‍Central Asia and The Caucasus Journal

Abstract China's "One Belt, One Road" Initiative and Iran's Political Economy (2013-2021)

Abstract: The "One Belt, One Road" initiative, designed and implemented in 2013 as one of the largest economic projects, was proposed with the aim of strengthening China's position as a global power in the economic, trade, and political spheres. Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic of Iran is known as one of the key nodes of this plan due to its strategic location in the North-South and East-West transportation corridors, as well as its rich energy resources. The purpose of this research is to examine the opportunities and challenges of the "One Belt, One Road" initiative for Iran's political economy. The results indicate that this initiative can strengthen Iran's geopolitical position in the region, while developing key Iranian infrastructure, including transportation and energy, attracting foreign direct investment, and strengthening economic relations with countries along the path of the plan. But on the other hand, greater economic and political dependence on China, increased imports of Chinese goods, lack of transparency in investments, and problems resulting from international sanctions are among the challenges that Iran will face in dealing with this plan.

Abstract The Identity Factor in China's Foreign Policy: A Comparative Assessment of the Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping Eras National identity is one of the fundamental factors shaping states’ foreign policy, with China serving as a prominent example of its profound influence on foreign policy decision-making. The main objective of this study is to conduct a comparative analysis of the impact of components of national identity and identity-shaping discourses on China’s foreign policy during the leadership periods of Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping. The central research question explores how national identity and prevailing identity discourses have influenced the direction and orientation of China’s foreign policy across these two eras. The research hypothesis posits that while the core principles of China’s foreign policy have exhibited considerable continuity, shifts in identity discourses and perceptions of China’s global position have resulted in notable changes in foreign policy priorities and approaches. The findings demonstrate that the Hu Jintao era was marked by a cautious and pragmatic approach, emphasizing economic development, multilateralism, and international cooperation. In contrast, Xi Jinping’s leadership has been characterized by a stronger emphasis on national identity, the integrated use of hard and soft power, and the pursuit of a more assertive and strategically proactive global role for China. Overall, evolving perceptions of China’s position in the international order and the growing focus on national power have been the primary drivers behind the transformation of the country’s foreign policy.

Abstract The present study examines the geopolitical challenges of exploiting oil and gas resources in the Caspian Sea between Iran and Turkmenistan. The primary research question is what factors underlie the energy differences between the two countries and whether these differences are solely due to legal issues or are also influenced by national interests and pressure from transregional actors. The research hypothesis is based on the fact that existing geopolitical challenges are the result of a complex interaction among the legal structure, conflicting national interests, and competition between regional and transregional actors. The research method combines analytical and qualitative approaches, utilizing document content analysis and a review of specialized books and articles. Data were collected from written sources, agreements, Caspian conventions, and scientific articles and were examined based on three levels of analysis (structural, national and regional, and transregional). The findings show that the Caspian’s legal ambiguities, the pressure of sanctions and internal Iranian restrictions, Turkmenistan’s export strategies, and the influence of Russia, China, and the United States have all contributed to the persistence and intensification of disputes. These results confirm the research hypothesis and indicate that sustainable management of Caspian energy resources requires a combined approach of joint agreements, active diplomacy, and strengthening domestic capacity.

Abstract In recent years, the position of the Russian language in the political, economic, and cultural spheres of Central Asia and the South Caucasus has faced emerging challenges. This study aims to analyze the role of Russian as an instrument of regional influence, focusing on post-Soviet language policies of selected states. Using a documentary analysis method and drawing on academic literature, institutional reports, and official data, the research explores the relationship between language, power, and regional organizations such as the Eurasian Economic Union and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The findings indicate that while some states (e.g., Georgia and Turkmenistan) have pursued policies of linguistic disengagement, others (e.g., Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia) maintain Russian as a second official language. The novelty of this research lies in its integrative approach to analyzing the new linguistic competition with Turkish, Chinese, and English, while assessing Russian’s role in regional convergence through the lens of soft power.

Abstract In this article, while objectively describing what happened in the past few years, the issue of Afghanistan's importance for Iran, the level of connection and solidarity between the two countries, how the threats from Afghanistan are increasing for Iran and to stabilize What should be done about these links and curbing the increasing threats.
The main question of this article is what Iran should do to control the threats from Afghanistan and stabilize the cultural and economic conditions in the Afghanistan
The claim of this article is that Iran is heavily involved in the costs and consequences of Afghanistan's problems, and it has no choice but to deal with the roots of Afghanistan's problems, and Iran is the only one that can. Iran should bring Afghanistan's issues to peace on the condition of adopting appropriate policies and management and mobilizing capabilities.
This linkage between two countries is unique among Iran's relations with other countries and even less so in the relations between the other two countries. At the same time, the issue of Afghanistan has been neglected in Iran for a long time and the necessary attention is not given to it in decision-making centers, decision-making centers and even research and academic centers. Iran has no other choices rather than takes Afghanistan issue as its top priority and help to solve the roots the problem

Abstract The literature of international relations suggests that domestic political and social interactions play a significant role in shaping the foreign policies of states. Within this framework, the present study aims to design and explain a model of political and social interactions between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan and to explore how these interactions influence Iran’s foreign policy. The main research question is: how do Iran’s internal dynamics impact its foreign policy towards Azerbaijan? To answer this question, a sequential exploratory mixed-methods approach was adopted. In the qualitative phase, grounded theory and in-depth interviews were used to identify the main components of the interaction model. Subsequently, a quantitative phase using structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) tested the relationships among variables. The findings indicate that elements such as national interests, social participation, diplomatic inefficiencies, media control, and balance-oriented strategies play a vital role in shaping Iran’s foreign policy. The quantitative results confirmed the validity and reliability of the model and emphasized the importance of internal factors in foreign policy formulation.

Abstract Transboundary rivers—the Irtysh and the Ili—constitute vital sources of drinking water, irrigation, and energy production for Kazakhstan. Their upstream origins in China confer distinct hydropolitical and geopolitical significance. This study investigates Kazakhstan’s hydropolitical challenges and water security concerns in its interactions with China, analyzing the factors that undermine the sustainable management of shared water resources. The central research question is: “How do Kazakhstan’s dependence on China’s upstream water flows and the absence of a binding institutional framework affect the country’s water, economic, and environmental security?”The study’s hypothesis posits that: “The lack of a binding institutional mechanism, combined with China’s control over upstream water resources, intensifies hydropolitical tensions and threatens Kazakhstan’s water, economic, and environmental security.” The findings indicate that China, through its geographical leverage, material capabilities, economic bargaining power, influence, has reduced water inflows to Kazakhstan and consolidated its hydropolitical hegemony. This dynamic heightens Kazakhstan’s vulnerability in water resource management, diminishes water security, and jeopardizes environmentally and economically sustainable development. It also discourages the raising of sensitive issues—such as limits on water extraction—to avoid jeopardizing China’s regional investments. The results further underscore that establishing institutional mechanisms, strengthening transboundary water diplomacy, and adopting multidimensional approaches to water resource management can mitigate the risks posed by upstream hegemony and enhance Kazakhstan’s security and sustainable development.