategy of international powers and plays an important role since the past. China and Russia, as two major international powers, are trying to create a multipolar order, and the Middle East is known as one of their strategic arenas of confrontation and cooperation. Their common goal is to expand their influence by actively shaping regional political and security dynamics to challenge the hegemony of the West and the United States. The present study, by applying a game theoretical framework and employing an explanatory method, seeks to answer the question of what is the strategy of China and Russia in the Middle East? The findings show that since strategies are a function of the tools and mental perceptions of the actors and the existing realities, the two countries are seeking a balanced presence based on defined interests in a division of labor. China's economic strategy is long-term, pragmatic, opportunistic, and flexible, which results in maintaining good relations with all state actors and avoiding challenging the interests of the United States as the main guarantor of stability and security in the region. Russia's military and defense strategy is aimed at pursuing interests, political and military support for certain countries, controlled arms sales, maintaining regional stability, and countering terrorist groups. On the other hand, some of their interests overlap, and both maintain frequent diplomatic and political contacts throughout the region.

Abstract توافق آتش‌بس نوامبر ۲۰۲۰ میان جمهوری آذربایجان و ارمنستان در خصوص منطقه قره‌باغ، نقطه عطفی در ساختار ژئوپلیتیک قفقاز جنوبی محسوب می‌شود که مرزهای سیاسی و موازنه‌های امنیتی منطقه را بازتعریف کرده است. این توافق نه‌تنها قدرت بازیگران محلی را تغییر داد، بلکه نفوذ بازیگران فرامنطقه‌ای را نیز گسترش داد و چالش‌ها و فرصت‌های جدیدی را برای کشورهای همجوار، به‌ویژه جمهوری اسلامی ایران، ایجاد نمود. از منظر راهبردی ایران، پیامدهای این تحولات دوگانه است: از یک سو، بازگشایی مسیرهای ترانزیتی و امکان توسعه زیرساخت‌های انرژی و حمل‌ونقل، فرصت‌های اقتصادی قابل‌توجهی را فراهم ساخته و نقش ایران را به‌عنوان یک بازیگر کلیدی منطقه‌ای تقویت می‌کند؛ از سوی دیگر، تغییر موازنه‌های امنیتی و افزایش حضور نظامی و سیاسی بازیگران خارجی، تهدیدهای بالقوه‌ای برای ثبات مرزهای شمال غربی و امنیت ملی ایران ایجاد می‌کند. این پژوهش با بهره‌گیری از روش تحلیل کیفی، تحولات ژئوپلیتیک پس از توافق ۲۰۲۰ و پیامدهای آن بر منافع اقتصادی و امنیتی ایران را بررسی و ارزیابی می‌کند. یافته‌ها تأکید می‌کنند که اتخاذ سیاست‌های هوشمندانه، متوازن و چندجانبه در تعامل با بازیگران منطقه‌ای، برای حفظ و ارتقای منافع ملی ایران حیاتی است.

Abstract According to Russia's membership in the “UN Security Council”, nuclear power, proximity and involvement in a wide arena of the world’s geography (Japan, China, Central Asia, the Middle East, the Black Sea, East Europe to the Baltic region), as well as the possibility of military support and reinforcement of different groups and governments; the influence of Russia’s remoteness and proximity in various parts of the world, especially in the “South Caucasus”, is still undeniable. A series of security and strategic interests (in relation to Armenia and Georgia), as well as economic interests (mainly relevant to Azerbaijan) have made “South Caucasus” important for Russia; thus, in expanding the relations, “Eurasia region” has been the priority of the country in all foreign policy documents until 2016. The main objective of this article is, to respond to this question: How Russia has turned into a security activist in the “South Caucasus”? The hypothesis, which is raised in response to this main question, is as follows: A series of strategic, security, military, economic and energy resources have turned Russia into a security activist in the South Caucasus. In this article, it is tried to answer to the main question through studying Russia’s foreign policy documents and then different approaches of the country; as well as studying its interests in various fields by a descriptive – explanatory method.