The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020 marked a turning point in the geopolitical dynamics of the South Caucasus region. During this conflict, Azerbaijan succeeded in regaining control over the surrounding areas of Nagorno-Karabakh after nearly three decades. Turkey’s role as a key regional actor was particularly significant. Unlike its approach in the First Nagorno-Karabakh War that limited to political support, Turkey adopted a more aggressive strategy in the second conflict, offering comprehensive political, military, and media support to Azerbaijan, thereby playing a crucial role in its victory.
The main question of this article is: what are the underlying causes of Turkey's aggressive approach during this conflict? To answer this question, the study employs the theoretical framework of neoclassical realism, which argues that the foreign policy behavior of states is not solely determined by the structure of the international system. Instead, structural factors are filtered through domestic variables such as elite perceptions, strategic culture, and internal political considerations.
Accordingly, the main hypothesis of the article is that structural factors such as Russia’s passivity, Western indifference toward resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and Turkey’s strategic alliance with Azerbaijan were interpreted and mediated by domestic factors including the consensus among Turkish political elites, a nationalist and Turkic-oriented discourse, the Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) interest in maintaining political power, and economic motivations. These combined dynamics ultimately led Turkey to adopt an aggressive foreign policy posture in the conflict. The research method is qualitative, based on a descriptive-analytical approach.