‍Central Asia and The Caucasus Journal

Abstract

Abstract This article traces India and China's rivalry in the Indo-Pacific as a newly emerging pivot region. These recent developments, which have been extremely violent and include military conflicts with casualties, have greatly damaged bilateral relations. While examining the reasons for the fall of bilateral relations to the lowest level, this article answers the question of how the Indo-Pacific structure has placed India and China in a competitive relationship with each other. The hypothesis of the article is that apart from specific bilateral disputes, Sino-Indian relations have been affected by global and regional developments. The increase in tension between the United States of America and China, and the evolution of the Indo-Pacific structure are among the reasons that have increased the distance and mistrust between the two countries. China's efforts in the fight for strategic areas, China's increasing influence in India's neighboring countries and the Belt and Road Initiative on the one hand, and India's actions in the form of establishing strategic alliances, the quadrilateral security dialogue and the Look East policy on the other hand, on the neighboring countries. It has been influential and has forced them to make complex choices in the field of political-security interactions and commercial-economic development.

Abstract The Aras River is one of the major common water sources entering Iran, which has experienced a special hydropolitical situation in the context of time and as a result of the geopolitical relations of the coastal countries of this watershed. Therefore, the present study seeks to analyze the impact of the geopolitical relations pattern between these countries on its hydropolitical situation, emphasizing the components of water quality and environmental pollution. To achieve the aforementioned goal, a descriptive-analytical method and library resources, articles and reliable Internet databases, and the results of research related to the water quality of the Aras River have been used. According to the findings of the study, Armenia is known to be the main polluter of the Aras River, which pollutes the Aras River and reduces its water quality through industrial wastewater and heavy metals. However, the conflicting geopolitical alignments between the countries of the Aras River basin and, consequently, the interactive geopolitical relationship pattern between Iran and Armenia, and the two countries' location on one side of the regional geopolitical alignments, along with Armenia's upstream and hydropower location, have caused this country to not respond positively to control measures and prevent pollutants from entering the Aras, and the decline in water quality and environmental pollution has continued. Accordingly, it is necessary to create a legal structure in international forums and form a water-based organization with the aim of consensus-building, monitoring, and controlling the crisis-causing aspects of this basin, especially from the perspective of environmental pollution.

Abstract The purpose of this article is to analyze the impacts of the implementation of the (CPEC) on Iran's geo-economic position. CPEC, one of the major regional infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative, includes an extensive network in three main areas of infrastructure, energy, and economic development. Geographically, CPEC is not just a bilateral project that will strengthen relations between China and Pakistan, promote economic development in Pakistan, and enhance China's regional influence in South Asia, but it also has significant regional dimensions and impacts. In terms of subject matter, this project is not necessarily economic and has political, social, and even security dimensions. In this text, CPEC will have impacts on Iran's regional geo-economic position, which will be particularly noticeable in the two areas of energy (gas exports) and infrastructure (transit). This article uses an explanatory method and within the conceptual framework of the new geo-economics attempts to investigate these effects. The findings of the article show that although the impact of CPEC on Iran's geo-economic position is a combination of opportunities and challenges, and from the perspective of opportunity, Iran can adopt a smart policy, including linking its geo-economy with CPEC in the form of its macro-cooperation with China, to use this project as an opportunity for development and strengthening its regional position. However, it seems that its challenging dimension, including by reducing Pakistan's demand for gas imports from Iran and upgrading the transit position of this country, including theGwadar port againstChabahar, will weaken Iran's geo-economic position.

Abstract The North-South Corridor is an economic-political plan designed to facilitate transportation and, consequently, increase global trade exchanges. This plan, which is considered a strategic and important project for the countries along this corridor—namely Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, and India, as well as the surrounding countries—can play a significant role in enabling these nations to benefit from its positive effects. Due to various geopolitical and geoeconomic reasons, Iran has become the focal point of this important and strategic project. This research aims to examine the role of the North-South Corridor in the political economy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, utilizing the theoretical framework of neoliberalism and drawing on library and internet resources, employing a descriptive-analytical method. In this regard, it seeks to answer the question of how the North-South Corridor can influence Iran's political economy. In response, the hypothesis is examined that the North-South Corridor can impact the political economy of the Islamic Republic of Iran by reducing transportation time and costs, increasing trade exchanges, enhancing geopolitical positioning, decreasing dependence on the West, and ultimately strengthening regional cooperation. The findings of the research confirm the research hypothesis and also indicate that the implementation of the mentioned plan will be important for facilitating and accelerating the process of de-dollarization and neutralizing Western sanctions.

Abstract Emerging powers have been recognized as a new form of power in the international arena. In this regard, some countries, including Iran, can be considered as an emerging power. The research question is: What is the foreign policy strategy of emerging powers in general and the foreign policy strategy of Iran in the Central Asian- the South Caucasus, and Southwest Asia? The research results show that emerging powers mainly use strategies such as hard balancing, Band wagoning, hedging, Accommodation, appeasement, and soft balancing to achieve their goals. In case of Iran, it should be noted that this country is trying to block American hegemony in Central Asia, in the framework of a soft balancing strategy, with the support of Russia and China. In the South Caucasus, it uses a strategy of hedging and balancing from the outside to contain Türkiye and the Republic of Azerbaijan. this country uses different strategies in Southwest Asia and its various subregions. For example, in the Levant, a hard balancing act is being pursued to contain Israel and accommodation to contain Türkiye. In the Persian Gulf, it has used hedging to contain the UAE-Saudi Arabia axis. The aim of this research is to examine the foreign policy strategy of emerging powers, with an emphasis on the foreign policy strategy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the two environments of Central Asia - Caucasus and Southwest Asia. The research method used is a theory-case matching and qualitative comparison method using a descriptive-analytical approach.

Abstract Russia's foreign policy has been significantly shaped by the concept of pragmatism throughout its history, particularly in recent decades. This article seeks to provide a clearer explanation of how this pragmatism can be analyzed in the conduct of Russian statesmen. The central question posed is: how does "Gorchakovism" demonstrate the dimensions of Russian pragmatism in historical and empirical contexts? The hypothesis advanced here is that the restoration of Russia's international status after its defeat in the Crimean War (1853–1857) and the Treaty of Paris, achieved through a step-by-step diplomatic approach and the effective utilization of opportunities within Europe's geopolitical environment, established Gorchakov as a historical emblem of Russian pragmatism. To examine this hypothesis, the authors employ the theory of pragmatism in foreign policy and a qualitative analysis of historical texts, political literature, and Russia's international developments. The primary finding of this article is that in the realm of international politics, national interests can only be effectively pursued through pragmatic, calculated, and incremental diplomacy. Furthermore, abstract ideals, unless they possess tangible applicability, risk leading nations and states toward collapse and failure.

Abstract Deep geopolitical changes in the South Caucasus have had a significant impact on the relations between Iran and the Republic of Armenia. The geographical location and strategic importance have turned this region into one of the most important regions in the world, and the active presence of regional and extra-regional actors has had a direct impact on this relationship. This research seeks to evaluate the behavioral pattern of Iran and Armenia in the South Caucasus region, especially after the changes caused by the Second Karabakh War in 2020, because the Second Karabakh War changed the balance of regional power, the strategic environment and the perspective of arrangements. It has revolutionized the geopolitics of the South Caucasus. In this regard, the main question of the research is raised in this way, what was the behavior pattern of the Islamic Republic of Iran towards Armenia in the South Caucasus region? Using the concept of geo-polynomics, it is argued that Tehran's behavioral pattern to maintain the balance of power in the South Caucasus region is to expand the political, security and economic relationship with Armenia, especially after the second Karabakh war; Of course, geopolinomic concZangzor Corridor and military-intelligence exchange have remained strong, which after 2020 will increase tensions in the South Caucasus, especially between Iran and the opposite bloc. which includes Azerbaijan, Turkey and thonist regime. We do this important based on the descriptive-analytical approach using qualitative research methods that have been used in collecting information from documentary-library sources and authentic cyberspace websites.

Abstract Problem Statement: The political and social interactions of the Islamic Republic of Iran in foreign policy encompass processes through which states adopt and implement foreign policy and respond to the foreign policies of other countries. The literature of international relations emphasizes that domestic politics plays a fundamental role in shaping foreign policy. Therefore, this research aims to identify the pattern of political and social interactions of the Islamic Republic of Iran in foreign policy with Azerbaijan.
Methodology: This research adopts a qualitative approach using the grounded theory method. The study's target population includes senior government officials, policymakers, and professors in the field of foreign policy and international relations. Sampling was conducted purposively and snowballing, with data gathered through exploratory interviews.
Findings: Data analysis revealed that the pattern of political and social interactions of the Islamic Republic of Iran in foreign policy with Azerbaijan consists of five main components: causal conditions (national interests, realism, domestic policies, countering sanctions, etc.), contextual conditions (support, service to elites, participation, trust-building, etc.), intervening factors (weak diplomacy, economic problems, executive inefficiencies), strategies (balancing, de-escalation, controlling public opinion and media, strengthening hard power), and outcomes (economic development, strengthening economic alliances, etc.).
Results: The findings of this research highlight the importance of identifying the various dimensions of the political and social interactions of the Islamic Republic of Iran in foreign policy with neighboring countries, particularly the Republic of Azerbaijan. These results can assist policymakers in the field of international relations in improving and enhancing political and social interactions.

Abstract Today, the role of emerging powers in the Middle East is very important in the framework of global politics and influence in the region. China and Russia, as two countries with unique capabilities in the field of politics and economy, have been able to strengthen their influence in this region. This research examines the new strategic policies of these two powers in the Middle East. The main question of this research is as follows; What strategies have Russia and China used to increase and strengthen their influence in the Middle East? Which one has been more successful? The hypothesis of the research is that Russia and China by focusing on three main strategies namely; Strengthening and developing economic relations, seeking regional leadership through increasing political presence and influence and positive image of themselves in the region are trying to increase their influence and influence in the Middle East. This research tries to investigate this issue with descriptive analytical method and using library sources.

Abstract طی سه دهه سپری‌شده از فروپاشی شوروی، امنیت و توسعه از اهداف یکایک کشورهای آسیای مرکزی بوده که تحقق آنها همواره تحت‌الشعاع شماری از محدودیت‌ها و تهدیدها بوده است. منشأ برخی از این تهدیدها افغانستان بوده، که عبارتند از تروریسم، افراطی‌گری مذهبی، و عرضه و قاچاق مواد مخدر. یکسان نبودن میزان این تهدیدها برای کشورهای منطقه منجر به تفاوت دیدگاه‌های این کشورها در قبال مسائل افغانستان شده است. سیاست خارجی ازبکستان در قبال افغانستان شامل دو مرحله می‌شود؛ مرحله اول (1991-2016)، مرحله حفظ فاصله و رویکرد محتاطانه نسبت به افغانستان و مرحله دوم (2016 - تاکنون)، که مرحله توسعه روابط سیاسی و اقتصادی است. این پژوهش به‌دنبال پاسخ به این پرسش است که سیاست خارجی ازبکستان در قبال افغانستان در دوره شوکت میرضیایف دنباله‌رو سیاست اسلام کریم‌اف (سیاست درهای بسته) است یا مشی دیگری دارد؟ در پاسخ، این فرضیه مطرح می‌شود که سیاست خارجی ازبکستان در دوره میرضیایف در قبال افغانستان سیاست درهای باز است و با وجود سقوط نظام جمهوریت و استقرار طالبان در رأس قدرت، در تکاپو برای افزایش ارتباطات و همکاری‌ها با امارت اسلامی افغانستان است. یافته‌های این پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که خط‌مشی تاشکند در خصوص روابطش با کابل در چارچوب راهبرد سیاست خارجی میرضیایف با روی کار آمدن وی دچار تغییراتی شد و سرنگونی حکومت اشرف غنی و حاکمیت یافتن طالبان نیز دگرگونی‌ قابل توجهی در این سیاست پدید نیاورد. با توجه به رویکرد بررسی مقایسه‌ای و تمرکز بر مرحلۀ توصیفی آن، روش مورد استفاده در این نوشتار کیفی و از نوع مقایسه‌ای است.

Abstract