The Second Karabakh War and the Power Struggle in the South Caucasus

Document Type : Research Paper

Author

Islamic Azad university of tehran

Abstract
The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War marked a pivotal juncture, initiating a significant reconfiguration of the security order in the South Caucasus and redefining the roles of regional and extra-regional actors. Within this evolving landscape, the strategic latitude of regional players is increasingly influenced by shifting power dynamics and the competing interests of dominant states. Observable changes in traditional alignments—such as the apparent decline of Russia's influence over Armenia and the expanding strategic footprints of Turkey and Israel—underscore these transformations and heighten the potential for renewed conflict. Critical variables are now shaping the emerging order, including Armenia's foreign policy reorientation, the uncertain trajectory of Armenia-Azerbaijan peace negotiations, Georgia's geopolitical positioning, and the intensified contest over strategic corridors. These developments reflect the underlying dynamics of great power competition intersecting with local rivalries. The resulting complexity, characterized by a multitude of actors and intricate interdependencies, renders outcomes increasingly unpredictable and potentially challenges conventional analytical frameworks for understanding regional security transformations

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