‍Central Asia and The Caucasus Journal

Abstract Changes in the international distribution of power create an incentive for strategic changes. With the emergence of emerging powers, international institutions are under pressure to adapt to the new realities of power. Based on the satisfaction of changing actors in power, as well as the hard and soft nature of power transformations, the strategic adaptation of actors takes the nature of power bargaining, strategic partnership, or strategic persuasion. This research tries to examine China's strategies in the Middle East region. To achieve this goal, the research explains China's strategies in the Middle East region with the assumption of power changes and their effect on the actors' strategies. The main hypothesis of the article is that China has adopted a strategy of creative adaptation in the regions with the experience of transformation in its power due to the reformist approach and having hard and soft power, and the Middle East is one of the regions that is in its strategic circle. Therefore, it seems that China's approach in the Middle East region is creative adaptation. On this basis, tries to avoid entering into controversial issues and trying to be active and adaptive in the region with innovative plans such as the Belt and Road and investing in different places.

Abstract After twenty years, the Taliban regained power for the second time in 2021. The Islamic Emirate must inevitably engage with regional organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to sustain its governance. Central Asian countries, which are gathered under the umbrella of the SCO, have an influential role in the political developments of Afghanistan. The main question is what impact does the security interaction between the Taliban and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization have on the economy and politics of the Taliban government? The research hypothesis is that the security interaction between the Taliban and the (SCO), through the fight against ISIS as a regional consensus, leads to security, political, and economic convergence between the Taliban and the organization. The findings indicate that the anti-ISIS policy of the Taliban and their fight against drug trafficking provide a basis for security cooperation with the organization. Moreover, the political alignment with China and Russia, who are among the main actors of the organization, stands the Taliban in the anti-unilateralism camp against the United States. The present research has utilized the explanatory method and library-based data collection approach.

Abstract Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 not only damaged Ukraine’s economy but also put so much pressure on Russia and European countries in gas trade due to the loss of big trade partners. This article aims to answer two main questions: 1- What are the impacts of Russia and Ukraine’s war on the United States and the European Union in the energy area? 2-Does it impact the position of Iran in the energy part in global markets? This research has been done based on the narrative review approach. The findings show the gradual loss of former position in global markets for Ukraine, Russia, and the European Union and the increasing dependency of European countries on the United States in the energy area. If European countries avoid cooperating with huge oil and gas resource-owning countries like Iran, besides aggravating their dependency on the United States, they deprive themselves of cheaper energy resources.

Abstract The security order in Central Asia has undergone a stable process in the transition to new conditions during the last decade. Two catalysts after 2021 have accelerated this process. First, the withdrawal of International forces from Afghanistan, which led to the fall of the government in this country and the rise to power and stabilization of the presence of the Taliban; And second, Russia's military invasion of Ukraine, which increased the tension between the great powers at the international level and created a situation that is interpreted as a new cold war in Russia's peripheral area. These conditions led to forming the security order governing Central Asia in new conditions. In such a situation, this paper seeks to answer this key question: how will the new security order of Central Asia after 2021 affect the security interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran? The hypothesis that is raised in response to this question is based on the proposition that these conditions, by intensifying the security situation of the great power, have caused a decrease in the security factor in Iran's peripheral environment. Strengthening the flow of multilateralism and strengthening expansive approaches in the new security order, implies opportunities. In this paper, I try to prove the hypothesis through the exploration method to discover systematic patterns in Central Asia's security dynamics. The Copenhagen school is considered as the conceptual framework of this research in the comparative approach.

Abstract Central Asia is considerably important in China’s foreign policy because of its geographical proximity. Ensuring regional security, combating terrorism, and procuring part of energy needs would not be possible without cooperating with Central Asian countries.  By incrementing trade, investing in infrastructure projects, and providing development assistance, China pursues its foreign policy objectives in the region and encourages its neighbors to keep their distance from the United States and other Western countries.  Chinese aid to Central Asia has succeeded those of other donor countries; however, the context and purposes have been rather different. China considers itself a developing country and claims to know the developmental needs and requirements of such countries, avoiding in this way interfering in their internal affairs with the pretext of offering them aid. This research aims to respond to the question “What objectives does China pursue by offering development assistance to developing countries and what would be the implications it might have in Central Asian countries?” The response unveils the changes that China, by appealing to their aid, may have attempted to induce in Central Asia from 2000 to 2020. The findings of the investigation indicate that The PRC, striving to lock the core processes of production within its borders, has merely focused on devoting status-quo aids to the developing countries in the two sectors of infrastructure and energy, contrary to other donors’ aid-seeking to essentially alter the recipient's status-quo institutions. In theory, China, strategically complying with the two principles of respect for the recipient's sovereignty and mutual economic benefits, is not interested in disturbing the status quo. But in practice, the approach is rather different.

Abstract One of the consequences of global climate change is the water shortage crisis and the resulting disputes among the beneficiary governments. The criticality of the world's climatic situation has led to the emergence of disputes between governments in connection with the division of common waters.  In this article, by utilizing the descriptive-analytical method and collecting data and information by document-library method, we are going to respond to the following question: "Which are the factors influencing the formation and escalation of disputes caused by the division of water in border-rivers between the Islamic Republic of Iran and its neighbors”? The hypothesis presented in response to the question raised above is based on the premise that in addition to the obvious role of the “water scarcity” phenomenon in the occurrence of the disputes above, it is necessary that four other variables; the politics of transboundary powers, management of water resources, ideological gap and instability of states, also be investigated and analyzed by the political elites. The variables mentioned above are divided into two groups: internal (Instability of States and Water Resources Management) and external (Cross-Border Powers’ politics and Ideological Gap). It is necessary to remember that the explanation of the mentioned four variables does not necessarily mean the absence of other factors in the discussed framework. It is possible that in the context of future research in this field, some other new variables will be identified.  

Abstract One of the consequences of global climate change is the water shortage crisis and the resulting disputes among the beneficiary governments. The criticality of the world's climatic situation has led to the emergence of disputes between governments in connection with the division of common waters.  In this article, by utilizing the descriptive-analytical method and collecting data and information by document-library method, we are going to respond to the following question: "Which are the factors influencing the formation and escalation of disputes caused by the division of water in border-rivers between the Islamic Republic of Iran and its neighbors”? The hypothesis presented in response to the question raised above is based on the premise that in addition to the obvious role of the “water scarcity” phenomenon in the occurrence of the disputes above, it is necessary that four other variables; the politics of transboundary powers, management of water resources, ideological gap and instability of states, also be investigated and analyzed by the political elites. The variables mentioned above are divided into two groups: internal (Instability of States and Water Resources Management) and external (Cross-Border Powers’ politics and Ideological Gap). It is necessary to remember that the explanation of the mentioned four variables does not necessarily mean the absence of other factors in the discussed framework. It is possible that in the context of future research in this field, some other new variables will be identified.

Abstract Ardabil region, as one of the carpet-weaving regions of Iran, has been connected with the Republic of Azerbaijan from the point of view of cultural geography. In the past, the Republic of Azerbaijan was a part of Iran. According to the Treaty of Turkmen Chai and Golestan, during the reign of FathAli Shah Qajar, the territory of the Caucasus was handed over to Tsarist Russia. For this reason, many handwoven motifs have interacted and exchanged with each other over time. Among the objectives of the research, while examining the common motifs in Ardabil and Azerbaijan carpets, explaining the characteristics of the motifs in the carpet, and comparing these works of art. The main question of the current research is, considering the proximity and cultural connections of Ardabil with the Republic of Azerbaijan, what effect has it had on the structure of the design and motif of the carpet during the last one hundred years? In this way, this research was conducted using documentary sources and related articles in a comparative-analytical method based on explanation and of the isolation type, and it was analyzed by qualitative analysis method. The findings of the research, according to the studies, show that the carpet weaving industry in Ardabil peaked during the Safavid era, and until today, when it was separated from East Azerbaijan province, it has preserved the originality of its design and motif. According to the selection of samples in the carpets of the Ardabil region and the regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan (Shirvan, Quba, Kazakh, and Lankaran) In terms of structure and form in the design and most of the motifs shown as bergamot in the carpet, it is similar. The differences are mostly seen in the small motifs, color, motifs and the number of borders that these similarities are the result of cultural roots and the differences are derived from the stylistic characteristics of each region that have been separated from each other over time and distance.

Abstract The Russia-Ukraine war began on February 25, 2022, after months of tension and the presence of Russian military forces on the border of Ukraine, with the order of the Russian president's all-out military attack. Putin's justifications for the military attack on "special military operations" in Donbas and the non-occupation of Ukraine by Russia were based on humanitarian intervention due to the commission of the crime of genocide by the Ukrainian government in the east of this country. But Putin's most important justification is based on individual legitimate defense in advance due to imminent threats from Ukraine and NATO, and collective legitimate defense in support of the self-proclaimed states of the Donbas region, which Russia previously recognized as independent states. Had been recognized and a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance was established with the leaders of Donetsk and Luhansk. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to examine the war between Russia and Ukraine from the perspective of the right to resort to force. Therefore, this research seeks to answer the question: Are Russian legal arguments for resorting to force justified from the point of view of international law? is The research method of this article is descriptive-analytical and the method of collecting information is library-reference. The findings of the research indicate that Russia violates the rules of international law and the right to territorial integrity and political independence of Ukraine, and Russia's reasons for legitimizing military aggression against Ukraine are not justified.

Abstract Economic relations between Iran and Eurasian Economic Union member states in recent years have been affected by factors such as international sanctions, lack of complementary economic relations, dependence of Iran and Eurasian Economic Union members on raw material and energy sales, and geoeconomic competition. The re-imposition of US sanctions following the withdrawal of the Trump administration from the UN Security Council and the imposition of economic restrictions, especially on international trade, has expanded Iran's view of developing economic ties with its neighbors.In this context, the Eurasian Economic Union has a good capacity to expand bilateral relations, especially in the face of sanctions, due to the low volume of economic relations with the United States and the dominance of Russian institutions over the union.The Islamic Republic of Iran seeks to offset US sanctions restrictions by concluding a preferential trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union. The main question of the present article is that what opportunities does the preferential trade agreement between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union face for the Iranian economy in the face of sanctions?In this regard, the hypothesis is tested that the trade cooperation between Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union to open a new business environment by reducing tariffs, using the existing capacities in the union and the conditions for circumventing economic sanctions, the bases of strategic cooperation Provides Iran and the Union in the long run.