‍Central Asia and The Caucasus Journal

Russia's attack on Ukraine and Bargaining Theory

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

sjeseh sa-dat jaafri 1
majid mohammad sharifi 2

1 kharazmi university

2 Kharazmi university

Abstract
Russia's attack on Ukraine has caused extensive analytical and theoretical debates among theorists of international relations. Each of these theorists, depending on their theoretical worldview and by highlighting certain dimensions, have tried to explain the causes of this war. Although these researches offer important insights into understanding the causes of war, what is still questionable is why the leaders of Russia and Ukraine, as rational activists, despite knowing that war is costly, chose this option and why negotiation failed as a less expensive way to resolve disputes. Although it is possible to answer this question by referring to the role of individual and psychological factors and focusing on the decision-making process of influential people such as Russian President Vladimir Putin, this article aims to use the findings of the bargaining theory of war and specifically the two factors of indivisibility of disputes and the problem of commitment, to explain the reasons for resorting to war in the recent Russian attack on Ukraine. The findings of the article show that, on the one hand, the indivisibility of NATO's eastward expansion policy, and on the other hand, Russia's lack of trust in Ukraine's commitment to not join NATO, were the most important factors in the war in 2022.

Keywords

Ukraine war
bargaining theory of war
indivisible issues
problem of commitment
reduction of relative power

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