‍Central Asia and The Caucasus Journal

Abstract   The foreign policy of governments is dynamic and changes over time under various internal and external factors. To explain the foreign policy of countries, several theories have been proposed, one of the most important being Charles Hermann's theory of foreign policy change. In this theory, Hermann emphasizes the roles of dominant leader, bureaucratic support, internal restructuring, and external shocks as sources of foreign policy change, explaining the potential for analyzing changes in countries' foreign policies by considering internal and external factors. This research aims to investigate the effectiveness of Hermann's theory of foreign policy change in the Russian Federation, particularly from 2000 to 2023. The main question of this article is: How can Charles Hermann's foreign policy change theory explain the transformation in Russia's foreign policy under the title "Policy of Turning to the East"? In response to this question, the hypothesis is proposed that the role of Vladimir Putin as a key decision-maker, along with systemic factors such as the emergence of a new Asia-centered order, the objective threat from the United States, and the intensification of Western especially in the post-war period following Ukraine-have significantly influenced the realization of the Russian Federation's foreign policy shift towards the East. To investigate this idea, we employ thematic analysis of concepts related to change and evolution in the foreign policy direction of countries. The collection of sources has also been conducted using a documentary method (both virtual and physical).

Abstract Diplomacy is one of the basic concepts in political science, which has many branches today One of them is water diplomacy Considering the water shortage crisis, it plays an important role in the direction of relations between countries, especially in the field of shared water resources. Aras River is the largest border river in the country with a length of 475 kilometers and has economic, social, environmental, and security benefits. The present study, with a descriptive-analytical method, is looking for an answer to the question of how the water diplomacy of the Islamic Republic of Iran is evaluated with an emphasis on the implementation of common sovereignty in the case of the Aras River. The research findings show that due to the importance of water diplomacy for managing shared waters with neighbors, maximizing efficient water diplomacy with an emphasis on a unified view of common interests and an integrated management of the water area is essential. Making the water diplomacy of the Islamic Republic of Iran more active with Turkey, the Republic of Azerbaijan, and Armenia in many areas related to the Aras River such as the environment, especially with Armenia and also with Turkey in the field of managing the construction of dams on the Aras River can be effective.

Abstract The Russian Federation, with its huge capacities, has always been among the claimants of economic dynamism, and according to the Globalization Index (KOF) data, it has made continuous efforts for economic growth and moving in the direction of globalization. From the 18th century until now, this country has taken effective steps towards its economic dynamism by taking advantage of the "foreign direct investment" capacity despite the existence of internal, regional, and international obstacles, and in this regard, with ups and downs in the amount of FDI. has faced One of the international paradigms that are taking steps towards globalization is "sustainable development", one of its challenging points is the confrontation with uncontrolled FDI. Based on the hypotheses of "pollution haven" and "pollution halo effect" and the study of energy efficiency in this country, this research examines part of the divorce point between the two issues of FDI and SDGs. With a systematic review method, it concludes that FDI In Russia is non-green. Its increase causes the growth of CO2, methane, and other greenhouse gases, proving the PHH hypothesis and reducing the realization of SDG indicators for this country. The closeness of the conditions of Russia and the Islamic Republic Iran also gives this opportunity to domestic officials to make great efforts in the field of energy, environmental protection, and non-renewable resources and implement the environmental laws of foreign direct investment with high precision and sensitivity.

Abstract Russia's attack on Ukraine has caused extensive analytical and theoretical debates among theorists of international relations. Each of these theorists, depending on their theoretical worldview and by highlighting certain dimensions, have tried to explain the causes of this war. Although these researches offer important insights into understanding the causes of war, what is still questionable is why the leaders of Russia and Ukraine, as rational activists, despite knowing that war is costly, chose this option and why negotiation failed as a less expensive way to resolve disputes. Although it is possible to answer this question by referring to the role of individual and psychological factors and focusing on the decision-making process of influential people such as Russian President Vladimir Putin, this article aims to use the findings of the bargaining theory of war and specifically the two factors of indivisibility of disputes and the problem of commitment, to explain the reasons for resorting to war in the recent Russian attack on Ukraine. The findings of the article show that, on the one hand, the indivisibility of NATO's eastward expansion policy, and on the other hand, Russia's lack of trust in Ukraine's commitment to not join NATO, were the most important factors in the war in 2022.

Abstract After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the emergence of new independent states, one of the areas that has gradually been at the heart of Zionist Regim's attention is the set of countries in the Central Asian region; because, for Zionist Regim, these countries have special capacities and attractions to its political and security goals and objectives. As a result, Zionist Regim has prioritized its foreign relations, the optimization and development of relations with Central Asian countries, because Zionist Regim's dependence on energy is still ongoing, and these areas can meet the needs of Zionist Regim's fossil fuels and will largely overcome it. On the other hand, in recent years, the developments in the Middle East region, such as the Arab Spring, the importance of political Islam, the spread of jihadi armed movements, and the emergence of Iran as a nuclear power, have led Zionist Regim to increasingly feel threatened and to expand relations with Central Asian Countries to fulfill its goals, including countering the security environment of Iran. Given this important point, this article seeks to find an answer to the question of what goals Zionist Regim is seeking to expand its presence and influence in Central Asia. In line with the search for a logical answer to the question, this hypothesis has been analyzed, "the expansion of the presence and influence of the Zionist Regime in Central Asia, is in the direction of unity and convergence with the countries of this region, to break the siege of the opposing states of Zionist Regim put into creating divergence and putting pressure on Iran's peripheral environment and its national security. The methodological bases in this article are the theories of coalition and divergence, and the research method is also qualitative of causal type.

Abstract China is considered the most important emerging power in world politics in the early decades of the third millennium. The stunning economic rise of this country and the promotion of its position in the international system have made China's foreign policy behavior important to encountering various international trends and events. Following September 11 and the expansion of terrorist activities on an international scale, the need to deal with terrorism should become the main priority of the countries of the world. The role and position of China in the international system and the political economy requirements of this country at different national, regional and global levels have caused the impact of terrorism on China's internal, regional and international security interests. Based on this, how to manage terrorist threats from China and the complexity of this country's relations with other great powers, especially the United States as the largest country claiming to deal with terrorism on the other hand, analyzing the place of terrorism in China's foreign and security policy and the policy of this country's confrontation with has turned the mentioned phenomenon into a subject of study and research. In this regard, the main question of the current research is that what policy does China follow in confrontation with the phenomenon of terrorism? The hypothesis of the research in the framework of the assumptions and themes of the theory of institutionalism is that China's policy towards terrorism can be understood in the form of an institutional multilateralism approach in international relations.

Abstract Undoubtedly, developing exports in developing countries will increase the added value of products, investment in research and development, foreign direct investment, and creation of job opportunities. This research was carried out to provide a model of factors affecting Iran's cement export to CIS countries and the effectiveness of spanning marketing capabilities. This research was of a qualitative type and with an approach of foundational data theory, which was compiled with MAXQDA software and using the coding method. The statistical population consisted of 13 cement industry experts who were purposefully selected and interviewed. The findings showed that causal conditions include managers' bias and commitment to export, sales engineering, specialized knowledge of employees, creativity and innovation, research and development, pricing, distribution channels, promotion and advertising, product quality, competitiveness, and introducing the company's capabilities and packaging. LT is. Background conditions include customs rules and regulations, political and economic support of the government for export, information technology and computer networks, logistics, and transportation, support of the cement industry trade association, and support of the Chamber of Commerce for export. Also, the intervening conditions include foreign exchange obligations, traditional marketing, economic war, force majeure conditions, customs and culture of countries, and price dumping, and strategies include market research, customer relationship management, strategic planning, pricing strategy, capillary marketing strategy, export marketing SWOT, The budget is for export marketing, risk management, human resource development and specialized training of employees. The consequences of the project include branding, improvement, and 

Abstract Today, China has become the largest foreign player in its sensitive periphery, Central Asia. Beijing leaders, especially since the beginning of the new century, have tried to gradually increase their presence and influence in this region compared to other competitors such as Russia and the United States by announcing numerous economic, security, and political initiatives and programs. This increase in presence has been done in a gradual and multi-faceted manner according to the usual Chinese tradition, and therefore a direct link can be established between the foreign aid program of this country to the region and the development of its presence and influence. In this regard, the main question of the article, using the descriptive and explanatory method, is how China has benefited from foreign aid in the years 2000 to 2022 to advance its national interests in Central Asia. In response to this hypothesis, it is proposed that the Chinese government uses its foreign aid program in this region to advance economic goals (linking the economies of the countries in the region with their economic and commercial needs), security goals (shaping their desired security order and fighting Uighurs separatism) and political goals (expanding its influence and position in the countries of the region). The findings of the article emphasize the explanatory role of foreign aid in explaining China's policies and goals in the peripheral area of Central Asia, which has received little attention from experts.

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Abstract English Abstracts of Articles