Russia's Turning to East: Theoretical Analysis of Change in Foreign Policy

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 PhD student of Russian Studies, Department of European Studies, Faculty of World Studies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

2 Full Professor of International Relation, Department of Diplomacy and International Organizations of School of International Relations, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract
 
The foreign policy of governments is dynamic and changes over time under various internal and external factors. To explain the foreign policy of countries, several theories have been proposed, one of the most important being Charles Hermann's theory of foreign policy change. In this theory, Hermann emphasizes the roles of dominant leader, bureaucratic support, internal restructuring, and external shocks as sources of foreign policy change, explaining the potential for analyzing changes in countries' foreign policies by considering internal and external factors. This research aims to investigate the effectiveness of Hermann's theory of foreign policy change in the Russian Federation, particularly from 2000 to 2023. The main question of this article is: How can Charles Hermann's foreign policy change theory explain the transformation in Russia's foreign policy under the title "Policy of Turning to the East"? In response to this question, the hypothesis is proposed that the role of Vladimir Putin as a key decision-maker, along with systemic factors such as the emergence of a new Asia-centered order, the objective threat from the United States, and the intensification of Western especially in the post-war period following Ukraine-have significantly influenced the realization of the Russian Federation's foreign policy shift towards the East. To investigate this idea, we employ thematic analysis of concepts related to change and evolution in the foreign policy direction of countries. The collection of sources has also been conducted using a documentary method (both virtual and physical).

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