Alireza Samii Isfahani; Sara Farahmand
Volume 28, Issue 118 , September 2022, , Pages 87-113
Abstract
Although the war in Ukraine is geopolitically a North-North war or Europe's concern but in effect, it is a great power competition between major world powers which is a manifestation ...
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Although the war in Ukraine is geopolitically a North-North war or Europe's concern but in effect, it is a great power competition between major world powers which is a manifestation of anticipated decline of U.S. hegemony and openly challenging the Pax Americana. In such a situation, the attitude, conduct and performance of involved actors in the war could have a critical consequence for the future of world politics.This research seeks to apply the future research methodology and the scenario planning techniques to analyze the Russia – Ukraine war and answer these questions: what will be the future scenarios of the Russia – Ukraine war? What consequences this war might have for the future of the international system? Accordingly , 4 scenarios could be proposed in 3 categories: a) Favorable scenario: Russia-China political-military alliance; containing the US and NATO and changing the rules of the international game; B) Probable scenarios: 1) peace agreement (with the role of actors such as China, Turkey, Israel, France) and changing the order of the structure of the international system, 2) the continuation of war and the continuation of tension in the international order; C) Possible scenario: the risk of nuclear war. The findings of the present study show that the war in Ukraine as a turning point / stimulus affects the international order and after the war in Ukraine, the international system will enter a new era. The implications of this war on the international level will be the polarization of international security and the geopoliticization of international politics. This war has also strengthened the leadership position of the United States at the global level, at the expense of its European partners.
